{
 "polls": [
  {
   "party": "National",
   "value": 29.8
  },
  {
   "party": "Labour",
   "value": 27.9
  },
  {
   "party": "Greens",
   "value": 15.2
  },
  {
   "party": "ACT",
   "value": 10.0
  },
  {
   "party": "NZ First",
   "value": 9.9
  },
  {
   "party": "Opportunity",
   "value": 6.2
  },
  {
   "party": "Te Pāti Māori",
   "value": 1.4
  }
 ],
 "seats": {
  "National": 36,
  "ACT": 12,
  "NZ First": 12,
  "Opportunity": 7,
  "Labour": 33,
  "Greens": 18,
  "Te Pāti Māori": 2
 },
 "lenses": [
  {
   "grouping": "G01",
   "short": "Cost of living",
   "voter_share": 33.7,
   "weight_2050_share": 2.5
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G02",
   "short": "Health",
   "voter_share": 16.8,
   "weight_2050_share": 5.9
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G03",
   "short": "Economy and jobs",
   "voter_share": 18.2,
   "weight_2050_share": 16.0
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G04",
   "short": "Housing",
   "voter_share": 6.3,
   "weight_2050_share": 6.7
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G05",
   "short": "Crime and justice",
   "voter_share": 5.0,
   "weight_2050_share": 3.4
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G06",
   "short": "Climate and energy",
   "voter_share": 5.6,
   "weight_2050_share": 12.6
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G07",
   "short": "Education",
   "voter_share": 3.0,
   "weight_2050_share": 6.7
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G08",
   "short": "Migration",
   "voter_share": 3.6,
   "weight_2050_share": 5.9
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G09",
   "short": "Tax and retirement",
   "voter_share": 2.6,
   "weight_2050_share": 16.0
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G10",
   "short": "Infrastructure",
   "voter_share": 1.7,
   "weight_2050_share": 9.2
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G11",
   "short": "Te Tiriti",
   "voter_share": 2.3,
   "weight_2050_share": 3.4
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G12",
   "short": "Defence and trade",
   "voter_share": 0.7,
   "weight_2050_share": 9.2
  },
  {
   "grouping": "G13",
   "short": "Community and culture",
   "voter_share": 0.7,
   "weight_2050_share": 2.5
  }
 ],
 "treasury_debt": {
  "unit": "% of GDP, net core Crown debt",
  "base": [
   [
    2025,
    42.7
   ],
   [
    2030,
    46.0
   ],
   [
    2035,
    53.6
   ],
   [
    2040,
    66.0
   ],
   [
    2045,
    82.6
   ],
   [
    2050,
    103.6
   ]
  ],
  "favourable": [
   [
    2025,
    42.7
   ],
   [
    2030,
    45.8
   ],
   [
    2035,
    49.3
   ],
   [
    2040,
    54.4
   ],
   [
    2045,
    61.9
   ],
   [
    2050,
    71.0
   ]
  ],
  "unfavourable": [
   [
    2025,
    42.7
   ],
   [
    2030,
    44.9
   ],
   [
    2035,
    48.5
   ],
   [
    2040,
    61.7
   ],
   [
    2045,
    86.3
   ],
   [
    2050,
    126.2
   ]
  ],
  "interest_high": [
   [
    2025,
    42.7
   ],
   [
    2030,
    46.1
   ],
   [
    2035,
    57.0
   ],
   [
    2040,
    75.2
   ],
   [
    2045,
    99.7
   ],
   [
    2050,
    131.6
   ]
  ],
  "interest_low": [
   [
    2025,
    42.7
   ],
   [
    2030,
    45.9
   ],
   [
    2035,
    50.3
   ],
   [
    2040,
    57.6
   ],
   [
    2045,
    68.0
   ],
   [
    2050,
    81.4
   ]
  ],
  "note": "Treasury He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025, unchanged policy (from Budget 2025 forecasts), favourable and unfavourable combined scenarios. The report current-settings path (96% in 2050) restarts this path from PREFU 2026 (39.5% in 2030/31). All points from the Treasury LTFS 2025 charts data workbook (Figures 19, 21 and 28)."
 },
 "party_debt_2050": [
  {
   "party": "ACT",
   "own_figures": 74,
   "with_omitted_costs": 85
  },
  {
   "party": "Greens",
   "own_figures": 86,
   "with_omitted_costs": 115
  },
  {
   "party": "Te Pāti Māori",
   "own_figures": 95,
   "with_omitted_costs": 109
  },
  {
   "party": "National",
   "own_figures": 96,
   "with_omitted_costs": 97
  },
  {
   "party": "Labour",
   "own_figures": 96,
   "with_omitted_costs": 97
  },
  {
   "party": "Opportunity",
   "own_figures": 100,
   "with_omitted_costs": 138
  },
  {
   "party": "NZ First",
   "own_figures": 104,
   "with_omitted_costs": 119
  }
 ],
 "waterfalls_4yr_bn": {
  "National": [
   [
    "Health",
    14.57
   ],
   [
    "Other spending",
    2.6
   ],
   [
    "Savings",
    -1.01
   ]
  ],
  "Labour": [
   [
    "Health",
    13.02
   ],
   [
    "Other spending",
    11.12
   ],
   [
    "New revenue",
    -10.93
   ]
  ],
  "ACT": [
   [
    "Tax cuts, spending",
    8.82
   ],
   [
    "Spending cuts",
    -13.93
   ],
   [
    "Super age 67",
    -4.06
   ],
   [
    "Other savings",
    -3.99
   ]
  ],
  "Greens": [
   [
    "New taxes",
    -32.19
   ],
   [
    "Income tax cut",
    10.01
   ],
   [
    "Spending",
    13.08
   ]
  ],
  "net": {
   "National": 16.16,
   "Labour": 13.21,
   "ACT": -13.16,
   "Greens": -9.09
  },
  "period": "2027/28 to 2030/31, party figures"
 },
 "timeline": {
  "elections": [
   2026,
   2029,
   2032,
   2035,
   2038,
   2041,
   2044,
   2047,
   2050
  ],
  "milestones": [
   [
    2028.5,
    "Surplus forecast",
    "Treasury, 2028/29"
   ],
   [
    2032,
    "Defence 2% of GDP",
    "target year"
   ],
   [
    2035,
    "Super age 67",
    "ACT's plan"
   ],
   [
    2040,
    "Debt near 66% of GDP",
    "Treasury, unchanged policy"
   ],
   [
    2049,
    "Debt passes 100%",
    "Treasury, unchanged policy"
   ],
   [
    2050,
    "Net zero target",
    "2.8 workers per retiree"
   ]
  ]
 }
}