[ { "code": "G01", "name": "Cost of living and incomes", "short": "Cost of living", "voter_weight": 102, "weight_2050": 3, "problem_voters_feel": "Food, fuel, power and rent take a bigger share of household budgets, and incomes have not kept up.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Food, fuel, power and rent take a larger share of household budgets than before 2021, and inflation has run above target. Parties are offering everything from price-gouging bans and supermarket break-ups to tax cuts, wage rules and benefit changes.", "number_to_know": "63% of New Zealanders name cost of living as a top concern, the top issue in every Ipsos wave since 2022 (Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor, September 2026).", "source": { "title": "Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor, 34th wave, September 2026", "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/en-nz/34th-ipsos-nz-issues-monitor-sept-2026" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "To 2050, living costs are set by productivity (which sets real wages), housing supply and energy prices, not by this year's relief payments. One-off support that is not paid for adds to the fiscal gap a smaller workforce will have to close.", "number_to_know": "Treasury estimates that delaying fiscal adjustment by 40 years could lower average incomes by about $6,800 a year.", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, "pressures": [ "P2" ] }, "status_quo": "A Grocery Commissioner regulates supermarkets with no forced break-up; the minimum wage is reviewed yearly; benefits rise with prices and carry sanctions. The Government added a temporary $50 a week to the In-Work Tax Credit this year and cancelled the 12c fuel excise rise due in 2027, with 5c steps from 2028.", "options": [ { "option": "Force more competition in groceries (split Foodstuffs, separate wholesale, a public chain, or Commerce Commission power to separate firms)", "parties": [ "National", "Labour", "Greens", "NZ First", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Ease entry for new supermarkets rather than break up incumbents", "parties": [ "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Cut income tax for low and middle earners, paid for by taxes on wealth, firms or land", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Ban price gouging on essentials", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Raise in-work and family payments", "parties": [ "NZ First", "Greens", "National" ] }, { "option": "Tighten benefit rules (lower rates for long-term Jobseekers, longer residence stand-downs, money cards)", "parties": [ "National", "ACT", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Freeze the adult minimum wage for three years", "parties": [ "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Cap or remove public transport fares", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens", "Opportunity" ] } ], "test_2050": "National and Opportunity do most to build the 2050 position, by changing market structure and, for Opportunity, shifting tax from work to land, so costs fall for good rather than for one year. NZ First and the Greens add the most ongoing payments without full funding (Kiwi Kids Grant, In-Work Tax Credit, KiwiMart, liveable benefits), which leans on later budgets. No party links cost of living to the productivity gap that sets real wages to 2050.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Foodstuffs split and benefit work tests", "why": "A third grocery competitor lowers margins for good, and moving long-term Jobseekers into work lifts labour supply.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, More Grocery Competition (PDF, 16 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916084026mp_/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20Grocery%20Competition.pdf?v=1789522994" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Price gouging ban, fare cap, pay equity", "why": "Mostly redistributes or caps prices rather than changing productivity; wholesale separation could build competition but is untested.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Banning price gouging (PDF, 18 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260918041313/https://www.labour.org.nz/banning-price-gouging" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Income tax cut funded by wealth tax; KiwiMart", "why": "Shifts incomes towards low and middle earners without a clear productivity path, and KiwiMart is unfunded.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Minimum wage freeze; easier supermarket entry", "why": "Cheaper entry-level hiring and new entrants could lift jobs and competition, but a falling real wage floor cuts low incomes.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF, 15 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "In-Work Tax Credit rise; gentailer and Foodstuffs splits", "why": "Market splits could lower prices, but unfunded family payments add to later budgets.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "NZ First, NZ First to Increase Working for Families, Minimum Wage (10 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233947/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_to_increase_working_for_families_minimum_wage" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "$30,000 tax-free band and kai credit", "why": "Raises low incomes by moving tax onto wealth and land, with no stated effect on productivity.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Land value tax and Citizen's Income", "why": "Moving tax from work to land lowers house prices and benefit clawbacks, improving incentives to work and build.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Current settings regulate supermarkets and index benefits to prices but leave the drivers (market structure, housing, energy) largely untouched; relief such as the temporary $50 In-Work Tax Credit top-up and the cancelled 2027 fuel excise rise is funded and delivered through existing agencies.", "relief_rationale": "Current settings add nothing new this term: the $50 a week In-Work Tax Credit top-up is temporary, and cancelling the 12c fuel excise rise due in 2027 avoids a cost rather than lowering one, with 5c steps from 2028. Benefits keep rising with prices.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, NZ First to Increase Working for Families, Minimum Wage (10 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233947/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_to_increase_working_for_families_minimum_wage" }, { "title": "National, Government cancels fuel tax hike (31 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902234943/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260831-partynews" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 3, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 17, "voter_15": 13, "rationale": "Targets grocery market structure with a published cost-benefit analysis and modelled 3.5% to 5% lower prices, legislated within 100 days through the Commerce Commission and costed in its fiscal plan; names long-term Jobseekers as losers, but those welfare cuts are likely to be reversed by a left government, so Durability is 2 not 3.", "relief_rationale": "Paid parental leave rises to 27 weeks in Budget 2027 and 30 weeks by 2029, and the Foodstuffs split is legislated within 100 days with modelled prices 3.5% to 5% lower; but long-term Jobseekers lose income from April 2028.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, More Grocery Competition (PDF, 16 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916084026mp_/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20Grocery%20Competition.pdf?v=1789522994" }, { "title": "National, A firm, fair and affordable welfare system (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008023106/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/A%20firm,%20fair%20and%20affordable%20welfare%20system.pdf?v=1791407915" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Competition reform in groceries, tighter welfare, and family support inside its fiscal plan; no tax cuts this term.", "policies": [ "Split Foodstuffs into two national cooperatives through a Commerce Commission plan, law within 100 days; modelled prices 3.5% to 5% lower than otherwise", "Cut Jobseeker rates for people on the benefit two of the last three years from April 2028; five years' residence before benefits", "Paid parental leave to 30 weeks by 2029", "Delay fuel excise and road user charge rises to 2028, then 5c steps" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, More Grocery Competition (PDF, 16 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916084026mp_/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20Grocery%20Competition.pdf?v=1789522994", "date": "2026-09-16", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, A firm, fair and affordable welfare system (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008023106/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/A%20firm,%20fair%20and%20affordable%20welfare%20system.pdf?v=1791407915", "date": "2026-10-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Modernising Paid Parental Leave", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214521/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/paid-parental-leave", "date": "2026-07-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Names market power as the driver (price gouging law, wholesale separation, fuel and banking competition) with plausible but untested paths; care worker pay is in its fiscal plan, but the fare cap and three-year fuel excise freeze have no clear funding line in the evidence checked, so Funding is 1.", "relief_rationale": "Dated relief for meaningful groups: a $20 weekly fare cap ($10 outside the main cities) from 1 July 2027, $4 an hour more for 65,000 care workers from the start of 2027, a three-year fuel excise freeze and yearly minimum wage rises. The price gouging ban and wholesale separation have no modelled price effect.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Banning price gouging (PDF, 18 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260918041313/https://www.labour.org.nz/banning-price-gouging" }, { "title": "Labour, $20 Public Transport Fare Cap", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811025742/https://www.labour.org.nz/farecap" }, { "title": "Labour, A fair go for Kiwi drivers (5 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006014950/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-a-fair-go-for-kiwi-drivers/" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" } ], "headline": "Go after market power in groceries, fuel, banking and airfares, and lift low pay.", "policies": [ "Make price gouging on essentials illegal, with Commerce Commission powers to take dominant firms to court", "Separate supermarket wholesale from retail; freeze fuel excise for three years", "$20 weekly public transport fare cap in the three main cities ($10 elsewhere) from 1 July 2027", "Restore pay equity within 100 days; $4 an hour rise for 65,000 care workers from 2027; raise the minimum wage every year" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Banning price gouging (PDF, 18 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260918041313/https://www.labour.org.nz/banning-price-gouging", "date": "2026-09-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, $20 Public Transport Fare Cap", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811025742/https://www.labour.org.nz/farecap", "date": "2026-06-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to restore pay equity, immediate pay rise for care and support workers (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006043551/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-restore-pay-equity-immediate-pay-rise-for-care-and-support-workers/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, A vote for National means three years of frozen wages (15 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261009030931/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-a-vote-for-national-means-three-years-of-frozen-wages/", "date": "2026-09-15", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Diagnoses low incomes and supermarket market power; the income tax cut is modelled by the Parliamentary Library and paid for by the wealth tax, but KiwiMart ($2.8b) and liveable benefits have no stated funding or timetable.", "relief_rationale": "An income tax cut for everyone under $160,000 (first $10,000 tax-free) would be broad, about $27 a week at $40,000, but no start date or in-term year is given in the inputs or by web search; doubled food grants, KiwiMart and liveable benefits are also undated.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" }, { "title": "Green Party, Affordable food for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/affordable_food_for_all_of_us" }, { "title": "Green Party, Income (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025718/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_income" } ], "headline": "Redistribute through tax and benefits, and take part of the supermarket market into public hands.", "policies": [ "Income tax cut for everyone under $160,000, first $10,000 tax-free, 45% rate above $160,000", "KiwiMart: at least 120 stores moved into a public supermarket chain ($2.8b, no stated funding); ban price gouging", "Lift benefits to liveable rates, abolish sanctions, strengthen Working for Families (uncosted)", "Double food grants ($94m to $100m a year) and a $150m a year Fair Food Fund; fund care worker pay equity ($1.1b a year)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525", "date": "2026-06-21", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Affordable food for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/affordable_food_for_all_of_us", "date": "2026-09-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Income (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025718/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_income", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Greens commit to pay equity for care workers (1 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001235530/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_commit_to_pay_equity_for_care_workers", "date": "2026-10-01", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Blames regulation and entry barriers (supermarket consenting body, used-car test) and freezes the minimum wage, saying plainly its real value will fall; costed in its fiscal plan, but the freeze clashes with NZ First's pledge of rises at least with inflation, so it depends on ACT alone.", "relief_rationale": "The ETS auction refund to households is broad but unsized, and new supermarket entry takes years; the three-year minimum wage freeze cuts real pay for the lowest paid this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF, 15 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133" }, { "title": "ACT, ACT's plan to increase supermarket competition (28 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260928050933/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act%E2%80%99s-plan-to-increase-supermarket-competition" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" } ], "headline": "Lower costs by removing regulation and holding labour costs down, not by subsidies.", "policies": [ "Freeze the adult minimum wage for three years; training wage at 60% for under-20s in their first year", "One-stop consenting body for new supermarket entrants; auto-approve products approved in the US, UK and Australia", "Remove the ETS price floor and refund all carbon auction money to New Zealanders", "Money management card for Jobseekers after four months; tighter medical checks for health benefits" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF, 15 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133", "date": "2026-09-15", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, ACT's plan to increase supermarket competition (28 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260928050933/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act%E2%80%99s-plan-to-increase-supermarket-competition", "date": "2026-09-28", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax (PDF, 6 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907002257/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37031/attachments/original/1788642905/Scrap_Net_Zero_policy_09.pdf?1788642905", "date": "2026-09-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, ACT announces policy to make benefits a hand-up, not a way of life (28 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817231721/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-announces-policy-to-make-benefits-a-hand-up-not-a-way-of-life", "date": "2026-06-28", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Names market concentration and would split Foodstuffs and the gentailers, plus $70 a week more In-Work Tax Credit ($500m to $600m a year) and a $5,000 Kiwi Kids Grant ($400m); costs are stated but no fiscal plan says how they are paid for. The Foodstuffs split is shared with National.", "relief_rationale": "$70 a week more In-Work Tax Credit ($500m to $600m a year) and a $5,000 a year Kiwi Kids Grant would help working families, but neither has a start date and NZ First has no fiscal plan; the Foodstuffs and gentailer splits are structural and slower.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Break up the Supermarket Duopoly", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014141/https://www.nzfirst.nz/break_up_the_supermarket_duopoly" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First to Increase Working for Families, Minimum Wage (10 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233947/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_to_increase_working_for_families_minimum_wage" }, { "title": "NZ First, The Kiwi Kids Grant", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015246/https://www.nzfirst.nz/the_kiwi_kids_grant" } ], "headline": "Break up concentrated markets and pay more to working families, with no fiscal plan.", "policies": [ "Split Foodstuffs into two cooperatives; split power generators from retailers; bigger Commerce Commission penalties", "In-Work Tax Credit up $70 a week ($500m to $600m a year)", "Kiwi Kids Grant of $5,000 a year for a child's first three years ($400m per three-year cycle)", "Minimum wage rises at least with inflation; ten-year benefit stand-down for migrants" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Break up the Supermarket Duopoly", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014141/https://www.nzfirst.nz/break_up_the_supermarket_duopoly", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Breaking up the Gentailers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014033/https://www.nzfirst.nz/breaking_up_the_gentailers", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First to Increase Working for Families, Minimum Wage (10 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233947/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_to_increase_working_for_families_minimum_wage", "date": "2026-10-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, The Kiwi Kids Grant", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015246/https://www.nzfirst.nz/the_kiwi_kids_grant", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Diagnoses a tax system that taxes wages more than wealth; the $30,000 tax-free band and kai credit sit in its costed tax package (about $200m headroom), while doubling benefits is uncosted and there is no delivery timetable.", "relief_rationale": "No income tax on the first $30,000 and a kai credit for earners under $60,000 sit in a costed tax package, but the package gives no start date or in-term years; doubled benefits and a $28.95 minimum wage are undated and uncosted.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043207/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living" } ], "headline": "Shift tax from low earners to wealth and land, and strengthen welfare.", "policies": [ "No income tax on the first $30,000; 15% to $60,000; 48% above $300,000", "Income Tax Kai Credit worth eight weeks of food a year for earners under $60,000", "Minimum wage to $28.95; double baseline benefits and remove sanctions (uncosted)", "Back Māori-owned supermarkets and local kai sellers" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043207/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living", "date": "2026-06-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Kai Sovereignty (6 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810030114/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/kai_sovereignt", "date": "2026-06-06", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Targets housing costs, taxes on work and market structure; the Citizen's Income and land tax are costed in its Tax Reset (with a $0.6b to $1.6b shortfall) but phase in over years, and the land tax is not a bottom line, so it rests on Opportunity alone.", "relief_rationale": "The Citizen's Income is introduced gradually and the land value tax lowers house prices over years; free public transport has no start date.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043140/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/breakthrough-economy" }, { "title": "1News, No land tax or Citizen's Income in Opportunity's bottom lines (29 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/29/no-land-tax-or-citizens-income-in-opportunitys-bottom-lines/" } ], "headline": "Swap taxes on work for a land tax, pay a Citizen's Income, and force competition.", "policies": [ "Citizen's Income of up to $370 a week for almost all adults, replacing most benefits; tax brackets 28/34/39%", "1.75% urban land value tax, expected to cut house prices 10% to 15%", "Commerce Commission power to force structural separation of anti-competitive firms", "Free public transport (net cost about $150m a year); consolidate electricity distributors" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset", "date": "2026-08-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043140/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/breakthrough-economy", "date": "2026-07-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Free Public Transport", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819051847/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/free_public_transport", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Abundant Energy Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/abundant-energy-policy.pdf", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G01.0", "title": "Income tax cut", "statement": "Income tax should be cut for most earners this term.", "why_it_matters": "Affects most pay packets now, and how fast debt falls as the population ages.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Income tax rates (now 10.5% to 39%) would fall for most people this term. Current plans have no cuts while the budget returns to surplus, forecast for 2028/29.", "case_for": "People keep more of each pay while food, fuel, power and rent eat into budgets.", "case_against": "Cuts mean less for services, a later surplus, or new taxes elsewhere to pay for them.", "the_tradeoff": "More money in pockets now versus lower debt as the population ages." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "neutral", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Rules out tax cuts this term; surplus first", "labour": "No income tax rate change in its fiscal plan", "greens": "Cut for everyone under $160,000; first $10,000 tax-free", "act": "Broad cuts only after surplus; targeted cuts now", "nz-first": "Cuts a long-term goal; 20% small-firm rate now", "te-pati-maori": "No income tax on the first $30,000", "opportunity": "Citizen's Income plus 28/34/39% brackets" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G01.1", "title": "Minimum wage rises", "statement": "The adult minimum wage should continue to rise every year.", "why_it_matters": "Sets the pay floor for the lowest-paid workers; a freeze cuts its real value.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The adult minimum wage is reviewed every year. Agreeing means it keeps rising each year; disagreeing allows a pause, such as a proposed three-year freeze.", "case_for": "A freeze lets rising prices eat into what the lowest-paid workers can buy.", "case_against": "Holding wage costs steady can help firms keep and hire staff, especially young people.", "the_tradeoff": "Higher pay for low earners versus lower costs for employers and possibly more entry-level jobs." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "silent", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No minimum wage policy published", "labour": "Would increase it every year, no freeze", "greens": "No minimum wage figure in its manifesto", "act": "Freeze for three years; training wage for under-20s", "nz-first": "Rises at least with inflation", "te-pati-maori": "Lift the minimum wage to $28.95", "opportunity": "No minimum wage policy published" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, A vote for National means three years of frozen wages (15 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261009030931/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-a-vote-for-national-means-three-years-of-frozen-wages/" }, { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF, 15 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First to Increase Working for Families, Minimum Wage (10 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233947/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_to_increase_working_for_families_minimum_wage" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043207/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G01.2", "title": "Supermarket break-up", "statement": "Government should force a break-up of the supermarket duopoly.", "why_it_matters": "Grocery prices hit every household, and two firms hold about 80% of sales.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Two firms hold about 80% of grocery sales. A Grocery Commissioner regulates them now, with no forced break-up. Options include splitting Foodstuffs or separating wholesale from retail.", "case_for": "More real competitors could push grocery prices down for good, not just for a year.", "case_against": "A forced split is costly and untested; easing entry for new supermarkets could add competition instead.", "the_tradeoff": "Fast, forced change to the market versus a slower, lighter route." }, "positions": { "national": "neutral", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "neutral", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "Split Foodstuffs via a Commerce Commission plan", "labour": "Separate supermarket wholesale from retail stores", "greens": "Move 120 stores into a public chain", "act": "Ease entry for new supermarkets instead", "nz-first": "Split Foodstuffs into two cooperatives", "te-pati-maori": "Back Māori-owned supermarkets, no break-up", "opportunity": "Power for the Commerce Commission to force separation; no break-up named." }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, More Grocery Competition (PDF, 16 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916084026mp_/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20Grocery%20Competition.pdf?v=1789522994" }, { "title": "Labour, Banning price gouging (PDF, 18 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260918041313/https://www.labour.org.nz/banning-price-gouging" }, { "title": "Green Party, Affordable food for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/affordable_food_for_all_of_us" }, { "title": "ACT, ACT's plan to increase supermarket competition (28 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260928050933/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act%E2%80%99s-plan-to-increase-supermarket-competition" }, { "title": "NZ First, Break up the Supermarket Duopoly", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014141/https://www.nzfirst.nz/break_up_the_supermarket_duopoly" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Kai Sovereignty (6 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810030114/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/kai_sovereignt" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043140/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/breakthrough-economy" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G01.3", "title": "Long-term Jobseeker cut", "statement": "Jobseeker payments should be cut for people on the benefit for two of the last three years.", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether lower payments or more support moves people into work.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Jobseeker Support is the main benefit for people able to work. This would pay a lower rate from April 2028 to people on it for two of the last three years.", "case_for": "A lower payment adds pressure to find work, which could lift incomes and the workforce over time.", "case_against": "Cutting already low incomes could deepen hardship without creating the jobs people need.", "the_tradeoff": "A stronger push into work versus a weaker safety net." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "disagree", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Lower rate from April 2028, parents cut half as much", "labour": "No benefit rate policy published", "greens": "Lift benefits to liveable rates, end sanctions", "act": "Money card after four months, not a rate cut", "nz-first": "No benefit rate policy published", "te-pati-maori": "Double baseline benefits, remove sanctions", "opportunity": "Citizen's Income replaces most benefits" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, A firm, fair and affordable welfare system (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008023106/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/A%20firm,%20fair%20and%20affordable%20welfare%20system.pdf?v=1791407915" }, { "title": "Green Party, Income (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025718/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_income" }, { "title": "ACT, ACT announces policy to make benefits a hand-up, not a way of life (28 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817231721/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-announces-policy-to-make-benefits-a-hand-up-not-a-way-of-life" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043207/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G02", "name": "Health", "short": "Health", "voter_weight": 51, "weight_2050": 7, "problem_voters_feel": "Long waits in emergency departments and for diagnosis, GP books closed, and the cost of a GP visit or prescription.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Emergency departments are crowded, GP clinics are closing their books and many people put off care because of cost. Staff shortages, waits for diagnosis and the price of a GP visit or a prescription are what voters feel this term.", "number_to_know": "74.4% of emergency department patients were admitted, discharged or transferred within six hours in the quarter to March 2026, against a 95% target.", "source": { "title": "DPMC, Government Targets factsheet: Target 1, shorter stays in emergency departments (June 2026 update)", "url": "https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/gt-factsheet-target-1-jun26.pdf" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "An older population means health demand grows faster than the economy, so health takes a rising share of every tax dollar. On Treasury's unchanged-policy projections, health spending rises from about 6.9% of GDP to about 9.4% by 2050, which squeezes everything else unless taxes rise or care gets cheaper to deliver.", "number_to_know": "Health spending about 6.9% of GDP now, about 9.4% by 2050 on Treasury's unchanged-policy projections.", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, "pressures": [ "P1" ] }, "status_quo": "Health NZ is funded on Treasury's cost-pressure track (PREFU 2026), with a $5 prescription charge, GP fees set by practices and a 95% six-hour emergency department target that is not being met. Pharmac funding was lifted in recent Budgets; the Māori Health Authority was abolished in 2024.", "options": [ { "option": "Free or cheaper primary care (GP visits, prescriptions, dental)", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "More money for medicines through Pharmac", "parties": [ "National", "Greens", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Earlier detection: wider cancer screening", "parties": [ "National", "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Let pharmacists treat more conditions", "parties": [ "Greens", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Prevention: tobacco, alcohol and diet", "parties": [ "Greens", "NZ First", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Lock in a long-term funding path (share of GDP, ten-year plan)", "parties": [ "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Māori-led health authority", "parties": [ "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Treat drug use as a health issue, not a crime", "parties": [ "Greens", "Opportunity" ] } ], "test_2050": "National and Labour build modestly on the 2050 position: earlier detection and cheaper primary care can slow costly hospital demand, and both are costed. Opportunity names the long-run problem most clearly, but its 9% of GDP target adds cost that its own tax package does not cover, and ACT's medicines push sits beside an allowance that does not fund demand growth. No party says how a health budget heading for about 9.4% of GDP will be paid for, or which care will be rationed if it is not.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Funded cost pressures plus earlier cancer detection", "why": "Screening finds cancers when treatment is cheaper and more successful, inside a costed plan that keeps debt below 40% of GDP.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, Building the Future: More medicines and earlier care (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006031134/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20medicines%20and%20earlier%20care.pdf?v=1791237531" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Free GP visits and prescriptions funded by a capital gains tax", "why": "Earlier primary care can reduce avoidable hospital use, and a new tax base pays for it rather than borrowing.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Free Doctor's Visits with the Medicard", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810223019/https://www.labour.org.nz/medicard" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Work towards free primary and dental care", "why": "Prevention intent is sound but the main promises are uncosted, so the net fiscal effect is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Green Party, Health (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025428/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_health" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Pharmac to over 10% of the health budget inside a $2b total allowance", "why": "Better medicines access can cut hospital costs, but holding all cost pressures to $2b leaves demand growth unfunded.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, Closing the Medicines Gap", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806215823/https://www.act.org.nz/closing-medicines-gap" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Nutrition-led prevention", "why": "Targets chronic disease, but with no cost, scale or evidence path the fiscal effect is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First, Campaign Announcement: The Plan to Make NZ Healthy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921001655/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_the_plan_to_make_nz_healthy" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Re-created Māori Health Authority and prevention focus", "why": "Could lift Māori health outcomes, but uncosted free GP and dental care and a likely reversal leave the long-run effect unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Health", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/health" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Health funding to 9% of GDP with a shift to prevention and primary care", "why": "Prevention and stable planning help, but the extra $1.3b a year sits outside its funded tax package, so it adds to the gap as much as it eases it.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901211428/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Funds Health NZ on Treasury's cost-pressure track in Budget 2026, so the money and the agency exist, but the settings treat demand rather than its drivers and the six-hour ED target sits at 74.4% against 95%. No stated answer to age-driven cost growth.", "relief_rationale": "Health NZ is funded on Treasury's cost-pressure track and the six-hour ED target stays at 95% while performance sits at 74.4%; current settings hold services rather than shorten waits or cut costs.", "sources": [ { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, { "title": "DPMC, Government Targets factsheet: Target 1, shorter stays in emergency departments (June 2026 update)", "url": "https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/gt-factsheet-target-1-jun26.pdf" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 15, "voter_15": 11, "rationale": "Costed in its fiscal plan: cost pressures ($14.6b), Pharmac $604m and bowel screening ($178m, Erasmus modelling) with dated targets. Names who pays for Pharmac (non-Pacific aid). Screening and earlier care are a modest build; cervical screening is also Labour policy, but the plan does not explain how health taking 61% of the allowance squeezes other pressures, so Candour is 2 not 3.", "relief_rationale": "Free cervical screening for 25 to 69 from March 2027, Pharmac up $604m over four years for more medicines, and bowel screening from 50 by 2029; little that shortens ED or GP waits.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" }, { "title": "National, Building the Future: More medicines and earlier care (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006031134/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20medicines%20and%20earlier%20care.pdf?v=1791237531" } ], "headline": "Fund Treasury's cost pressures and add targeted money for medicines and cancer screening.", "policies": [ "Health cost pressures funded on Treasury's track ($14.6b over four years)", "Pharmac budget up $604m over four years, paid for by a 10% cut to non-Pacific aid", "Bowel screening from age 50 by 2029 ($178m); free cervical screening 25 to 69 from March 2027; breast screening to 74", "Target of 5% of cancer patients treated in clinical trials within ten years; $8.5m for rural health workforce" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "National, Building the Future: More medicines and earlier care (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006031134/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20medicines%20and%20earlier%20care.pdf?v=1791237531", "date": "2026-10-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Backing our frontline rural health workforce", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817233635/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260730-honmattdoocey", "date": "2026-07-30", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Building the future: backing Auckland to succeed", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013211726/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261014-simonwatts", "date": "2026-10-14", "tier": 2 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names cost as the barrier to primary care with evidence (155,000 people not collecting prescriptions) and funds free GP visits, prescriptions and nurse jobs in a fiscal plan reviewed by a firm Labour commissioned, so Funding is 2. Medicard vehicle and a July 2028 start; names property investors as payers through the capital gains tax. Free primary care is backed by the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, but its funding depends on a tax National would not keep.", "relief_rationale": "Three free GP or nurse visits a year for everyone enrolled from July 2028 ($393m a year), removal of the $5 prescription charge and a graduate nurse job guarantee give dated, costed relief on the cost of care; no modelled effect on ED or GP waits, and the start leaves about 15 months before the election.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Labour, Free Doctor's Visits with the Medicard", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810223019/https://www.labour.org.nz/medicard" }, { "title": "Labour, Free Prescriptions Under Labour", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811025904/https://www.labour.org.nz/prescriptions" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will guarantee a job for graduate nurses", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901022610/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-guarantee-a-job-for-graduate-nurses/" }, { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax" } ], "headline": "Free primary care for everyone, paid for by a capital gains tax on investment property.", "policies": [ "Three free GP visits a year through a Medicard from July 2028 ($393m rising to about $553m a year)", "Remove the $5 prescription charge ($74.5m a year); free referred maternity scans", "Job guarantee for about 2,400 NZ-trained graduate nurses and doubled recruitment subsidies ($525m)", "$4 an hour pay rise for 65,000 care and support workers from 2027" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "Labour, Free Doctor's Visits with the Medicard", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810223019/https://www.labour.org.nz/medicard", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Free Prescriptions Under Labour", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811025904/https://www.labour.org.nz/prescriptions", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will guarantee a job for graduate nurses", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901022610/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-guarantee-a-job-for-graduate-nurses/", "date": "2026-08-31", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to restore pay equity, immediate pay rise for care and support workers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006043551/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-restore-pay-equity-immediate-pay-rise-for-care-and-support-workers/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names under-investment and cost barriers as drivers, but the core promise is to 'work towards' free GP and dental care with no cost or timeline; only care worker pay equity ($1.1b a year) sits in the party's costed table. Delivery is intent only.", "relief_rationale": "The core promise is to 'work towards' free GP and dental care with no date or cost; care worker pay equity and safe staffing help the workforce but give no dated access gain for patients.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Health (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025428/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_health" }, { "title": "Green Party, Greens commit to pay equity for care workers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001235530/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_commit_to_pay_equity_for_care_workers" }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" } ], "headline": "Work towards free primary and dental care, with more for mental health and a health-based approach to drugs.", "policies": [ "Work towards free public primary healthcare and dental care (uncosted)", "Fund pay equity for about 65,000 care workers ($1.1b a year) and set safe staffing levels", "Extend free mental health care to all communities; implement every suicide prevention recommendation", "Repeal and replace the Misuse of Drugs Act; regulate cannabis for personal use" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Health (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025428/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_health", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Mental Health (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030057/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_mental_health", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Drug Law Reform (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024559/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_drug_law_reform", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Greens commit to pay equity for care workers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001235530/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_commit_to_pay_equity_for_care_workers", "date": "2026-10-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all", "date": "2026-06-21", "tier": 1 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Names the medicines gap with Australia and GP retirement data, and sets a measurable Pharmac target (over 10% of the health budget by 2033). The cancer centre contingency is in its fiscal plan, but the medicines and GP promises sit outside the costed table, and every health cost pressure must fit a $2b allowance, so Funding is 1 and Future effect 1. National also lifts Pharmac, giving partner support.", "relief_rationale": "$400m over four years to raise GP pay and appointments and wider pharmacist prescribing would add access points, but neither has a start date and the GP money sits outside ACT's costed fiscal table; the Pharmac target runs to 2033 and the cancer centres land later.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Closing the Medicines Gap", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806215823/https://www.act.org.nz/closing-medicines-gap" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" }, { "title": "ACT, ACT will invest $400 million to get Kiwis more GP appointments", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018212910/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-will-invest-400-million-to-get-kiwis-more-gp-appointments" }, { "title": "ACT, ACT unveils plan for New Zealand's first dedicated Cancer centre", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260823213635/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-unveils-plan-for-new-zealands-first-dedicated-cancer-centre---beyond-tomorrow" } ], "headline": "More medicines, more pharmacist care and a cancer centre, within a tight overall spending allowance.", "policies": [ "Lift Pharmac from 4.9% to over 10% of the health budget by 2033 (party estimate over $4b over seven years)", "About $2b capital contingency for two cancer centres built through public-private partnership", "Pharmacists treat more conditions; ease pharmacy ownership and location rules", "$400m over four years to raise GP pay and appointments" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Closing the Medicines Gap", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806215823/https://www.act.org.nz/closing-medicines-gap", "date": "2026-07-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, ACT unveils plan for New Zealand's first dedicated Cancer centre", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260823213635/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-unveils-plan-for-new-zealands-first-dedicated-cancer-centre---beyond-tomorrow", "date": "2026-08-21", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Your pharmacist should be your first stop", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806040754/https://www.act.org.nz/news/your-pharmacist-should-be-your-first-stop", "date": "2026-08-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, ACT will invest $400 million to get Kiwis more GP appointments", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018212910/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-will-invest-400-million-to-get-kiwis-more-gp-appointments", "date": "2026-10-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 5, "rationale": "Names a driver (59% of spending on chronic illness, 1.75% on prevention), but the mechanism rests on health coaches, dietary review and intravenous vitamin C trials with no evidence path, no cost and no timeline. No trade-offs named.", "relief_rationale": "Health coaches in general practice are the only service change; the dietary review and vitamin C research are reviews and research with no date.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Campaign Announcement: The Plan to Make NZ Healthy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921001655/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_the_plan_to_make_nz_healthy" } ], "headline": "Shift health spending towards prevention, built around nutrition.", "policies": [ "Health coaches in general practice", "Independent review of dietary guidelines; nutrition taught from primary school to medical school", "Fund research on nutrient-based treatments, including intravenous vitamin C trials", "Cut regulatory burden on GPs and allow 'greater diversity of medical viewpoints' in professional standards" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Campaign Announcement: The Plan to Make NZ Healthy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921001655/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_the_plan_to_make_nz_healthy", "date": "2026-09-20", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 0, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names a driver (a system not accountable to Māori) and proposes re-creating the Māori Health Authority, but gives no evidence or timeline on its own pages. The $1.5b a year figure comes from party papers this report relied on and could not be re-verified; free GP and dental care carry no cost. The authority was abolished in 2024, so it is likely to be reversed again.", "relief_rationale": "Re-creating the Māori Health Authority is a structural change, and free primary and dental care and the $1.5b a year for mental health and workforce carry no date.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Health", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/health" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy and policy papers", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax" } ], "headline": "Rebuild a Māori-led health authority and move the system towards prevention.", "policies": [ "Re-establish Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority", "Free primary healthcare and free dental care (uncosted)", "$500m a year for kaupapa Māori mental health and $1b a year for the health workforce, not in its tax package", "Make services accessible, culturally safe and accountable to Māori" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Health", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/health", "date": "2026-08-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy and policy papers", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Health policy (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/health", "date": "2026-10-07" } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Strongest diagnosis: links instability and low prevention spending to health loss (tobacco, alcohol and diet cause about a quarter of healthy years lost) and sets measurable targets (9% of GDP, primary care to 10%). The $1.3b a year is costed but sits outside its balanced tax package, and the ten-year plan needs other parties to agree; it is a coalition bottom line.", "relief_rationale": "Health funding rises from 7.4% to 9% of GDP over ten years and primary care's share rises gradually, so most of the effect lands after 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901211428/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy People", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042800/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/healthy_people" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "headline": "A ten-year cross-party health plan with funding set as a share of GDP.", "policies": [ "Lift health funding from 7.4% to 9% of GDP over ten years (party-costed at about $1.3b a year)", "Raise primary care from 5.7% to 10% of Health NZ spending", "Renewed Smokefree programme, denicotinised tobacco, tougher rules on alcohol and unhealthy food", "Decriminalise drug possession (not supply) with a health-led response" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901211428/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education", "date": "2026-09-02", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy People", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042800/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/healthy_people", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines", "date": "2026-09-29", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Smart on Crime", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042213/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/smart_on_crime", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G02.0", "title": "Health above forecast", "statement": "Health spending should grow faster than Treasury forecasts.", "why_it_matters": "Decides how much more hospitals and GPs get as health heads to 9.4% of GDP.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Health NZ is now funded on Treasury's track of rising costs. Agreeing means spending above that track; disagreeing means staying on it.", "case_for": "Crowded emergency departments and GPs closing their books show the current track does not meet demand.", "case_against": "Extra spending needs higher taxes, cuts elsewhere or more debt, while health costs already outgrow the economy.", "the_tradeoff": "Better care now versus health taking more than its forecast rise from 6.9% to 9.4% of GDP by 2050." }, "positions": { "national": "neutral", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "neutral", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Treasury track plus $604m for Pharmac", "labour": "Free GP visits and prescriptions funded by capital gains tax", "greens": "Free GP and dental care, uncosted", "act": "More medicines, but all pressures inside $2b allowance", "nz-first": "Prevention plan, no spending level stated", "te-pati-maori": "$1.5b a year more for mental health and workforce", "opportunity": "Health funding to 9% of GDP over ten years" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Green Party, Health (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025428/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_health" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" }, { "title": "NZ First, Campaign Announcement: The Plan to Make NZ Healthy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921001655/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_the_plan_to_make_nz_healthy" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy and policy papers", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax" }, { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901211428/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G02.1", "title": "Free GP visits", "statement": "Everyone should get three free GP visits a year.", "why_it_matters": "Cost stops many people seeing a GP early, which pushes demand onto hospitals.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Each practice sets its own GP fees now, and many people put off care because of cost. This would give everyone three free GP visits a year (one costing: $393m a year, rising to $553m).", "case_for": "Seeing a GP early is cheaper than treating problems later in hospital.", "case_against": "The money could go to staff, medicines or screening; free visits do not add GPs.", "the_tradeoff": "Cheaper access for all versus other health priorities as demand climbs." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No GP fee policy; screening and medicines instead", "labour": "Three free visits a year through Medicard from July 2028", "greens": "Work towards free primary care for everyone", "act": "Pays GPs more for more appointments; no fee policy", "nz-first": "Health coaches in GP practices; no fee policy", "te-pati-maori": "Free primary healthcare and dental care", "opportunity": "More primary care funding; no free-visit pledge" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Free Doctor's Visits with the Medicard", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810223019/https://www.labour.org.nz/medicard" }, { "title": "Green Party, Health (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025428/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_health" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy and policy papers", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax" }, { "title": "ACT, ACT will invest $400 million to get Kiwis more GP appointments", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018212910/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-will-invest-400-million-to-get-kiwis-more-gp-appointments" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy People", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042800/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/healthy_people" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G02.2", "title": "Pharmac share", "statement": "Pharmac's budget should rise to over 10% of health spending by 2033.", "why_it_matters": "Decides how fast New Zealand closes the medicines gap with Australia.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Pharmac is the agency that decides which medicines the public health system pays for. Its budget is about 4.9% of health spending now; this would lift it to over 10% by 2033.", "case_for": "More funding would close the gap with Australia on access to modern medicines.", "case_against": "Doubling the medicines share leaves less for hospitals, staff and GPs unless total spending grows.", "the_tradeoff": "More funded medicines versus other services competing for the same budget." }, "positions": { "national": "neutral", "labour": "silent", "greens": "neutral", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "$604m uplift over four years, no share target", "labour": "No Pharmac funding policy", "greens": "Sustained increase in Pharmac funding, no target", "act": "From 4.9% to over 10% of health budget by 2033", "nz-first": "Wants Medsafe and Pharmac to recognise nutrients", "te-pati-maori": "No medicines policy", "opportunity": "Overall health funding target, not medicines" }, "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Closing the Medicines Gap", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806215823/https://www.act.org.nz/closing-medicines-gap" }, { "title": "National, Building the Future: More medicines and earlier care (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006031134/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/More%20medicines%20and%20earlier%20care.pdf?v=1791237531" }, { "title": "Green Party, Health (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025428/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_health" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G02.3", "title": "Drug possession offence", "statement": "Possessing drugs for personal use should remain a criminal offence.", "why_it_matters": "Agreeing keeps current law; disagreeing moves drug use to the health system.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Possessing drugs for personal use is a crime under the Misuse of Drugs Act now. Agreeing keeps that; disagreeing treats personal use as a health issue instead.", "case_for": "A clear criminal penalty deters drug use and gives police a tool against harm in communities.", "case_against": "A criminal record damages jobs and lives, while a health response gets more people into treatment.", "the_tradeoff": "Deterrence through criminal penalties versus treatment through the health system." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "disagree" }, "notes": { "national": "Drug tests for Jobseeker recipients; no possession policy", "labour": "No drug law policy", "greens": "Repeal Misuse of Drugs Act; legal cannabis for personal use", "act": "No drug law policy", "nz-first": "No drug law policy", "te-pati-maori": "No drug law policy", "opportunity": "Decriminalise possession but not supply" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Drug Law Reform (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024559/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_drug_law_reform" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Smart on Crime", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042213/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/smart_on_crime" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G03", "name": "Economy, jobs and productivity", "short": "Economy and jobs", "voter_weight": 55, "weight_2050": 19, "problem_voters_feel": "Rising unemployment, hitting young people first, and wages that have not kept up.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Unemployment has risen and young people are hit first, while growth has been weak. Wages follow output per hour, and New Zealand's has grown slowly for two decades.", "number_to_know": "Output per hour grew about 0.7% a year over the past 20 years (OECD Economic Survey 2026, as used in this report's productivity card).", "source": { "title": "OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand 2026", "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-new-zealand-2026_3ec5de98-en/full-report/recovering-in-an-uncertain-world_7e812bfa.html" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "With fewer workers per retiree, growth to 2050 must come from output per worker rather than more workers. How fast firms adopt AI, invest in capital and spend on R&D will set wages and the tax base.", "number_to_know": "3.8 working-age people per person over 65 today; about 2.8 by 2050 (Treasury).", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, "pressures": [ "P2" ] }, "status_quo": "Investment Boost (a 20% upfront deduction on new business assets), Fast-track Approvals Act, RMA replacement under way, offshore exploration ban repealed, a small-business AI Advisory pilot, and Treasury forecasting about 220,000 more jobs by 2030.", "options": [ { "option": "Keep Investment Boost and cut regulation and consenting time", "parties": [ "National", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Replace Investment Boost with a $10,000 small-firm write-off and a state Future Fund", "parties": [ "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Expand mining and extraction through fast-track and minerals law", "parties": [ "National", "ACT", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Lift R&D to 2% of GDP with a technology adoption tax credit", "parties": [ "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Central AI office and AI regulation", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Job or training guarantee for young unemployed people", "parties": [ "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Lower labour costs: minimum wage freeze and training wage", "parties": [ "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Targeted tax cuts and special economic zones for regions and small firms", "parties": [ "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Funds for Māori enterprise and a higher company tax", "parties": [ "Te Pāti Māori" ] } ], "test_2050": "National's investment and consenting settings and Opportunity's R&D and technology-adoption push are the answers most likely to lift output per worker by 2050, with Labour's Future Fund a possible build if it is sized. NZ First borrows from the future with unfunded tax cuts and subsidies, while ACT's lower-wage and mining lock-ins trade short-run hiring for contested long-run gains. Nobody sets a measurable productivity target or says how AI-driven job losses would be absorbed in the tax base.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Keep Investment Boost; RMA replacement and fast-track consenting", "why": "Cheaper capital investment and faster consents raise capital per worker, the main source of output per hour.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Swap Investment Boost for a $10,000 small-firm write-off; Future Fund; Office of AI", "why": "Shifts investment support from larger to smaller firms and adds an unsized fund, so the net effect on capital deepening is unclear.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Small Business Action Plan", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015958/https://www.labour.org.nz/small-business-action-plan" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Youth jobs guarantee; AI regulation; repeal fast-track", "why": "Keeps young people attached to work but adds limits on mining, data centres and nitrogen, with no stated productivity path.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Green Party, Youth Jobs Guarantee (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011215450/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/96649/attachments/original/1791665775/a_job_for_every_young_person-policy.pdf?1791665775" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Minimum wage freeze, training wage, innovation trials, mining compensation body", "why": "Lower labour costs raise hiring but not output per hour, while regulatory trials could lift adoption of new technology at the margin.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "borrows", "policy": "20% small-firm company tax, Marsden Point zone, $1b minerals survey", "why": "About $2b of costs with no funding source pushes the bill onto future debt for gains the party asserts but does not show.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First, Lowering Tax Rate for SMEs to 20%", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924022431/https://www.nzfirst.nz/20_tax_rate_for_smes" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Māori enterprise funds, local energy ownership, 33% company tax", "why": "Redistributes ownership and returns but sets no path to higher output per worker.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Economic development", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043029/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/economic_development" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "R&D to 2% of GDP; 25% technology adoption tax credit", "why": "R&D and faster AI and automation adoption are the levers most linked in the evidence to total factor productivity.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy Overview (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/breakthrough-economy-policy-overview.pdf" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Investment Boost, fast-track consenting and RMA replacement target the investment and regulation drivers and sit in Treasury's forecasts; the government does not quantify a productivity target or name who bears the costs of faster consents.", "relief_rationale": "Investment Boost, fast-track consenting and RMA replacement are structural and build slowly; Treasury's 220,000 more jobs by 2030 is a forecast, not a measure aimed at today's jobless.", "sources": [ { "title": "National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names investment and regulation as drivers and sets measurable targets (2.7% growth, 220,000 jobs by 2030), all inside its costed fiscal plan, with a delivery record in government; Labour would repeal Investment Boost, and the plan presents its measures as having no losers.", "relief_rationale": "Extra case management for 30,000 long-term Jobseekers (5,000 places for young people) is the only direct help for the unemployed; the rest continues structural settings with a 2.7% growth and 220,000 jobs target to 2030.", "sources": [ { "title": "National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" }, { "title": "Building the Future: National's 47-point plan to support small businesses (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261007034501/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%E2%80%99s%2047-point%20plan%20to%20support%20Small%20Businesses.pdf?v=1791324870" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Stay the course: keep Investment Boost, replace the RMA, fast-track projects and target 2.7% growth and 220,000 jobs by 2030.", "policies": [ "Keep Investment Boost; replace the RMA, roughly halving consents; growth target 2.7% a year and 220,000 jobs by 2030", "47-point small business plan: 120 more AI Advisory places, 'Next 200' exporter programme, prompt payment reporting", "Government policy statement on mining under the Fast-track Approvals Act; data centres approved only with new firm generation", "Extra case management for 30,000 long-term Jobseekers, 5,000 places for young people" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287", "date": "2026-09-28", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Building the Future: National's 47-point plan to support small businesses (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261007034501/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%E2%80%99s%2047-point%20plan%20to%20support%20Small%20Businesses.pdf?v=1791324870", "date": "2026-10-07", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National's plan for the South Island (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817232355/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20South%20Island%20Plan.pdf?v=1786659579", "date": "2026-08-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, A firm, fair and affordable welfare system (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008023106/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/A%20firm,%20fair%20and%20affordable%20welfare%20system.pdf?v=1791407915", "date": "2026-10-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Targets small-firm cash flow, AI adoption and skills with named vehicles (100-day payments law, Office of AI, Guardians-run Future Fund) inside its party-reviewed fiscal plan; it names larger firms losing Investment Boost, but repealing it lowers capital incentives and the Future Fund has no size or date.", "relief_rationale": "Dated help for small firms and apprentices: a $10,000 low-value asset write-off for firms under $10m turnover from 1 July 2027 ($1.56b over four years), a $1,000 toolbox grant from July 2027 and Apprenticeship Boost extended to two years from July 2028; the Future Fund has no size or date.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Small Business Action Plan", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015958/https://www.labour.org.nz/small-business-action-plan" }, { "title": "Labour, New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/futurefund" }, { "title": "Labour, AI in New Zealand's interests", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/ai-for-new-zealand" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" } ], "headline": "Repeal Investment Boost for a small-business package, set up a Future Fund and an Office of AI.", "policies": [ "Repeal Investment Boost; $10,000 low-value asset write-off for firms under $10m turnover from July 2027 ($1.56b over four years)", "New Zealand Future Fund, seeded with Crown assets and run by the Guardians of the Super Fund (size not stated)", "Office of AI in DPMC with a senior minister; AI workforce plan; data centres pay own connection and bring own renewables", "Apprenticeship Boost extended to two years at $500 a month; Reserve Bank dual mandate restored" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Small Business Action Plan", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015958/https://www.labour.org.nz/small-business-action-plan", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/futurefund", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, AI in New Zealand's interests", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/ai-for-new-zealand", "date": "2026-09-09", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Expanding Apprenticeship Boost", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015736/https://www.labour.org.nz/apprenticeshipboost", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Kiwis and grow the economy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824014918/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-kiwis-and-grow-the-economy/", "date": "2026-08-23", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names youth unemployment (nearly 15%) and market concentration as drivers and names who pays (largest corporates); the jobs guarantee and AI commission have no cost or timeline, and the growth path from tighter mining, nitrogen and data-centre rules is asserted.", "relief_rationale": "A pathway into work, training or education for every 16 to 24 year old out of work six months targets the right group, but has no cost or start date; revoking new mining consents could cost jobs in the term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Youth Jobs Guarantee (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011215450/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/96649/attachments/original/1791665775/a_job_for_every_young_person-policy.pdf?1791665775" }, { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013032821/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041" }, { "title": "Green Party, Small Business", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030743/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_small_business" }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" } ], "headline": "Guarantee young people work or training, regulate AI and steer industry toward low-carbon, local firms.", "policies": [ "Job, training or education pathway for every 16 to 24 year old out of work for six months", "AI office in DPMC moving to an independent AI commission; one-year pause on new AI data centres", "Repeal the Fast-track Approvals Act and revoke new coal, gold and seabed mining consents", "33% company tax for the largest firms; Buy Kiwi Made and stronger competition agencies" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Youth Jobs Guarantee (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011215450/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/96649/attachments/original/1791665775/a_job_for_every_young_person-policy.pdf?1791665775", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013032821/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Call for a one year pause on consenting new AI data centres", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818011123/https://www.greens.org.nz/call_for_one_year_pause_on_consenting_new_ai_data_centres", "date": "2026-07-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Environmental Protection", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024927/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_environmental_protection", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Small Business", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030743/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_small_business", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525", "date": "2026-06-21", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Names labour and regulatory costs as drivers, with mostly zero-cost law changes inside its fiscal plan and named vehicles (Ministry for Regulation); it admits the minimum wage loses real value, but the freeze clashes with NZ First's inflation pledge and the mining compensation body binds future governments.", "relief_rationale": "The main offer, a three-year minimum wage freeze and a 60% training wage for under-20s, cuts real pay for the lowest paid this term; the claimed hiring gains are not modelled, and the 90-day grievance limit gives no relief.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133" }, { "title": "ACT, Unlocking Mineral and Energy Wealth (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008001739/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38384/attachments/original/1791257386/Unlocking_Mineral_and_Energy_Wealth.pdf?1791257386" }, { "title": "ACT, Innovation Trials", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260803045031/https://www.act.org.nz/innovation-trials" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" } ], "headline": "Lower the cost of hiring and of regulation, and lock in mining investment.", "policies": [ "Freeze the adult minimum wage for three years; training wage at 60% for under 20s", "90-day limit on personal grievances; protected exit negotiations", "Statutory body to compensate mineral investors if permits are withdrawn; property rights in the Bill of Rights", "Innovation trials exempting firms from rules; review tax treatment of software" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133", "date": "2026-09-15", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Unlocking Mineral and Energy Wealth (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008001739/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38384/attachments/original/1791257386/Unlocking_Mineral_and_Energy_Wealth.pdf?1791257386", "date": "2026-10-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Innovation Trials", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260803045031/https://www.act.org.nz/innovation-trials", "date": "2026-08-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 0 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names drivers (small-firm tax, processor scale, untapped minerals) but the path is asserted, the $1b tax cut and $1b survey have no funding source ('growth will cover it'), and no party publishes support for the special economic zone.", "relief_rationale": "A 20% company tax rate for firms under $30m turnover (about $1b at first) has no start date, and the Marsden Point zone and $1b geological survey build slowly.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Lowering Tax Rate for SMEs to 20%", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924022431/https://www.nzfirst.nz/20_tax_rate_for_smes" }, { "title": "NZ First, Establishing a Special Economic Zone at Marsden Point", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014909/https://www.nzfirst.nz/establishing_a_special_economic_zone_at_marsden_point" }, { "title": "NZ First, Returning 50% of mining royalties to the regions", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014242/https://www.nzfirst.nz/returning_50_of_mining_royalties_to_the_regions" }, { "title": "NZ First launches 'Use It or Lose It' dairy policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260823215053/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_launches_use_it_or_lose_it_dairy_policy" } ], "headline": "Economic nationalism: tax breaks, a special economic zone, a minerals survey and more domestic processing.", "policies": [ "20% company tax for firms under $30m turnover (party estimate $1b at first)", "Special Economic Zone at Marsden Point with tax breaks, wage subsidies and lighter planning rules", "Nationwide geological survey ($1b over the term); half of mining royalties kept in the regions", "Guaranteed milk for domestic processors from 50 to 500 million litres; trade protection for NZ aluminium" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Lowering Tax Rate for SMEs to 20%", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924022431/https://www.nzfirst.nz/20_tax_rate_for_smes", "date": "2026-09-24", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Establishing a Special Economic Zone at Marsden Point", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014909/https://www.nzfirst.nz/establishing_a_special_economic_zone_at_marsden_point", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Returning 50% of mining royalties to the regions", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014242/https://www.nzfirst.nz/returning_50_of_mining_royalties_to_the_regions", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First launches 'Use It or Lose It' dairy policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260823215053/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_launches_use_it_or_lose_it_dairy_policy", "date": "2026-08-20", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First will immediately reverse this week's decision by the Minister of Consumer Affairs", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016214927/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_will_immediately_reverse_this_week_s_decision_by_the_minister_of_consumer_affairs", "date": "2026-10-17", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "Frames the problem as fairness and Māori ownership rather than a productivity driver; the Māori enterprise funds are unsized and only the tax side is costed in its tax plan.", "relief_rationale": "Māori enterprise and wealth funds are unsized and undated, so nothing for jobs lands by 2029; the rise in company tax to 33% and a 5% tax on profits sent overseas could weigh on hiring.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Economic development", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043029/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/economic_development" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, We want cheaper power and we want our people to own it", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" } ], "headline": "Build Māori economic power and local ownership, paid for by taxing corporates and offshore profits.", "policies": [ "Funds for Māori enterprise and long-term Māori wealth (size not stated)", "On-farm and community renewable generation owned locally", "Company tax to 33%; 5% tax on profits sent overseas; 33% land banking tax", "Kai sovereignty: reject genetic engineering, support Māori-owned food sellers" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Economic development", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043029/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/economic_development", "date": "2026-06-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, We want cheaper power and we want our people to own it", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it", "date": "2026-09-16", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Kai Sovereignty", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810030114/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/kai_sovereignt", "date": "2026-06-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 3, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names low R&D and weak competition with evidence and sets a measurable target (R&D 2% of GDP in ten years); the $1.33b a year is costed but no funding source is given, it relies on this party alone, and it does not say who pays.", "relief_rationale": "R&D to 2% of GDP within ten years is long-run; the technology adoption tax credit of up to 25% ($600m a year) could help firms but has no start date or job effect.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy Overview (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/breakthrough-economy-policy-overview.pdf" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "headline": "An innovation-led 'Breakthrough Economy': R&D to 2% of GDP and a tax credit for adopting technology.", "policies": [ "R&D to 2% of GDP within ten years (3% by 2050); restore science funding", "Technology adoption tax credit of up to 25% for AI, digital platforms and automation ($600m a year)", "Commerce Commission power to seek break-ups of dominant firms; double funding for incubators and accelerators", "Polytechs as regional innovation hubs; package costed at $1.33b a year extra" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy Overview (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/breakthrough-economy-policy-overview.pdf", "date": "2026-07-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy Oceans Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043420/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/oceans-policy.pdf", "date": "2026-02-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset", "date": "2026-08-01", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G03.0", "title": "Office of AI", "statement": "Government should set up a central Office of AI in the Prime Minister's department.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether AI policy is coordinated and regulated from the centre or left to existing agencies.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "AI policy now sits with existing agencies, plus a small-business advice pilot. This would create a central Office of AI in the Prime Minister's department, led by a senior minister.", "case_for": "One office could plan for how AI changes jobs and set clear rules early.", "case_against": "A new office adds cost and rules; existing agencies can handle AI in their own areas.", "the_tradeoff": "Central control versus a lighter touch, as AI reshapes which skills pay by 2050." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Funds AI Advisory places only; no central office", "labour": "Office of AI in DPMC with a senior minister", "greens": "AI office in DPMC, later an independent commission", "act": "No AI office policy found", "nz-first": "No AI policy found", "te-pati-maori": "Māori data sovereignty only; no AI office", "opportunity": "Promises AI regulation; dedicated AI policy still to come" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, AI in New Zealand's interests", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/ai-for-new-zealand" }, { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013032821/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041" }, { "title": "Building the Future: National's 47-point plan to support small businesses (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261007034501/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%E2%80%99s%2047-point%20plan%20to%20support%20Small%20Businesses.pdf?v=1791324870" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy Overview (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/breakthrough-economy-policy-overview.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G03.1", "title": "Data centres bring power", "statement": "New data centres should only be approved if they bring their own new electricity generation.", "why_it_matters": "Big data centres could push up household power prices while supply is already tight.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Data centres are large buildings of computers that run AI and online services, and they use a lot of electricity. This would approve new ones only if they bring their own new power generation.", "case_for": "It stops big new users pushing up household power prices when supply is already tight.", "case_against": "An extra condition could slow or deter investment that brings jobs and growth.", "the_tradeoff": "Protecting household power bills versus attracting AI investment." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Approve only with new firm generation", "labour": "Data centres must secure own renewable supply", "greens": "New renewables required, plus a one-year pause", "act": "No data centre policy found", "nz-first": "No data centre policy found", "te-pati-maori": "No data centre policy found", "opportunity": "No data centre policy found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National's plan for the South Island (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817232355/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20South%20Island%20Plan.pdf?v=1786659579" }, { "title": "Labour, AI in New Zealand's interests", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/ai-for-new-zealand" }, { "title": "Green Party, Call for a one year pause on consenting new AI data centres", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818011123/https://www.greens.org.nz/call_for_one_year_pause_on_consenting_new_ai_data_centres" }, { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013032821/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G03.2", "title": "Fast-track mining", "statement": "Mining projects should continue to be eligible for the Fast-track Approvals Act.", "why_it_matters": "Weighs regional jobs and royalties against environmental checks and local say on mining.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The Fast-track Approvals Act lets large projects get consent through a shorter, faster process. Mining can use it now; disagreeing would remove that access.", "case_for": "Faster consents bring investment, jobs and royalties to regions that need them.", "case_against": "Fast-tracking mining limits environmental checks and local say, and damage can last generations.", "the_tradeoff": "Regional jobs and income versus stronger environmental checks and local say." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "neutral", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "Mining policy statement to keep fast-track access", "labour": "No fast-track mining position found", "greens": "Repeal the Act; revoke new coal, gold, seabed consents", "act": "Retain fast-track access for eligible mines", "nz-first": "Builds on fast-track; national minerals survey", "te-pati-maori": "Bans seabed mining; silent on land mining", "opportunity": "Bans seabed mining; silent on land mining" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National's plan for the South Island (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817232355/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20South%20Island%20Plan.pdf?v=1786659579" }, { "title": "Green Party, Environmental Protection", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024927/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_environmental_protection" }, { "title": "ACT, Unlocking Mineral and Energy Wealth (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008001739/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38384/attachments/original/1791257386/Unlocking_Mineral_and_Energy_Wealth.pdf?1791257386" }, { "title": "NZ First, Returning 50% of mining royalties to the regions", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014242/https://www.nzfirst.nz/returning_50_of_mining_royalties_to_the_regions" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy Oceans Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043420/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/oceans-policy.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": true } ] }, { "code": "G04", "name": "Housing", "short": "Housing", "voter_weight": 19, "weight_2050": 8, "problem_voters_feel": "Rents and mortgage costs eat household budgets, and first-home buyers still need large deposits.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Rents and mortgage costs take a large share of household budgets, and first-home buyers still need large deposits despite prices easing. The gap between owners and renters, and between generations, keeps widening.", "number_to_know": "66.0% of households owned their home (or held it in a family trust) at the 2023 Census, up from 64.5% in 2018.", "source": { "title": "Stats NZ, 2023 Census housing release (3 October 2024), via Scoop", "url": "https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2410/S00089.htm" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "Home ownership has trended down since its early-1990s peak, so more people will reach retirement renting, which pushes housing costs onto pensions and the Accommodation Supplement. Whether supply keeps up depends on planning rules and on who pays for the pipes and roads that new homes need.", "number_to_know": "Ownership rose only slightly in 2023 (to 66.0%), which Stats NZ calls a small reversal of a fall that began in the early 1990s.", "source": { "title": "Stats NZ, 2023 Census housing release (3 October 2024), via Scoop", "url": "https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2410/S00089.htm" }, "pressures": [ "P2" ] }, "status_quo": "The Government's Going for Housing Growth programme requires councils to zone for 30 years of growth inside the RMA replacement, with fast-track consents for large projects. The First Home Loan offers 5% deposits with income caps of $95,000 (single) and $150,000 (couple); the bright-line test is two years and interest deductibility has been restored for landlords.", "options": [ { "option": "Free up supply through planning and consenting reform", "parties": [ "National", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Build more state and social housing directly", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Tax property gains, land or vacancy to curb speculation", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Regulate rents and rental quality", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Ease tax and rules on landlords", "parties": [ "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Make new housing prove infrastructure capacity", "parties": [ "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Help first-home buyers with deposits", "parties": [ "National" ] } ], "test_2050": "Opportunity's zoning and land tax package and the Government's Going for Housing Growth programme build the 2050 position, because they target land supply, the driver of long-run prices; Labour's extra social homes also add lasting stock. ACT's landlord tax change and National's wider 5% deposits mostly add demand, and the Greens' and Te Pāti Māori's promises borrow on uncosted building. Nobody sets a dated target for prices or ownership, or says who pays for the infrastructure that new homes need beyond development charges.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Consenting reforms and development levies on top of Going for Housing Growth", "why": "Easier consents and cost recovery for infrastructure raise the supply of serviced land, which lowers housing costs relative to incomes.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, Improving infrastructure tools for Fast-track (14 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817232236/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260814-honchrisbishop-honsimonwatts" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "$2.9b for Kāinga Ora, at least 6,000 social places", "why": "Adds permanent social stock that lowers housing costs for low-income households, though it does not change land supply.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Tens of thousands of public homes and a 2% rent cap", "why": "Uncosted building may not happen, and a rent cap can reduce rental supply, so the net effect on housing costs is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Greens, Housing (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_housing" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Rental loss offset for landlords", "why": "Lowers investors' tax costs but adds no supply, so any effect on rents is uncertain.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "ACT, ACT to abolish another of Labour's renters' taxes (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-to-abolish-another-of-labour-s-renters-taxes" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Infrastructure capacity test for fast-track housing", "why": "Better-serviced growth, but an unfunded test may slow new supply.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "NZ First, Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_policy_announcement_changes_to_fast_track_residential_approvals" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Public homes, Māori land rules and vacancy taxes", "why": "Easier building on Māori land helps supply, but uncosted building and rent control offset it.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Housing", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/housing" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "10 national zones and a 1.75% land value tax", "why": "More zoned land and a tax on holding it lower land prices, which cuts housing costs and frees capital for productive investment.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Affordable Housing", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/affordable_housing" } } ], "since_19_oct": [ { "party": "Labour", "item": "Repeal the law that could criminalise rough sleeping (final leaders' debate, 20 October).", "source": { "title": "The Spinoff, live blog of the final Stuff leaders' debate (20 October 2026)", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/20-10-2026/live-blog-stuff-leaders-debate" } } ], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Going for Housing Growth targets the land-supply driver through the RMA replacement and is funded within current baselines, but it is still being legislated and names no losers. Calibrated to the v1 housing score (13).", "relief_rationale": "Going for Housing Growth zoning and fast-track consents add supply slowly, mostly after 2029; the existing First Home Loan continues but is not new relief.", "sources": [ { "title": "Ministry for the Environment, Going for Housing Growth", "url": "https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/rma/rmreform/going-for-housing-growth/" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Builds on the Government's supply reforms with consenting fixes and development levies, all inside its fiscal plan and with a track record in office. Wider 5% deposits add demand and parking minimums cut against intensification; no losers named.", "relief_rationale": "Opening 5% deposit First Home Loans to buyers earning under $300,000 helps some first-home buyers with the deposit hurdle, but its fiscal cost of $4m to $6m signals a modest effect and no start date is given; consenting reforms and development levies (by 2029) build supply slowly.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Giving more Kiwis access to 5% first home deposits", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214710/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/backing-first-home-buyers" }, { "title": "National, National to make it easier to build the future", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909212835/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/build-the-future" }, { "title": "National, Improving infrastructure tools for Fast-track (14 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817232236/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260814-honchrisbishop-honsimonwatts" }, { "title": "National, Building the future: backing Auckland to succeed (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013211726/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261014-simonwatts" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Keep the planning reforms going and widen help with deposits.", "policies": [ "Open the 5% deposit First Home Loan to buyers earning under $300,000 (fiscal cost $4m to $6m)", "Engineers sign off parts of building work; a national consent authority for large commercial builds", "Councils recover infrastructure costs from fast-track developments; development levies by 2029", "Let councils set minimum car parking for new housing outside intensification areas" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, Giving more Kiwis access to 5% first home deposits", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214710/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/backing-first-home-buyers", "date": "2026-09-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, National to make it easier to build the future", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909212835/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/build-the-future", "date": "2026-09-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Improving infrastructure tools for Fast-track (14 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817232236/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260814-honchrisbishop-honsimonwatts", "date": "2026-08-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Building the future: backing Auckland to succeed (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013211726/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261014-simonwatts", "date": "2026-10-14", "tier": 2 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names a shortfall of social housing and the tax treatment of property; $2.9b for Kāinga Ora is in its fiscal plan (party-commissioned review, so 2). Says investors pay the gains tax, but has no planning or supply policy and the tax is opposed by National, ACT and NZ First.", "relief_rationale": "Keeping income-related rents at 25% of income reverses the Budget 2026 rise to 30% from 2027, a direct and dated saving for social housing tenants; the 6,000 extra social places over four years add some relief within the term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to get NZ building and Kiwis back to work (24 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-get-new-zealand-building-and-kiwis-back-to-work/" }, { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax" }, { "title": "Waatea News, Labour pledges to protect social housing tenants from rent hikes (1 July 2026)", "url": "https://waateanews.com/2026/07/01/labour-pledges-to-protect-social-housing-tenants-from-rent-hikes/" } ], "headline": "Build more social housing through Kāinga Ora and tax investment property gains.", "policies": [ "$2.9b capital for Kāinga Ora over four years; at least 6,000 more social housing places", "Keep income-related rents for social tenants at 25% of income (reverse the Budget 2026 rise to 30%)", "Remove rough sleeping and begging from the Move On Bill", "Capital gains tax on investment property (homed in G09; informs this score)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to get NZ building and Kiwis back to work (24 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-get-new-zealand-building-and-kiwis-back-to-work/", "date": "2026-09-24", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Waatea News, Labour pledges to protect social housing tenants from rent hikes (1 July 2026)", "url": "https://waateanews.com/2026/07/01/labour-pledges-to-protect-social-housing-tenants-from-rent-hikes/", "date": "2026-07-01", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "Labour, Move On Bill still punishes the homeless (3 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907020429/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-move-on-bill-still-punishes-the-homeless/", "date": "2026-09-03", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names housing as an investment vehicle as the driver and says landlords and speculators pay. The main promise, tens of thousands of public homes, is uncosted and a 2% rent cap risks cutting rental supply; only the tax and insulation parts are costed.", "relief_rationale": "A 2% annual cap on rent rises would be broad relief for renters if in force, but no start date or legislated timetable is given; tens of thousands of public homes are uncosted and mostly land after 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Housing (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_housing" }, { "title": "Greens, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824002908/https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" }, { "title": "Greens, Power for all of us: Full Power Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824003520/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/74612/attachments/original/1784510079/The_Greens%27_Full_Power_Policy.pdf?1784510079" } ], "headline": "Build public homes at scale, cap rents and end tax breaks for landlords.", "policies": [ "Build tens of thousands of public homes (uncosted); same-day placement for people who are homeless", "Cap rent rises at 2% a year, with new-tenancy rents linked to the previous rent", "Independently certified Rental Warrant of Fitness and tighter Healthy Homes Standards", "Remove interest deductibility for landlords and restore a 10-year bright-line test" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Housing (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_housing", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824002908/https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all", "date": "2026-06-21", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Power for all of us: Full Power Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824003520/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/74612/attachments/original/1784510079/The_Greens%27_Full_Power_Policy.pdf?1784510079", "date": "2026-08-24", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "A single tax change for landlords, costed at $1.14b in ACT's fiscal plan, rests on an asserted pass-through to rents. It does not address supply, and it would likely be reversed by the left bloc.", "relief_rationale": "Letting residential landlords offset rental losses ($1.14b over four years) is a tax cut for landlords; any relief for renters depends on an asserted pass-through to rents.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, ACT to abolish another of Labour's renters' taxes (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-to-abolish-another-of-labour-s-renters-taxes" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" } ], "headline": "Cut tax costs for landlords so they are not passed on to renters.", "policies": [ "Let residential landlords offset rental losses against other income, as commercial landlords can ($1.14b over four years)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, ACT to abolish another of Labour's renters' taxes (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-to-abolish-another-of-labour-s-renters-taxes", "date": "2026-10-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "Names infrastructure capacity as a real constraint on growth, but adds a test to fast-track housing without funding the pipes, which may slow supply. No fiscal plan; citizens-first allocation names who loses but does not add homes.", "relief_rationale": "Adding an infrastructure test to fast-track housing may slow approvals, and moving citizens up the social housing waitlist reorders the queue without adding homes; nothing lowers rents or prices this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_policy_announcement_changes_to_fast_track_residential_approvals" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (11 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" } ], "headline": "More housing, but only where infrastructure can cope; citizens first for social housing.", "policies": [ "Fast-track housing applicants must show what infrastructure they need and whether it is funded; councils advise on capacity", "Change the law so NZ citizens move up the social housing waitlist ahead of residents" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_policy_announcement_changes_to_fast_track_residential_approvals", "date": "2026-10-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (11 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies", "date": "2026-09-11", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names land banking and barriers on Māori land as drivers, and says vacant owners and buyers pay. The homes promise is not costed (only the taxes are, in its tax plan), and rent control and stamp duty can cut supply and turnover.", "relief_rationale": "2,000 homes on ancestral Māori land within four years is dated but narrow; the universal rent freeze would be broad, but it is not on the live housing page, and the 5% stamp duty raises costs for some buyers.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Housing", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/housing" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" } ], "headline": "Build public and affordable homes, enable building on Māori land and tax vacancy and land banking.", "policies": [ "Build 2,000 homes on ancestral Māori land within four years, plus more public and affordable homes", "Universal rent control: freeze all rents", "2% vacant house tax and a 33% land banking tax", "Change rules to make it easier to build on Māori and ancestral land" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Housing", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/housing", "date": "2026-08-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Housing policy (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/housing", "date": "2026-10-05" } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 3, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 3, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 3 }, "readiness_21": 16, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names land prices and zoning as the driver with evidence, and sets a measurable aim of prices 10% to 15% lower (undated). The land tax is costed in its tax package but is outside its coalition bottom lines, so delivery and durability are weak; it says plainly that prices must fall.", "relief_rationale": "National zoning and a 1.75% land value tax aim to cut prices 10% to 15%, but the effect is undated and builds through new supply; underwriting and GST refunds on new builds are also slow-acting.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Affordable Housing", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/affordable_housing" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" }, { "title": "1News, No land tax or Citizen's Income in Opportunity's bottom lines (29 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/29/no-land-tax-or-citizens-income-in-opportunitys-bottom-lines/" } ], "headline": "Make homes cheaper by building more: national zoning plus a land value tax.", "policies": [ "Replace over 1,000 planning zones with 10 national zones; national pre-approval for prefab and modular builds", "1.75% urban land value tax, which the party says would lower house prices 10% to 15%", "Underwrite affordable developments to smooth the build cycle; low-cost Crown finance for councils, community providers and iwi", "Refund GST to councils on high-standard new builds" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Affordable Housing", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/affordable_housing", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset", "date": "2026-08-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf", "date": "2026-09-04", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G04.0", "title": "Property gains tax", "statement": "Gains on residential investment property should be taxed.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether gains on rentals stay mostly untaxed, unlike wages and business income.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Profit from selling a rental is mostly untaxed unless sold within two years (the bright-line test). This would tax those gains; one proposal is 28% from July 2027, family homes exempt.", "case_for": "It taxes property gains like wages and may cool speculation that pushes prices up.", "case_against": "A new tax adds cost and complexity for investors, which could cut rental supply and lift rents.", "the_tradeoff": "Taxing property gains like income versus less investment in rentals." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "neutral", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "No new taxes in its fiscal plan", "labour": "28% tax on investment property gains from 1 July 2027", "greens": "Restore a 10-year bright-line test", "act": "No new taxes in its fiscal plan", "nz-first": "Opposes capital gains and wealth taxes", "te-pati-maori": "Taxes vacancy, land banking and purchases, not gains", "opportunity": "Taxes land value each year, not gains" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax" }, { "title": "Greens, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824002908/https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G04.1", "title": "Rent cap", "statement": "Annual rent rises should be capped by law.", "why_it_matters": "Affects every renter's yearly costs, and how many rentals landlords offer.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Rents are not capped by law now. This would limit yearly rent rises by law, for example to 2% a year.", "case_for": "Tenants get predictable costs and protection from rises they cannot afford.", "case_against": "Caps make renting out property less attractive, so fewer rentals may be offered.", "the_tradeoff": "Security for today's tenants versus the supply of rentals for future ones." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "labour": "Only social housing rents kept at 25% of income", "greens": "Rent rises capped at 2% a year", "act": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "nz-first": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "te-pati-maori": "Universal rent control in its housing policy", "opportunity": "Nothing on record by 19 October." }, "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Housing (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_housing" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Housing", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/housing" }, { "title": "Waatea News, Labour pledges to protect social housing tenants from rent hikes (1 July 2026)", "url": "https://waateanews.com/2026/07/01/labour-pledges-to-protect-social-housing-tenants-from-rent-hikes/" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G04.2", "title": "6,000 more social homes", "statement": "Kāinga Ora should add at least 6,000 social housing places over the next four years.", "why_it_matters": "Sets how much of the housing shortfall the state fills directly, costing billions.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Kāinga Ora is the government agency that builds and manages state houses. This would fund it to add at least 6,000 social housing places in four years; one proposal costs this at $2.9b.", "case_for": "The state can house people in need directly instead of waiting for the market.", "case_against": "It costs billions, and private or community builders may deliver homes more cheaply.", "the_tradeoff": "More homes for people in need versus money that cannot go elsewhere." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "labour": "$2.9b for Kāinga Ora, at least 6,000 places", "greens": "Tens of thousands of public homes, uncosted", "act": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "nz-first": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "te-pati-maori": "Build more public and affordable homes", "opportunity": "Kāinga Ora builds regional mix; no number given" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to get NZ building and Kiwis back to work (24 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-get-new-zealand-building-and-kiwis-back-to-work/" }, { "title": "Greens, Housing (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_housing" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Housing", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/housing" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Affordable Housing", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/affordable_housing" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G04.3", "title": "Landlord loss offset", "statement": "Residential landlords should be able to offset rental losses against their other income.", "why_it_matters": "Changes the tax return on leveraged property investment and its cost to the Crown.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Residential landlords whose rent does not cover costs cannot now use that loss to cut tax on other income; commercial landlords can. This would let them, costing about $1.14b over four years.", "case_for": "It treats rental housing like any other business and may encourage more rentals.", "case_against": "It costs over $1b and mostly helps investors who borrow heavily.", "the_tradeoff": "Consistent tax rules versus lost revenue and a tilt towards property." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "labour": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "greens": "Remove landlord tax breaks, including interest deductibility", "act": "$1.14b over four years in its fiscal plan", "nz-first": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "te-pati-maori": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "opportunity": "Nothing on record by 19 October." }, "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, ACT to abolish another of Labour's renters' taxes (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-to-abolish-another-of-labour-s-renters-taxes" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" }, { "title": "Greens, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824002908/https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G04.4", "title": "Fast-track housing", "statement": "Fast-track housing consents should continue without a test of local infrastructure capacity.", "why_it_matters": "Trades faster supply against the risk that pipes and roads cannot cope.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Large housing projects can now get fast-track consent without showing local pipes and roads can cope. Disagreeing would make developers show what infrastructure they need and whether it is funded.", "case_for": "Fewer hurdles mean homes get built sooner, with costs recovered through development levies.", "case_against": "Without a capacity test, new homes may overload pipes and roads, leaving ratepayers to fix them.", "the_tradeoff": "Faster housing supply versus assurance that pipes and roads can cope." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "silent", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Keep fast-track; recover infrastructure costs through development levies", "labour": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "greens": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "act": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "nz-first": "Applicants must show infrastructure capacity and funding", "te-pati-maori": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "opportunity": "Nothing on record by 19 October." }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Improving infrastructure tools for Fast-track (14 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817232236/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260814-honchrisbishop-honsimonwatts" }, { "title": "NZ First, Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_policy_announcement_changes_to_fast_track_residential_approvals" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G05", "name": "Crime and justice", "short": "Crime and justice", "voter_weight": 15, "weight_2050": 4, "problem_voters_feel": "People want to feel safe from crime at home, on the street and on public transport.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Crime and safety rank high with voters, and this term's answer has been tougher sentencing, a gang patch ban and more prison beds. The prison population is now over 11,000, and about four in ten prisoners are on remand awaiting trial or sentence, not serving a sentence.", "number_to_know": "11,256 people in prison at 30 June 2026, about 41% of them on remand (Corrections).", "source": { "title": "Corrections, Prison statistics, June 2026", "url": "https://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/statistics/quarterly_prison_statistics/prison_statistics_-_june_2026" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "On current law the Ministry of Justice projects the prison population to reach 15,200 by 2036, a 35% rise driven by recent sentencing changes and longer remand. Every extra prisoner is a lasting operating and capital cost, so justice settings chosen now feed the fiscal gap for decades unless reoffending and remand fall.", "number_to_know": "Prison population projected at 15,200 by June 2036, up 35% if nothing else changes (Ministry of Justice).", "source": { "title": "Ministry of Justice, Justice sector projections released (June 2026)", "url": "https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/media-releases/justice-sector-projections-released-june-2026/" }, "pressures": [ "P1" ] }, "status_quo": "Gang patch ban (2024), sentencing reforms this term (Sentencing (Reform) Amendment Act, Crimes Amendment Bill), a bill before Parliament to keep military-style academies for serious young offenders, and the agreed Christchurch Men's Prison expansion. The prison population is projected to rise 35% by 2036.", "options": [ { "option": "Tougher sentences and new offences", "parties": [ "National", "ACT", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "More police and enforcement powers (transport police, rural units, licensed security guards)", "parties": [ "National", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Deport non-citizens convicted of serious crimes", "parties": [ "ACT", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Rehabilitation, specialist courts and restorative justice", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Health-based drug law (decriminalise possession or cannabis)", "parties": [ "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "End youth military academies and raise the age of youth justice", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Replace prisons with Māori-led, tikanga-based alternatives", "parties": [ "Te Pāti Māori" ] } ], "test_2050": "No party fully builds the 2050 position: the projected 35% rise in prisoners is a lasting cost, and only Opportunity and the Greens aim squarely at remand and reoffending, its drivers, without costing how. ACT and National are broadly neutral: they add funded but permanent enforcement and prison costs, while Te Pāti Māori's 2040 abolition target has no path. Nobody sets a target for remand times or funds the projected prison growth to 2036.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Auckland Transport Police and sentencing changes", "why": "Small, funded additions ($7m a year) that do not change projected prison cost growth.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF, 12 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Oppose youth academies; corporate homicide", "why": "No measures large enough to move justice spending either way.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Labour, National must scrap its failed boot camps (1 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901043339/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-must-scrap-its-failed-boot-camps/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Rehabilitation and an end to mandatory sentences", "why": "Could cut prison numbers over time, but the extra court, legal aid and rehabilitation spending is uncosted.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Greens, Justice and Community Safety (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_justice_and_community_safety" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Three strikes for burglary", "why": "Adds a funded but permanent prison cost ($141m a year by 2030/31), offset inside its fiscal plan.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF, 11 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Wider deportation; gang designation", "why": "No costing, so the fiscal effect is unclear.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (11 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Abolish prisons by 2040", "why": "Would remove prison costs but replace them with uncosted alternatives, so the net effect is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Justice (PDF, via Policy.nz, accessed 14 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013210716/https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PhB4PNA7fE9Ipj5SXhRRCrmgywM-MhAx/view" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Cut remand and reoffending through courts and probation", "why": "Aims at the drivers of prison growth, but without costs or targets the net effect is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Smart on Crime", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/smart_on_crime" } } ], "since_19_oct": [ { "party": "Labour", "item": "Repeal the law that could criminalise rough sleeping (final Stuff leaders' debate, 20 October).", "source": { "title": "The Spinoff, live blog of the final Stuff leaders' debate (20 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/20-10-2026/live-blog-stuff-leaders-debate" } } ], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Current settings target offending through tougher sentences, the gang patch ban and more prison capacity, all enacted and Budget-funded with a delivery record. The Ministry of Justice projects these laws will lift prisoners 35% to 15,200 by 2036 without a stated plan to fund or offset that cost, so Future effect is 1 and Candour 1.", "relief_rationale": "The gang patch ban (2024) and this term's sentencing reforms keep running, with prison capacity growing; no new measure adds to felt safety this term and the effect on offending is not shown.", "sources": [ { "title": "Ministry of Justice, Justice sector projections released (June 2026)", "url": "https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/media-releases/justice-sector-projections-released-june-2026/" }, { "title": "Corrections, Prison statistics, June 2026", "url": "https://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/statistics/quarterly_prison_statistics/prison_statistics_-_june_2026" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names specific drivers (consent law that defines what consent is not; visible policing deterring offending on transport) and names the vehicle (Crimes Act amendments, $7m a year in the fiscal plan from Budget 2027). The offer is narrow and does not address remand or prison growth; no trade-offs stated.", "relief_rationale": "An Auckland Transport Police Team of 50 officers from Budget 2027 is dated but limited to Auckland public transport; consent law and sentencing changes deter offending slowly.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Modernise sexual consent laws", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213242/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/consent-laws" }, { "title": "National, Tougher Sentences for Sexual Offending", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/tougher-sentences" }, { "title": "National, More Police on the beat, and on the bus (13 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260913214813/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260913-markmitchell" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF, 12 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269" }, { "title": "National, National to remove right to silence when a child is murdered (18 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018202740/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20261018-paulgoldsmith" } ], "headline": "Targeted law changes on sexual offending and child deaths, plus a funded Auckland transport police team.", "policies": [ "Amend the Crimes Act so sexual consent must be actively given (\"yes means yes\")", "Bar \"good character\" as a sentencing discount for sexual offending", "Auckland Transport Police Team: 50 sworn officers, $7m a year from Budget 2027 (in fiscal plan)", "Up to 10 years' jail for adults present who stay silent when a child under 12 is killed (18 Oct)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, Modernise sexual consent laws", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213242/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/consent-laws", "date": "2026-09-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, More Police on the beat, and on the bus (13 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260913214813/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260913-markmitchell", "date": "2026-09-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF, 12 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "National, National to remove right to silence when a child is murdered (18 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018202740/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20261018-paulgoldsmith", "date": "2026-10-18", "tier": 2 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 3, "rationale": "Labour's justice offer is opposition to the youth academies bill (citing reoffending by most pilot participants), amending the Move On bill, and a corporate homicide offence. No policing, sentencing or prison policy appears in its policy index; nothing is costed.", "relief_rationale": "Opposing youth academies, amending the Move On bill and a corporate homicide offence do not address the crime voters feel; no policing or victim measure.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, National must scrap its failed boot camps (1 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901043339/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-must-scrap-its-failed-boot-camps/" }, { "title": "Labour, Move on Bill still punishes the homeless (3 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907020429/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-move-on-bill-still-punishes-the-homeless/" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will introduce corporate homicide charge (18 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260918050203/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-introduce-corporate-homicide-charge/" }, { "title": "Labour, policy index", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/policy" } ], "headline": "Opposes youth boot camps and parts of the Move On bill; would create a corporate homicide offence. No police or sentencing policy.", "policies": [ "Vote against the bill keeping military-style academies for serious young offenders", "Amend the Move On bill to remove rough sleeping and begging", "Create a corporate homicide offence for workplace deaths" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, National must scrap its failed boot camps (1 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901043339/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-must-scrap-its-failed-boot-camps/", "date": "2026-09-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Move on Bill still punishes the homeless (3 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907020429/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-move-on-bill-still-punishes-the-homeless/", "date": "2026-09-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will introduce corporate homicide charge (18 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260918050203/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-introduce-corporate-homicide-charge/", "date": "2026-09-18", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names drivers (poverty, drug criminalisation, neglect of rehabilitation) and sets out a broad, plausible path through specialist courts and restorative justice, but cites no evidence or targets. None of it is costed in the Greens' tax package, and it gives no timelines.", "relief_rationale": "Criminalising coercive control and body cameras for police would help some family violence victims; ending mandatory sentences, Te Ao Mārama in all courts and drug reform aim at reoffending over the long run. No timelines.", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Justice and Community Safety (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_justice_and_community_safety" }, { "title": "Greens, Drug Law Reform (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024559/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_drug_law_reform" }, { "title": "Greens, Gender Equity (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025231/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_gender_equity" }, { "title": "Greens, Violence Prevention (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813031121/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_violence_prevention" } ], "headline": "Prevention and rehabilitation first: restore judicial discretion, expand specialist courts, health-based drug law.", "policies": [ "End mandatory minimums, three strikes, preventive detention and limits on home detention", "Extend Te Ao Mārama to all courts; expand legal aid; raise the age of criminal responsibility", "Replace the Misuse of Drugs Act; legal regulated cannabis for personal use", "Criminalise coercive control; body cameras for frontline police; stronger IPCA" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Justice and Community Safety (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_justice_and_community_safety", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Drug Law Reform (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024559/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_drug_law_reform", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Gender Equity (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025231/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_gender_equity", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Cites reoffending after burglary release and a 15% rural prosecution rate, and books each measure in its fiscal plan, including the ongoing prison cost of three strikes for burglary ($141m a year by 2030/31). ACT delivered sentencing law as a coalition partner this term; naming that cost earns Candour 2.", "relief_rationale": "Three strikes for burglary needs a third conviction, so its prison effect builds mostly after 2029 ($141m a year by 2030/31); the rural crime unit and 100,000 extra patrol hours ($11m a year) give noticeable but narrow relief to rural communities.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Three Strikes for Burglary", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728205958/https://www.act.org.nz/burglary" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF, 11 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" }, { "title": "ACT, Rural Crime Crackdown", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210133/https://www.act.org.nz/rural-crime" }, { "title": "ACT, ACT will introduce smarter screening to improve child safety (17 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818005851/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-will-introduce-smarter-screening-to-improve-child-safety" }, { "title": "ACT, Stop Coercion by Animal Abuse", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728205934/https://www.act.org.nz/stopping-coercion" } ], "headline": "Costed enforcement package: three strikes for burglary, rural crime unit, child-safety screening, deportation.", "policies": [ "Minimum three years' prison on a third burglary conviction ($141m a year by 2030/31, in fiscal plan)", "Rural crime unit and 100,000 extra patrol hours ($11m a year)", "Working with Children card ($13m to $20m a year)", "Deport resident visa holders convicted of offences carrying 10 years or more" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Three Strikes for Burglary", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728205958/https://www.act.org.nz/burglary", "date": "2026-07-28", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF, 11 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "ACT, Rural Crime Crackdown", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210133/https://www.act.org.nz/rural-crime", "date": "2026-07-28", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Deport Serious Offenders", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210019/https://www.act.org.nz/deport", "date": "2026-07-28", "tier": 2 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "Asserts rising gang violence without data; the terrorist designation route is a petition with no legal test or process set out. Deportation widening is a clear measure, but nothing is costed and NZ First publishes no fiscal plan.", "relief_rationale": "Deportation for imprisonable offences affects a small group of offenders; gang terror designation is a petition with no legal path; a public fireworks ban gives narrow nuisance relief. None is dated.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (11 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" }, { "title": "NZ First, All Gangs Should Be Terror Entities (petition, undated)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/all-gangs-should-be-designated-terrorist-entities" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Ban Public Sales of Fireworks (9 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_ban_public_sales_of_fireworks" }, { "title": "NZ First, policy index", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy" } ], "headline": "Deportation for any imprisonable offence and a call to designate gangs as terrorist entities; no costing.", "policies": [ "Deportation liability for any imprisonable offence; automatic for violent, sexual and organised crime", "Petition to designate all gangs as terrorist entities", "Ban public sales of fireworks", "Coastguard funding up $12m a year" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (11 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies", "date": "2026-09-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, All Gangs Should Be Terror Entities (petition, undated)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/all-gangs-should-be-designated-terrorist-entities", "date": "", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Ban Public Sales of Fireworks (9 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_ban_public_sales_of_fireworks", "date": "2026-10-09", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First to increase funding and support to NZ Coastguard (15 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/increase_funding_and_support_to_nz_coastguard", "date": "2026-10-15", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "Names a driver (early criminalisation of Māori; Māori men about half the male prison population) and sets a 2040 target, but gives no path for replacing prisons for serious violent offenders and no cost or vehicle for the Māori-led justice authority.", "relief_rationale": "Abolishing prisons is set for 2040 and the Māori-led justice authority has no vehicle or date; nothing lifts felt safety this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Justice", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818042919/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/justice" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Justice (PDF, via Policy.nz, accessed 14 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013210716/https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PhB4PNA7fE9Ipj5SXhRRCrmgywM-MhAx/view" } ], "headline": "Replace prisons with tikanga-based, community alternatives by 2040 under a Māori-led justice authority.", "policies": [ "Abolish prisons by 2040", "Create a Māori-led justice authority", "Reform laws that criminalise poverty and survival", "Whānau-led care instead of uplifts of Māori children" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Justice", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818042919/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/justice", "date": "2026-08-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Justice (PDF, via Policy.nz, accessed 14 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013210716/https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PhB4PNA7fE9Ipj5SXhRRCrmgywM-MhAx/view", "date": "", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Mokopuna Māori", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/mokopuna_m_ori", "date": "", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Targets remand and reoffending (more than half reconvicted within two years) and cites NZ pilot evidence that sexual violence courts cut time to trial by about a third. No costs, targets or timelines are given.", "relief_rationale": "More court and probation funding to cut remand, and a national rollout of sexual violence courts (pilots cut time to trial by about a third), would help victims awaiting trial, but no timeline or funding level is given.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Smart on Crime", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/smart_on_crime" } ], "headline": "\"Smart on crime\": early intervention, specialist courts and rehabilitation to cut remand and reoffending.", "policies": [ "More court and probation funding to cut remand numbers", "National rollout of specialist sexual violence courts", "Raise the youth court age; expand drug and mental health courts", "Decriminalise drug possession but not supply" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Smart on Crime", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/smart_on_crime", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G05.0", "title": "Burglary three strikes", "statement": "A third burglary conviction should carry a minimum three-year prison sentence.", "why_it_matters": "Sets whether repeat burglars face certain jail, at about $141m a year by 2030/31.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Judges now decide burglary sentences case by case. This would require at least three years' prison for a third burglary conviction, costing about $141m a year by 2030/31.", "case_for": "Repeat burglars would face certain jail time, protecting homes and businesses from further break-ins.", "case_against": "It removes judges' discretion and adds to a prison population forecast to rise 35% by 2036.", "the_tradeoff": "Certainty of punishment versus higher prison costs and less room for judges to decide." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "disagree", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No burglary sentencing policy in its 2026 documents", "labour": "No sentencing policy in its 2026 policy index", "greens": "End mandatory minimum sentences and three strikes", "act": "Three to ten years, no parole or home detention", "nz-first": "No sentencing policy on its policy pages", "te-pati-maori": "Abolish prisons by 2040; move from mass imprisonment", "opportunity": "Smart on Crime does not address mandatory sentences" }, "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Three Strikes for Burglary", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728205958/https://www.act.org.nz/burglary" }, { "title": "Greens, Justice and Community Safety (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_justice_and_community_safety" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Justice (PDF, via Policy.nz, accessed 14 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013210716/https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PhB4PNA7fE9Ipj5SXhRRCrmgywM-MhAx/view" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G05.1", "title": "Youth military academies", "statement": "Military-style academies for serious young offenders should continue.", "why_it_matters": "Decides how New Zealand handles its most serious young offenders, and what it spends.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "A pilot sends serious young offenders to military-style academies. A bill before Parliament would make it permanent; disagreeing would end it.", "case_for": "Structure and discipline give serious young offenders a firm reset; a pilot needs time to prove itself.", "case_against": "Most pilot participants reoffended within a year, and the money could fund approaches with stronger evidence.", "the_tradeoff": "A discipline-based programme versus spending the money on other youth approaches." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "disagree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Its government's bill would keep the academies", "labour": "Would vote against the bill; pilot failed", "greens": "End military-style academies for young people", "act": "No stated position in its own documents", "nz-first": "No stated position in its own documents", "te-pati-maori": "No stated position in its own documents", "opportunity": "Raises youth court age; academies not mentioned" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, National must scrap its failed boot camps (1 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901043339/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-must-scrap-its-failed-boot-camps/" }, { "title": "Greens, Justice and Community Safety (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_justice_and_community_safety" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G05.2", "title": "Deport serious offenders", "statement": "Residents who are not citizens should be deported if convicted of a serious crime.", "why_it_matters": "Widens deportation liability beyond current immigration law.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Immigration law already allows some non-citizen offenders to be deported. This would widen it, for example to anyone convicted of an offence carrying 10 years or more, however long they have lived here.", "case_for": "Removing serious offenders who are not citizens protects the public and sets clear terms for residence.", "case_against": "Deporting long-term residents can split families and send people to countries they barely know.", "the_tradeoff": "Tougher terms for residence versus the impact on families." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "silent", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No deportation policy in its 2026 documents", "labour": "No deportation policy in its 2026 documents", "greens": "No deportation policy in its justice documents", "act": "Offences carrying 10 years or more, regardless of residence length", "nz-first": "Any imprisonable offence; automatic for violent and sexual crimes", "te-pati-maori": "No deportation policy in its documents", "opportunity": "No deportation policy in its documents" }, "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Deport Serious Offenders", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210019/https://www.act.org.nz/deport" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (11 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G06", "name": "Climate, energy and environment", "short": "Climate and energy", "voter_weight": 17, "weight_2050": 15, "problem_voters_feel": "Power bills and fuel costs keep rising, and flood-prone households are losing insurance cover.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Power bills and fuel exposure are what households feel: gas supply is falling, dry years push up wholesale prices, and a Middle East shock this year exposed reliance on imported fuel. Flood and coastal risk is now arriving through insurance, with insurers restricting cover in flood-prone towns before any public adaptation funding is in place.", "number_to_know": "97% of central government natural hazard spending since 2010 went on response and recovery, 3% on reducing risk (Sapere for IAG, 2025).", "source": { "title": "Insurance Business NZ, Flood cover restrictions arrive before adaptation funding (July 2026)", "url": "https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/nz/news/catastrophe/flood-cover-restrictions-arrive-before-nz-climate-adaptation-funding-does-582772.aspx" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "Net zero for long-lived gases by 2050 is in law, and meeting it means roughly doubling electricity supply while gas runs down. The cost of climate damage grows each decade, so the open question is who pays when places become uninsurable: owners, councils or the Crown.", "number_to_know": "Net zero emissions of long-lived gases by 2050 is written into the Climate Change Response Act 2002.", "source": { "title": "Climate Change Response Act 2002 (as amended by the Zero Carbon Amendment Act 2019)", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/whole.html" }, "pressures": [ "P3", "P2", "P4" ] }, "status_quo": "Net zero 2050 is in law, the ETS runs with an auction price floor ($71 in 2026) and agricultural emissions are not priced. The offshore exploration ban was repealed in 2025; adaptation cost-sharing and managed retreat rules were deferred to the next term.", "options": [ { "option": "Keep net zero and strengthen the ETS, including farm emissions", "parties": [ "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Keep net zero, keep farm emissions out of pricing, focus on renewables and electricity market rules", "parties": [ "National", "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Repeal net zero or leave Paris; cut carbon costs and expand gas", "parties": [ "ACT", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Public or community ownership of new generation and firming", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "A dedicated, funded adaptation and resilience fund", "parties": [ "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Large new marine protection (30% to 50% of ocean area)", "parties": [ "National", "Greens", "Opportunity" ] } ], "test_2050": "Opportunity and the Greens build the 2050 position most, pairing new renewable supply with emissions pricing and a funded adaptation fund. ACT borrows from it by repealing net zero and the Commission, while National, Labour, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori offer energy fixes that leave long-run emissions and climate damage costs largely where they are. Nobody sets out who pays when a town becomes uninsurable, or a managed retreat law with cost shares.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P3", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Electrify NZ 2.0 dry-year back-up contract; no adaptation policy", "why": "Improves energy security, but unpriced farm emissions and silence on adaptation leave climate risk unaddressed.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Electrify NZ 2.0", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001233231/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Electrify%20NZ%202.0.pdf?v=1790887430" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P3", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "ETS review and SolarSaver", "why": "Tightens carbon pricing over time, but with no adaptation or managed retreat plan.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour to accelerate climate action", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-accelerate-climate-action/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P3", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Kiwipower, full ETS coverage, adaptation fund", "why": "Adds firming capacity, prices all emissions and funds adaptation, lowering long-run damage and supply risk.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "The Greens' Full Power Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824003520/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/74612/attachments/original/1784510079/The_Greens%27_Full_Power_Policy.pdf?1784510079" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P3", "effect": "borrows", "policy": "Repeal net zero and the Climate Change Commission", "why": "Removes the target and the independent body while doing nothing on adaptation, pushing emissions and damage costs forward.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907002257/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37031/attachments/original/1788642905/Scrap_Net_Zero_policy_09.pdf?1788642905" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P3", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Leave Paris; $1b resource survey; fixed-price generation contracts", "why": "More domestic gas and generation may help supply security, but leaving Paris and ignoring adaptation leave climate risk unpriced.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Breaking up the Gentailers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014033/https://www.nzfirst.nz/breaking_up_the_gentailers" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P3", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "$1b Energy Sovereignty Fund; withdraw oil and gas permits", "why": "Builds local renewables, but ending gas without a replacement supply plan raises dry-year risk.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "We Want Cheaper Power and We Want Our People To Own It", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P3", "effect": "builds", "policy": "30 GW target, Industry Energy Resilience Fund, $5b resilience fund", "why": "Adds renewable supply through a tested scheme and funds adaptation ahead of damage.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Abundant Energy Policy", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/abundant-energy-policy.pdf" } }, { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Electrify NZ 2.0 market rules", "why": "Lower connection and lines costs may ease prices, but no new supply target.", "durable": "yes", "source": { "title": "Electrify NZ 2.0", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001233231/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Electrify%20NZ%202.0.pdf?v=1790887430" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "SolarSaver loans", "why": "Cuts household bills for those who take it up; small effect on wholesale prices.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour's Solar Saver", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015858/https://www.labour.org.nz/solarsaver" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Kiwipower firming entity", "why": "Cheaper firming lowers the price-setting peaks that drive wholesale prices.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "The Greens' Full Power Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824003520/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/74612/attachments/original/1784510079/The_Greens%27_Full_Power_Policy.pdf?1784510079" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Private transmission; remove ETS price floor", "why": "Lower carbon and connection costs may ease prices, but net effect on supply is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Stability, investment, affordability", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260928225632/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37361/attachments/original/1789601230/Stability__investment__affordability.pdf?1789601230" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Split gentailers; fixed-price contracts", "why": "Could lower prices if designed well; no design published.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Breaking up the Gentailers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014033/https://www.nzfirst.nz/breaking_up_the_gentailers" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Energy independence plan and price fairness framework", "why": "Price regulation without new supply has unclear effect.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "We Want Cheaper Power and We Want Our People To Own It", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "30 GW by 2050 and capacity investment scheme", "why": "Abundant renewable supply lowers wholesale prices and supports electrified industry.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Abundant Energy Policy", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/abundant-energy-policy.pdf" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Net zero and the ETS give a legislated path with a price floor and agencies in place, but farm emissions are unpriced and adaptation cost-sharing has been deferred, so long-run risk is pushed forward (Future effect 1). The Zero Carbon framework has survived one change of government, but two governing partners want it repealed (Durability 2).", "relief_rationale": "Current settings add nothing new on power bills: gas supply keeps falling, the ETS price floor rises, and adaptation cost-sharing is deferred while insurers restrict flood cover.", "sources": [ { "title": "Climate Change Response Act 2002", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/whole.html" }, { "title": "Crown Minerals Amendment Act 2025", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_Minerals_Amendment_Act_2025" }, { "title": "Insurance Business NZ, Flood cover restrictions arrive before adaptation funding", "url": "https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/nz/news/catastrophe/flood-cover-restrictions-arrive-before-nz-climate-adaptation-funding-does-582772.aspx" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Electrify NZ 2.0 names real energy drivers (the dry-year back-up gap as gas runs down, lines charges) and gives named legal changes, with QEII and fiscal items in the fiscal plan. It keeps farm emissions unpriced and says nothing on adaptation or who pays for managed retreat, so the long-run effect is neutral at best; marine protection to 50% of the EEZ by 2040 is the strongest durable item.", "relief_rationale": "Electrify NZ 2.0 rule changes (dry-year back-up contract, affordability objective for the Electricity Authority, two-day solar connections) and the Home Energy Fund's 10-year solar and battery loans for homeowners with 20% equity could start this term, but no start date or bill saving is given and market fixes act slowly.", "sources": [ { "title": "Electrify NZ 2.0", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001233231/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Electrify%20NZ%202.0.pdf?v=1790887430" }, { "title": "Growing more to feed the world", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018201850/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Growing%20More%20to%20Feed%20the%20World.pdf?v=1792108210" }, { "title": "National's plan for healthy fisheries", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233946/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261010-toddmcclay" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Electrify through market rules and home solar; keep farm emissions out of pricing; expand ocean protection.", "policies": [ "Electrify NZ 2.0: dry-year back-up power contract, affordability made an Electricity Authority objective, cheaper transmission access, sell solar to any retailer", "Home Energy Fund: 10-year low-interest loans for solar and batteries; consent-free rooftop solar", "Agricultural emissions stay out of the ETS; $300m concessional loans for water storage", "Protect 50% of the EEZ by 2040; ratify the High Seas Treaty; double QEII National Trust funding to $8.5m a year" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Electrify NZ 2.0", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001233231/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Electrify%20NZ%202.0.pdf?v=1790887430", "date": "2026-10-02", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Home Energy Fund", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909212639/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/solar", "date": "2026-09-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Growing more to feed the world", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018201850/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Growing%20More%20to%20Feed%20the%20World.pdf?v=1792108210", "date": "2026-10-16", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National's plan for healthy fisheries", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233946/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261010-toddmcclay", "date": "2026-10-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Labour names a driver (a carbon price too low to cut emissions) and SolarSaver is in its fiscal plan ($153m), but the ETS fix is a review with no target or timeline. It is silent on adaptation, conservation and fresh water, so the whole offer is a modest emissions and solar package rather than a long-run build.", "relief_rationale": "SolarSaver loans plus up to $3,000 kickstart subsidy for low and middle income households, booked at $153m over the four years of its fiscal plan, give noticeable bill relief to those who take it up within the term; the ETS fix is a review only.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour to accelerate climate action", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-accelerate-climate-action/" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Labour's Solar Saver", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015858/https://www.labour.org.nz/solarsaver" } ], "headline": "Fix the ETS so the carbon price bites, back home solar, reinstate the exploration ban.", "policies": [ "Urgent ETS review; pause new forestry registrations; rules against whole-farm conversions", "SolarSaver: lines-company and ratepayer loans plus up to $3,000 kickstart subsidy ($153m over four years in the fiscal plan)", "Reinstate the ban on new offshore oil and gas exploration permits", "Stay in Paris; work towards a Pacific agreement on mitigation, adaptation and displacement" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour to accelerate climate action", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-accelerate-climate-action/", "date": "2026-09-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour's Solar Saver", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015858/https://www.labour.org.nz/solarsaver", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "Carbon News, Labour vows to reinstate oil and gas ban", "url": "https://www.carbonnews.co.nz/news/35126/labour-vows-to-reinstate-oil-and-gas-ban", "date": "2025-08-06", "tier": 3 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 3, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "The fullest diagnosis (gross emissions, firming, farm emissions, hazard risk) with named vehicles (Kiwipower, ETS reform, a resilience fund) and a clear long-run build. Kiwipower and the energy programme are costed against the wealth tax, but the adaptation fund and farm pricing transition are uncosted (Funding 1), and much depends on the Greens alone (Durability 1).", "relief_rationale": "Warmer Kiwi Homes expanded to 50,000 upgrades over four years ($970m) and zero-interest clean energy loans for up to 90% of homeowners give noticeable bill relief within the term; Kiwipower firming ($980m) mostly lands later.", "sources": [ { "title": "The Greens' Full Power Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824003520/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/74612/attachments/original/1784510079/The_Greens%27_Full_Power_Policy.pdf?1784510079" }, { "title": "Climate Action: Emissions Reduction", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023241/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2020_climate_action_emissions_reduction" }, { "title": "Climate Action: Resilience and Adaptation", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023329/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_climate_action_resilience_adaptation" }, { "title": "A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" } ], "headline": "Price all emissions including farms, build public firming, end fossil extraction, fund adaptation.", "policies": [ "Kiwipower: a public Crown entity buying renewable firming (about $980m over four years, funded by the wealth tax)", "ETS as true cap-and-trade: phase out free allocation, price agricultural emissions, cut gross not net", "Dedicated adaptation and resilience fund; extend the Natural Hazards Commission to climate events (uncosted)", "Protect 30% of oceans; nitrogen caps; Warmer Kiwi Homes expansion ($970m over four years); repeal Fast-track" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "The Greens' Full Power Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824003520/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/74612/attachments/original/1784510079/The_Greens%27_Full_Power_Policy.pdf?1784510079", "date": "2026-08-24", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Climate Action: Emissions Reduction", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023241/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2020_climate_action_emissions_reduction", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Climate Action: Resilience and Adaptation", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023329/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_climate_action_resilience_adaptation", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all", "date": "2026-06-21", "tier": 1 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 0, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "ACT names a driver (carbon costs and regulatory barriers raising prices) and books the auction refund in its fiscal plan, but tying targets to trading partners is asserted, not shown to work. Repealing net zero and the Commission while saying nothing on adaptation shifts large unpriced liabilities forward (Future effect 0), and the repeal would likely be reversed (Durability 0).", "relief_rationale": "Removing the ETS price floor could lower the carbon cost in fuel and power, but it has no start date or modelled price effect; the auction refund is a household income payment already credited in G01, and repealing net zero does not lower bills this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907002257/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37031/attachments/original/1788642905/Scrap_Net_Zero_policy_09.pdf?1788642905" }, { "title": "Stability, investment, affordability", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260928225632/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37361/attachments/original/1789601230/Stability__investment__affordability.pdf?1789601230" }, { "title": "Unlocking Mineral and Energy Wealth", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008001739/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38384/attachments/original/1791257386/Unlocking_Mineral_and_Energy_Wealth.pdf?1791257386" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" } ], "headline": "Repeal net zero, cut the carbon price, open up gas and mining, and free up the power market.", "policies": [ "Repeal the Zero Carbon Act; tie targets to trading partners; abolish the Climate Change Commission", "Remove the ETS price floor; return 100% of auction money as a tax refund; agriculture permanently out", "Keep offshore gas exploration; insure LNG import infrastructure; statutory compensation if permits are withdrawn", "Private transmission investment; sell surplus solar to any buyer; ban scallop dredging in closed fisheries" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907002257/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37031/attachments/original/1788642905/Scrap_Net_Zero_policy_09.pdf?1788642905", "date": "2026-09-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Stability, investment, affordability", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260928225632/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37361/attachments/original/1789601230/Stability__investment__affordability.pdf?1789601230", "date": "2026-09-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Unlocking Mineral and Energy Wealth", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008001739/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38384/attachments/original/1791257386/Unlocking_Mineral_and_Energy_Wealth.pdf?1791257386", "date": "2026-10-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 0, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "NZ First names a driver (gentailer market power, energy security) but the split and fixed-price contracts are asserted with no design or costing, and the $1b survey has a cost but no funding source. Leaving Paris is a bottom line with no stated trade or cost consequences (Candour 0); silent on adaptation.", "relief_rationale": "Splitting the gentailers and guaranteeing fixed-price contracts for new generation are structural reforms with no design or date; the $1b subsurface survey yields nothing by 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "Breaking up the Gentailers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014033/https://www.nzfirst.nz/breaking_up_the_gentailers" }, { "title": "Returning 50% of mining royalties to the regions", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014242/https://www.nzfirst.nz/returning_50_of_mining_royalties_to_the_regions" }, { "title": "NZ First, policy pages and speeches", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy" } ], "headline": "Leave Paris, split the gentailers, and search for more oil, gas and minerals.", "policies": [ "Leave the Paris Agreement (a stated bottom line)", "Split generation from retail; guarantee long-term fixed-price contracts for new generation", "$1b subsurface survey for oil, gas, geothermal and minerals; half of mining royalties kept in the regions", "Special Economic Zone at Marsden Point for energy and port use; Coastguard funding up $12m a year" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Breaking up the Gentailers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014033/https://www.nzfirst.nz/breaking_up_the_gentailers", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, policy pages and speeches", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy", "date": "2026-10-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Returning 50% of mining royalties to the regions", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014242/https://www.nzfirst.nz/returning_50_of_mining_royalties_to_the_regions", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "1News, Peters takes crack at Luxon over Paris", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/01/peters-takes-crack-at-luxon-over-paris-climate-agreement-stance/", "date": "2026-09-01", "tier": 3 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names fossil import dependence and energy shocks as the driver, with a $1b fund and a 2035 goal, but the path from fund to supply is not set out and the fund is only loosely matched to its tax package. Withdrawing permits within five years without a replacement supply plan leaves the energy-security effect unclear.", "relief_rationale": "The $1b Energy Sovereignty Fund targets marae, papakāinga and Māori land, a narrow group; household solar support and fair export pay have no detail or date; withdrawing oil and gas permits within five years could tighten gas supply.", "sources": [ { "title": "We Want Cheaper Power and We Want Our People To Own It", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it" }, { "title": "Climate", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043455/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/climate" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax" } ], "headline": "Energy sovereignty through Māori and community ownership; end oil and gas; fund at-risk communities.", "policies": [ "$1b Energy Sovereignty Fund for marae, papakāinga and Māori land", "National energy independence plan, energy sovereignty by 2035; fair pay for household exports", "Withdraw oil and gas permits within five years; ban seabed mining", "Adaptation funding prioritised to at-risk communities; Māori authority over freshwater" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "We Want Cheaper Power and We Want Our People To Own It", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it", "date": "2026-09-16", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Climate", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043455/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/climate", "date": "2026-06-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Freshwater Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043557/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/freshwater_policy", "date": "2026-08-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 3, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 3, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 16, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "A measurable 30 GW target delivered through a tested Australian capacity investment scheme, an industry decarbonisation fund tied to ETS revenue, and a $5b resilience fund: the most complete answer across emissions, energy and adaptation. Funding is a stated source (gentailer dividends, green bonds, infrastructure borrowing) but not in a full fiscal plan (Funding 1); the Commission and climate credibility are bottom lines, and it would book the NDC cost on the Crown balance sheet (Candour 2).", "relief_rationale": "30 GW by 2050, distributor consolidation and a single regulator are structural and slow; the $80m a year Warmer Kiwi Homes expansion gives narrow relief, and the $5b resilience fund is undated.", "sources": [ { "title": "Abundant Energy Policy", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/abundant-energy-policy.pdf" }, { "title": "Industry Energy Resilience Fund", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909023726/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/industry_energy_resilience_fund" }, { "title": "Intergenerational Infrastructure", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811031858/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/intergenerational-infrastructure.pdf" }, { "title": "Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines" } ], "headline": "30 GW of renewables by 2050, a stronger ETS with farms in, and a $5b resilience fund.", "policies": [ "30 GW by 2050 via an Australian-style capacity investment scheme, funded from about $500m a year in gentailer dividends", "$1b Industry Energy Resilience Fund (green bond against ETS revenue) to get industry off coal and gas", "ETS with an agricultural mechanism, no new exotic forestry; keep the Climate Change Commission (bottom line)", "$5b climate resilience fund incl. $500m nature-based; 30% marine reserves by 2035; inshore bottom trawling out by 2030" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Abundant Energy Policy", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/abundant-energy-policy.pdf", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Industry Energy Resilience Fund", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909023726/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/industry_energy_resilience_fund", "date": "2026-09-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Climate Action", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042618/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/climate_action", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Intergenerational Infrastructure", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811031858/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/intergenerational-infrastructure.pdf", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Healthy Oceans Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043420/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/oceans-policy.pdf", "date": "2026-02-01", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G06.0", "title": "Keep net zero 2050", "statement": "New Zealand should keep its net zero 2050 target.", "why_it_matters": "The target sets every emissions budget to 2050, and the costs households and industry face.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Net zero means New Zealand's long-lived greenhouse gases are balanced by removals by 2050. It is in law now; disagreeing would repeal the target or leave the Paris Agreement.", "case_for": "A fixed target gives business certainty and keeps New Zealand's climate promises.", "case_against": "Meeting it adds costs to households and industry while far bigger countries emit much more.", "the_tradeoff": "Lower emissions and credibility versus lower costs now." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "No change proposed; says it supports Paris", "labour": "Keeps target; urgent ETS review to meet it", "greens": "Keeps and strengthens to a 1.5 degree path", "act": "Repeal Zero Carbon Act and net zero goal", "nz-first": "Leave the Paris Agreement, a bottom line", "te-pati-maori": "End oil and gas; energy sovereignty by 2035", "opportunity": "Climate credibility is a bottom line; align with Paris" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260907002257/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37031/attachments/original/1788642905/Scrap_Net_Zero_policy_09.pdf?1788642905" }, { "title": "Labour to accelerate climate action", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-accelerate-climate-action/" }, { "title": "Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G06.1", "title": "Oil and gas exploration", "statement": "New oil and gas exploration should continue to be allowed.", "why_it_matters": "Weighs gas supply and power prices now against emissions locked in for decades.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The ban on new offshore oil and gas exploration was repealed in 2025, so new permits are allowed again. Disagreeing would bring the ban back or end fossil fuel extraction.", "case_for": "Gas supply is falling, and new local fields could ease power prices and reliance on imports.", "case_against": "New fields lock in emissions for decades when the 2050 target needs gas to run down.", "the_tradeoff": "Energy security now versus the path to net zero by 2050." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "disagree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "disagree", "opportunity": "disagree" }, "notes": { "national": "Supports gas security; kept the 2025 repeal", "labour": "Reinstate the 2018 ban on new permits", "greens": "End all fossil fuel extraction", "act": "Keep offshore gas exploration; insure LNG imports", "nz-first": "$1b oil, gas and geothermal survey", "te-pati-maori": "Withdraw oil and gas permits within five years", "opportunity": "Renewables only; retire gas plants" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Unlocking Mineral and Energy Wealth", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008001739/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38384/attachments/original/1791257386/Unlocking_Mineral_and_Energy_Wealth.pdf?1791257386" }, { "title": "Carbon News, Labour vows to reinstate oil and gas ban", "url": "https://www.carbonnews.co.nz/news/35126/labour-vows-to-reinstate-oil-and-gas-ban" }, { "title": "We Want Cheaper Power and We Want Our People To Own It", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G06.2", "title": "Price farm emissions", "statement": "Agricultural emissions should be priced through the ETS or a similar scheme.", "why_it_matters": "Farming is about half of gross emissions and unpriced; pricing it hits farm incomes.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) makes emitters pay for each tonne of greenhouse gas. Farming is about half of gross emissions but is not priced now; this would add it.", "case_for": "Pricing every big source treats all emitters alike and gives farmers a reason to cut emissions.", "case_against": "It adds costs to a key export industry and could shift production overseas rather than cut emissions.", "the_tradeoff": "Lower farm emissions versus farm incomes and export earnings." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Keep agriculture out of the ETS", "labour": "ETS review covers forestry and farm conversions only", "greens": "Framework to price agricultural emissions", "act": "Agriculture permanently out of ETS and targets", "nz-first": "No farm pricing policy found", "te-pati-maori": "Regenerative approaches; no pricing stance", "opportunity": "Add an agricultural mechanism to the ETS" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Growing more to feed the world", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018201850/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Growing%20More%20to%20Feed%20the%20World.pdf?v=1792108210" }, { "title": "Climate Action: Emissions Reduction", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023241/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2020_climate_action_emissions_reduction" }, { "title": "Climate Action", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042618/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/climate_action" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G06.3", "title": "Climate adaptation fund", "statement": "The Government should set up a dedicated fund to pay for climate adaptation.", "why_it_matters": "Without one, councils and owners carry flood and coastal costs as insurers retreat.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Adaptation means preparing for floods and rising seas, such as stopbanks or moving homes. This would create a dedicated fund; none exists now.", "case_for": "One study found only 3% of central government hazard spending since 2010 went on reducing risk; a fund invests before disasters hit.", "case_against": "A fund could cost billions and may encourage people to stay in risky places at taxpayers' cost.", "the_tradeoff": "Shared public cost versus owners and councils carrying the risk as insurers pull back." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "neutral", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "No adaptation funding policy found", "labour": "No domestic adaptation policy found", "greens": "Dedicated adaptation and resilience fund (uncosted)", "act": "No adaptation policy found", "nz-first": "No adaptation policy found", "te-pati-maori": "Prioritise adaptation funding; no dedicated fund named", "opportunity": "$5b climate resilience fund" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Climate Action: Resilience and Adaptation", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023329/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_climate_action_resilience_adaptation" }, { "title": "Intergenerational Infrastructure", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811031858/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/intergenerational-infrastructure.pdf" }, { "title": "Climate", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043455/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/climate" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G06.4", "title": "Split power companies", "statement": "The big power companies should be split into separate generators and retailers.", "why_it_matters": "It is the main structural option for power prices on the table.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Most big power companies both generate electricity and sell it to households. A split would separate those two parts; now the market is managed through regulation and market rules.", "case_for": "Separation could stop firms favouring their own retail arms and bring more price competition.", "case_against": "Splitting firms is costly and disruptive, and could slow investment in new generation.", "the_tradeoff": "More competition versus slower building of the power supply needed by 2050." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "neutral", "greens": "neutral", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "neutral", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "Better regulation and market rules, not a split", "labour": "\"Not off the table\"; not policy", "greens": "Public firming company instead of a split", "act": "Keep current model; cites no competition problem", "nz-first": "Split generation from retail", "te-pati-maori": "Regulate prices through a fairness framework", "opportunity": "Commerce Commission power to force separation" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Breaking up the Gentailers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014033/https://www.nzfirst.nz/breaking_up_the_gentailers" }, { "title": "Stability, investment, affordability", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260928225632/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37361/attachments/original/1789601230/Stability__investment__affordability.pdf?1789601230" }, { "title": "Electrify NZ 2.0", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001233231/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Electrify%20NZ%202.0.pdf?v=1790887430" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G07", "name": "Education and skills", "short": "Education", "voter_weight": 9, "weight_2050": 8, "problem_voters_feel": "Children missing school and falling behind in reading and maths, plus rising school and study costs for families.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Too many children are not in class often enough, and results in reading, writing and maths have slipped. This term parents also face a second round of curriculum and qualification changes, and rising school costs.", "number_to_know": "64.3% of students were present for more than 90% of Term 2 2026, against a government target of 80%.", "source": { "title": "DPMC, Government Targets factsheet: Target 6, regular school attendance (June 2026 update)", "url": "https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/gt-factsheet-target-6-jun26.pdf" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "As the population ages, fewer workers will support each retiree, so each worker's skills and output matter more for incomes and tax. Children now in school will be the core of that workforce through the 2050s, and AI will change which skills pay.", "number_to_know": "3.8 working-age people for each person over 65 today; about 2.8 by 2050.", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, "pressures": [ "P2" ] }, "status_quo": "A new Years 0 to 10 curriculum built on structured literacy and maths (schools have until 2029), with NCEA being replaced by the NZCE and NZACE from 2028, a phone ban and an 80% attendance target. School lunches run on a cheaper central model funded to 2029; tertiary is fees-free in the final year only.", "options": [ { "option": "Continue and extend this term's curriculum and NCEA replacement", "parties": [ "National" ] }, { "option": "Pause or reset the reforms and hand curriculum design to an independent body", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Locally made or expanded school lunches", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Free or better-resourced early childhood education", "parties": [ "Greens", "Opportunity", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Student loan relief", "parties": [ "National", "Labour", "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "More trades training and apprenticeships", "parties": [ "National", "Labour", "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Classroom discipline and lower school costs", "parties": [ "ACT", "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Māori-led education authority", "parties": [ "Te Pāti Māori", "Greens" ] } ], "test_2050": "National, Labour and Opportunity build the 2050 skills base: National through foundational literacy, trades places and teacher training; Labour and Opportunity through an independent curriculum body that could stop the churn each election brings. The Greens' free ECE and fees-free tertiary would widen access but are uncosted, so they borrow against a budget already squeezed by ageing. Nobody sets out how schools and tertiary providers should retrain workers for AI at scale, or plans for school rolls that will shrink as birth rates fall.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Structured literacy and maths, Year 11 leaving rule, 20,000 Trades Academy places", "why": "Stronger foundational skills and more trade-ready school leavers lift the skills of the future workforce.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Independent curriculum council and extended Apprenticeship Boost", "why": "Stable, expert-led curriculum and longer apprentice support raise skills without a reset each election.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum (Ginny Andersen on record)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/17/labour-says-it-will-set-up-body-to-oversee-nzs-school-curriculum/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Free ECE and fees-free tertiary", "why": "Wider access could raise skills, but the main promises are uncosted, so the net effect is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Green Party, Tertiary Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030938/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_tertiary_education" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Classroom discipline and lower uniform costs", "why": "May protect teaching time, but does not change what or how students learn at scale.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, Disrupt the Class, Leave the Class", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025653/https://www.act.org.nz/disrupt-the-class-leave-the-class" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Nutrition teaching; student visa work limits", "why": "No schools or skills plan, so no effect on workforce skills either way.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First, Campaign Announcement: The Plan to Make NZ Healthy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921001655/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_the_plan_to_make_nz_healthy" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Māori Education Authority and kōhanga funding", "why": "Could improve Māori learner outcomes, but no evidence path or funding source, and likely to be reversed.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori announces a Māori Education Authority (Scoop)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811032531/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2608/S00006/te-pati-maori-announces-maori-education-authority-to-restore-maori-success-in-education.htm" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Ten-year education plan, independent council, 20-year Skills and Learning Accord", "why": "Long-term, cross-party planning links school, vocational and academic learning to future skill needs.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Future Fit Education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042902/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/future_fit_education" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Names falling literacy and maths results and responds with structured literacy, a new curriculum and an 80% attendance target, funded in Budget 2026 and being delivered by the Ministry. Attendance sits at 64.3%, the NZCE replacement is untested, and school lunches are funded only to 2029, so Future effect is 1. The curriculum is gazetted and backed by all three coalition parties.", "relief_rationale": "The structured literacy curriculum, phone ban and 80% attendance target continue, and school lunches run on the cheaper central model to 2029. Attendance is 64.3% against the target and the curriculum has until 2029 to bed in, so effects on results land mostly after the term.", "sources": [ { "title": "DPMC, Government Targets factsheet: Target 6, regular school attendance (June 2026 update)", "url": "https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/gt-factsheet-target-6-jun26.pdf" }, { "title": "1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum (includes Government NZCE/NZACE timetable)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/17/labour-says-it-will-set-up-body-to-oversee-nzs-school-curriculum/" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names a driver (falling maths and reading, screens, untrained teachers) and sets measurable targets (20,000 Trades Academy places by 2030, 704 teacher places from 2028). Costed in its fiscal plan and delivered by the agency already doing the work. A switch to A+ to E grades is plausible but untested, and no trade-offs of a second qualification change are named.", "relief_rationale": "Core school offers (A+ to E grades replacing NCEA, Year 11 leaving rule, 20,000 Trades Academy places by 2030, 704 teacher places from 2028) are structural and land mostly after 2029. The student loan repayment rate cut from 12% to 10% in 2026/27 gives dated, costed relief to repaying graduates.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" }, { "title": "National, School Onsite Training Programme to provide 704 places every year from 2028", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260820040900/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260803-honericastanford" }, { "title": "National, Back Pocket Boost for Graduates", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213957/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/boost-for-graduates" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Finish this term's reforms and go further: grades and exams, tighter screen rules, more trades places.", "policies": [ "Replace NCEA with A+ to E grades and regular exams; new curriculum embedded at all levels", "Students must finish Year 11 or turn 16, whichever is later; no screens in ECE, strict limits in Years 1 to 3", "Double Trades Academy places to 20,000 by 2030; 704 onsite teacher training places a year from 2028", "Student loan repayment rate cut from 12% to 10% ($77m plus $296m in 2026/27); tougher recovery from overseas borrowers" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287", "date": "2026-09-28", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, National will lift school leaving requirements", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011234754/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261011-ericastanford", "date": "2026-10-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Screen use to end in ECE and limits set in primary", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260920231019/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260920-screen-use-to-end-in-ece-and-limits-set", "date": "2026-09-20", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, School Onsite Training Programme to provide 704 places every year from 2028", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260820040900/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260803-honericastanford", "date": "2026-08-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Back Pocket Boost for Graduates", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213957/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/boost-for-graduates", "date": "2026-08-31", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names churn in curriculum and assessment as a driver and proposes an independent council with a dated start (expert group within three months), plus funded apprenticeships and school costs in its reviewed fiscal plan. The council builds stability and is shared by Opportunity; the costs of a year's pause for schools mid-rollout are not named. The council policy is sourced from an on-record spokesperson statement, not a party page.", "relief_rationale": "Fresh, locally made school lunches from Term 1 2028 at $5 a meal ($6.50 for Years 9 to 13) and fewer branded uniform items give dated cost relief to families this term. The apprentice toolbox grant is scored in G03; the curriculum pause holds settings steady, and the 10% loan write-off builds to 2031.", "sources": [ { "title": "1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum (Ginny Andersen on record)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/17/labour-says-it-will-set-up-body-to-oversee-nzs-school-curriculum/" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Labour, Expanding Apprenticeship Boost", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015736/https://www.labour.org.nz/apprenticeshipboost" }, { "title": "Labour, Cutting back-to-school costs", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013213843/https://www.labour.org.nz/cutting-back-to-school-costs" } ], "headline": "Pause the curriculum rollout, set up an independent curriculum body, and cut school and student costs.", "policies": [ "Independent Council for Curriculum and Assessment (about $500,000 a year); pause unimplemented curriculum changes for a year; NCEA unchanged until 2029", "Fresh, locally made school lunches from Term 1 2028 at $5 a meal ($6.50 for Years 9 to 13); fewer branded uniform items", "Apprenticeship Boost extended to two years with a $1,000 toolbox grant ($56.5m a year); Māori trades training fund ($21m a year)", "Write off 10% of student loans for graduates who stay in New Zealand (about $40m a year by 2031)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum (Ginny Andersen on record)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/17/labour-says-it-will-set-up-body-to-oversee-nzs-school-curriculum/", "date": "2026-09-17", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "Labour, Cutting back-to-school costs", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013213843/https://www.labour.org.nz/cutting-back-to-school-costs", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Expanding Apprenticeship Boost", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015736/https://www.labour.org.nz/apprenticeshipboost", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour is backing Māori into skilled work", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260831215040/https://www.labour.org.nz/maori-trades-training", "date": "2026-08-29", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to cut student debt", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260927082853/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-cut-student-debt/", "date": "2026-09-27", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Names cost and under-resourcing as barriers and sets dated targets for ECE (35 free hours by 2029) and lunches (400 more schools). Lunches and te reo sit in the party's costed table, but free ECE, fees-free tertiary and a universal allowance are uncosted, and delivery is mostly intent.", "relief_rationale": "Restoring Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunches and extending them to about 150,000 more children is booked in the Greens' costed table, noticeable relief for many families this term. The $10 a day ECE cap is undated and 35 funded hours by 2029 is a target, and fees-free tertiary has no start date.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024752/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_education" }, { "title": "Green Party, Green Budget: Early Childhood Education for Everyone", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260922014519/https://www.greens.org.nz/green_budget_early_childhood_education_for_everyone" }, { "title": "Green Party, Tertiary Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030938/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_tertiary_education" }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" } ], "headline": "Free early childhood and tertiary education, permanent school lunches, and a reset of this term's reforms.", "policies": [ "Cap ECE fees at $10 a day, then 35 free hours a week by 2029; end public funding for for-profit centres by 2028", "Restore and permanently fund Ka Ora, Ka Ako, extended to about 400 more schools (150,000 more children)", "Fees-free tertiary education, a universal student allowance and paid work placements", "Reset the curriculum and NCEA changes; $50m a year for te reo Māori, including teacher training" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024752/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_education", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Green Budget: Early Childhood Education for Everyone", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260922014519/https://www.greens.org.nz/green_budget_early_childhood_education_for_everyone", "date": "2025-05-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Office of ECE, Election 2026: A guide to political party promises for early childhood education", "url": "https://oece.nz/newsroom/politics/election-2026-early-childhood-education-policy-guide/", "date": "2026-10-16", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "Green Party, Green Party announces plan for free and nutritious school lunches", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260820233515/https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_announces_plan_for_free_and_nutritious_school_lunches", "date": "2026-08-20", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Tertiary Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030938/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_tertiary_education", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Ake, Ake, Ake: Green Party commits $200m to the future of te reo Māori", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260914025043/https://www.greens.org.nz/ake_ake_ake_green_party_commits_200m_to_the_future_of_te_reo_maori", "date": "2026-09-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all", "date": "2026-06-21", "tier": 1 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Targets symptoms (classroom disruption, uniform costs) rather than what drives achievement or skills, and offers little on teaching, trades or tertiary. Its costed items sit in the fiscal plan and use named law changes; it names who pays (parents fined, other education spending cut for buses). Labour shares the uniform policy.", "relief_rationale": "A three-item cap on branded uniforms, legal power to remove seriously disruptive students and a $500 fund for Year 11 students offer some relief to parents and classrooms, but no start dates are given and the reach on attendance and results is narrow.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Disrupt the Class, Leave the Class", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025653/https://www.act.org.nz/disrupt-the-class-leave-the-class" }, { "title": "ACT, Affordable School Uniforms", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025456/https://www.act.org.nz/affordable-uniforms" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" }, { "title": "ACT, Let the Kid on the Bus", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025852/https://www.act.org.nz/let-the-kid-on-the-bus" } ], "headline": "Order in class, lower school costs and more choice.", "policies": [ "Legal power for teachers to remove seriously disruptive students; parents fined for missing behaviour meetings", "Limit state schools to three compulsory branded uniform items", "Index private school subsidies to public school grants ($100m over four years) and a $500 investment fund for Year 11 students ($35m a year)", "Ban ethnicity-based support at universities; make Student Services Fees voluntary" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Disrupt the Class, Leave the Class", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025653/https://www.act.org.nz/disrupt-the-class-leave-the-class", "date": "2026-08-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Affordable School Uniforms", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025456/https://www.act.org.nz/affordable-uniforms", "date": "2026-08-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "ACT, Equal Treatment at Universities", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025608/https://www.act.org.nz/equal-treatment-at-universities", "date": "2026-08-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, ACT to campaign on making Student Services Fees voluntary", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817225426/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-to-campaign-on-making-student-services-fees-voluntary", "date": "2026-08-10", "tier": 2 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 3, "rationale": "Not silent, but only peripheral items: nutrition teaching and student visa work rights (scored mainly in migration). No schools, early childhood or skills policy, no cost and no trade-offs.", "relief_rationale": "Only nutrition teaching and removing student visa work rights; nothing lands on attendance, results or school costs by 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Campaign Announcement: The Plan to Make NZ Healthy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921001655/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_the_plan_to_make_nz_healthy" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260911013910/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" } ], "headline": "No stated schools or skills plan; only nutrition teaching and tighter student visas.", "policies": [ "Promote nutrition from primary school to medical school", "Remove automatic work rights from student visas" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Campaign Announcement: The Plan to Make NZ Healthy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921001655/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_the_plan_to_make_nz_healthy", "date": "2026-09-20", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260911013910/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies", "date": "2026-09-11", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names a driver (a system that does not connect Māori learners to identity) and states some costs (kōhanga capital $20m a year plus $50m), but gives no funding source, timeline or evidence path for a Māori Education Authority. The Greens back a similar authority, but a change of government would likely undo it.", "relief_rationale": "The main offer, a Māori Education Authority and te reo as a core subject, is structural and lands after 2029. Expanded lunches, free student transport and free counselling would relieve costs for many families but have no start date; the $20m a year kōhanga capital fund helps a small group.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori announces a Māori Education Authority (Scoop)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811032531/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2608/S00006/te-pati-maori-announces-maori-education-authority-to-restore-maori-success-in-education.htm" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Education and Training", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/education_training" }, { "title": "Office of ECE, Election 2026: A guide to political party promises for early childhood education", "url": "https://oece.nz/newsroom/politics/election-2026-early-childhood-education-policy-guide/" } ], "headline": "A Māori Education Authority and more money for kōhanga, kura and wānanga.", "policies": [ "Create a Māori Education Authority to govern Māori education", "Te reo Māori a core subject to Year 10; mātauranga Māori across the curriculum", "Kōhanga reo capital fund of $20m a year plus a one-off $50m for about 80 new builds or refurbishments; a Kōhanga Reo Act", "Expanded school lunches, free public transport for students, free school counselling" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori announces a Māori Education Authority (Scoop)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811032531/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2608/S00006/te-pati-maori-announces-maori-education-authority-to-restore-maori-success-in-education.htm", "date": "2026-08-02", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Education and Training", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/education_training", "date": "2026-08-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Office of ECE, Election 2026: A guide to political party promises for early childhood education", "url": "https://oece.nz/newsroom/politics/election-2026-early-childhood-education-policy-guide/", "date": "2026-10-16", "tier": 3 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Names politicisation and short-term churn as drivers of falling results and proposes an independent curriculum council, measurable ECE ratios and a 20-year tertiary accord. Costs are 'spread over ten years' with only loan forgiveness ($95m) stated; delivery depends on cross-party agreement. Labour proposes a similar council.", "relief_rationale": "A ten-year cross-party plan, an independent curriculum council and a 20-year tertiary accord are plans whose effect falls after 2029. Better ECE ratios have no date, and loan interest forgiveness for returning Kiwis reaches a small group.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Future Fit Education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042902/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/future_fit_education" }, { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901211428/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy Overview (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260729012044/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/breakthrough-economy-policy-overview.pdf" } ], "headline": "A ten-year cross-party education plan with curriculum set by an independent council.", "policies": [ "Ten-year cross-party education plan; independent council for curriculum and assessment, including a review of the NCEA replacement", "Better ECE ratios (1:3 under two, 1:5 two to three, 1:8 over three) and more core funding for community services", "20-year Skills and Learning Accord for universities, wānanga and polytechs; restore adult and community education", "Forgive student loan interest for returning Kiwis, for up to three years overseas (about $95m)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Future Fit Education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042902/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/future_fit_education", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901211428/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education", "date": "2026-09-02", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Office of ECE, Election 2026: A guide to political party promises for early childhood education", "url": "https://oece.nz/newsroom/politics/election-2026-early-childhood-education-policy-guide/", "date": "2026-10-16", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy Overview (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260729012044/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/breakthrough-economy-policy-overview.pdf", "date": "2026-07-01", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G07.0", "title": "NCEA replacement", "statement": "NCEA should be replaced with new qualifications from 2028, as planned.", "why_it_matters": "Sets how every school leaver's results are graded and read, from 2028.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "NCEA is the main secondary school qualification. It is due to be replaced from 2028 by new qualifications (NZCE and NZACE) with A+ to E grades and more exams. Disagreeing delays or reverses that.", "case_for": "Clear grades and regular exams could lift standards and make results easier to read.", "case_against": "Another big change unsettles students and teachers while a new curriculum is still rolling out.", "the_tradeoff": "A faster reset of standards versus stability for schools." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "disagree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "Replace NCEA with A+ to E grades and exams", "labour": "Keep NCEA unchanged until 2029 pending council advice", "greens": "Reset reforms; qualifications to follow curriculum", "act": "Only wants agriculture kept at Year 11", "nz-first": "No qualifications policy", "te-pati-maori": "No qualifications policy", "opportunity": "Independent council to review the NCEA replacement" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" }, { "title": "1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum (Ginny Andersen on record)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/17/labour-says-it-will-set-up-body-to-oversee-nzs-school-curriculum/" }, { "title": "Green Party, Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024752/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_education" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Future Fit Education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042902/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/future_fit_education" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G07.1", "title": "Independent curriculum council", "statement": "An independent council should set the school curriculum and assessment.", "why_it_matters": "Takes detailed curriculum design out of ministers' hands to reduce churn.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Ministers now decide what schools teach and how students are assessed. This would hand that to an independent council.", "case_for": "It would cut the churn that comes with each change of government, giving schools a steady plan.", "case_against": "Ministers answer to voters for school results; an independent council would be less accountable.", "the_tradeoff": "Long-term stability versus democratic control over what children learn." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "neutral", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Government-set curriculum; no stated view on a council", "labour": "Independent Council for Curriculum and Assessment", "greens": "Educator-led decisions; no council proposed", "act": "No curriculum governance policy", "nz-first": "No curriculum governance policy", "te-pati-maori": "Māori Education Authority for Māori education only", "opportunity": "Independent council within a ten-year plan" }, "sources": [ { "title": "1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum (Ginny Andersen on record)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/17/labour-says-it-will-set-up-body-to-oversee-nzs-school-curriculum/" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Future Fit Education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042902/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/future_fit_education" }, { "title": "Green Party, Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024752/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_education" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G07.2", "title": "Local school lunches", "statement": "School lunches should be cooked by schools or local providers.", "why_it_matters": "Affects what lunch students get each school day, and how far the funding stretches.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Free school lunches (Ka Ora, Ka Ako) now run on a cheaper central model funded to 2029. This would return to meals cooked by schools or local providers; one proposal pays $5 a meal.", "case_for": "Locally made meals can be fresher, suit students better and support local jobs.", "case_against": "The central model costs less per meal, so local cooking means more spending or fewer meals.", "the_tradeoff": "Meal quality and local jobs versus how far the funding stretches." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Current central model funded to 2029; no new policy", "labour": "Fresh, locally made lunches from Term 1 2028", "greens": "Restore Ka Ora, Ka Ako with local providers", "act": "No lunch policy", "nz-first": "No lunch policy", "te-pati-maori": "Expand lunches; delivery model not stated", "opportunity": "Restore the original lunch programme" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Cutting back-to-school costs", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013213843/https://www.labour.org.nz/cutting-back-to-school-costs" }, { "title": "Green Party, Green Party announces plan for free and nutritious school lunches", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260820233515/https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_announces_plan_for_free_and_nutritious_school_lunches" }, { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901211428/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori announces a Māori Education Authority (Scoop)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811032531/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2608/S00006/te-pati-maori-announces-maori-education-authority-to-restore-maori-success-in-education.htm" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G07.3", "title": "Loan repayment rate", "statement": "Student loan repayments should fall from 12% to 10% of income above the threshold.", "why_it_matters": "Leaves graduates more pay each week, but loans take longer to repay.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Graduates now repay 12% of income above a set threshold on student loans. This would drop it to 10%.", "case_for": "Graduates keep more of each pay, easing living costs early in their careers.", "case_against": "Loans take longer to repay, so the Government gets its money back more slowly.", "the_tradeoff": "More take-home pay now versus slower repayment to the Crown." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "neutral", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Repayment rate to 10%, costed in fiscal plan", "labour": "10% balance write-off instead; rate not addressed", "greens": "Reduce student loan repayments; no rate stated.", "act": "No student loan policy", "nz-first": "No student loan policy", "te-pati-maori": "No student loan policy", "opportunity": "Interest forgiveness for returning Kiwis instead" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Back Pocket Boost for Graduates", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213957/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/boost-for-graduates" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to cut student debt", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260927082853/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-cut-student-debt/" }, { "title": "Green Party, Tertiary Education (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030938/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_tertiary_education" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Breakthrough Economy Overview (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260729012044/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/breakthrough-economy-policy-overview.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G08", "name": "Migration and population", "short": "Migration", "voter_weight": 11, "weight_2050": 7, "problem_voters_feel": "Young New Zealanders leaving for Australia, skill gaps in health and construction, and worry that intake strains housing and infrastructure.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Young, skilled New Zealanders are leaving for Australia in near-record numbers, while net migration has fallen from a record 133,700 in late 2023 to about 20,000. Health and construction lean on overseas-trained workers, and voters split on whether migration eases skill shortages or strains housing and infrastructure.", "number_to_know": "12,471 citizens left in January to March 2026, the most for that quarter since 2013; net migration was 20,503 in the year to August 2026.", "source": { "title": "China Daily HK, citing Stats NZ, on migration to Australia (October 2026)", "url": "https://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/641085" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "As the population ages, migration is the main lever on the size of the workforce that pays for Super and health. Too little leaves fewer workers per retiree; too much without housing and infrastructure planning pushes up rents and congestion.", "number_to_know": "3.8 working-age people per person aged 65 or over today; 2.8 by 2050.", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, "pressures": [ "P1", "P2", "P4" ] }, "status_quo": "Settings are employer-led: the Accredited Employer Work Visa, residence after two years for some skilled workers, citizenship after five, a new Parent Boost visa and a loosened Active Investor Plus visa. Residents can get most benefits after two years; there is no population target or immigration policy statement.", "options": [ { "option": "Plan intake around housing and infrastructure capacity", "parties": [ "Labour", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "A legislated annual cap on resident visas", "parties": [ "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Longer waits for residence, citizenship or benefits", "parties": [ "National", "Labour", "ACT", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Charge temporary migrants for infrastructure", "parties": [ "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Bring New Zealanders home through partner visas or student loan relief", "parties": [ "National", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "More humanitarian and Pacific access, worker protections and residency pathways", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens" ] } ], "test_2050": "Labour's capacity-based policy statement and NZ First's 30-year Population Plan are the only answers that would tie migration to housing and infrastructure for the long run, though neither sets out a population path. National, ACT and NZ First's longer stand-downs save money now but shrink the pool of working-age migrants an ageing population will need. Nobody states what population or worker-to-retiree ratio they are aiming for, or how they would close the wage gap that drives citizens to Australia.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Partner visas; five-year benefit stand-down", "why": "Small gains in returning Kiwis and welfare savings, with little change to the size of the workforce.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National's plan to welcome more Kiwis home", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/261013-nicolawillis" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Immigration Government Policy Statement", "why": "Makes capacity planning a standing rule, so intake can be matched to workforce and housing needs over time.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-ensure-an-immigration-system-that-works-for-new-zealand-1/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Refugee quota 5,000; residency pathways", "why": "Adds settled residents but is not aimed at workforce or productivity.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Immigration and Refugees", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025607/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_immigration_and_refugees" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "$6 a day visa levy; scrap permanent residence", "why": "Makes temporary migrants pay toward infrastructure, but tighter rules may cut skilled intake.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "A Fair Contribution", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025255/https://www.act.org.nz/fair-contribution" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "20,000 cap; NZ Super for citizens only", "why": "Saves some Super spending but reduces the future workers who fund it; net effect unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First announces immigration reform policies", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "No stated position", "why": "Silent; no effect either way.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, policy pages", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Loan interest forgiveness for returning Kiwis", "why": "May bring some graduates back; the population strategy has no content yet.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Breakthrough Economy", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/breakthrough-economy" } }, { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Partner visas; five-year benefit stand-down", "why": "Small gains in returning Kiwis and welfare savings, with little change to the size of the workforce.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National's plan to welcome more Kiwis home", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/261013-nicolawillis" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Immigration Government Policy Statement", "why": "Makes capacity planning a standing rule, so intake can be matched to workforce and housing needs over time.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-ensure-an-immigration-system-that-works-for-new-zealand-1/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Refugee quota 5,000; residency pathways", "why": "Adds settled residents but is not aimed at workforce or productivity.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Immigration and Refugees", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025607/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_immigration_and_refugees" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "$6 a day visa levy; scrap permanent residence", "why": "Makes temporary migrants pay toward infrastructure, but tighter rules may cut skilled intake.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "A Fair Contribution", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025255/https://www.act.org.nz/fair-contribution" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "20,000 resident visa cap; 30-year Population Plan", "why": "Links growth to infrastructure, but a hard cap shrinks the working-age pool as the population ages.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First announces immigration reform policies", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "No stated position", "why": "Silent; no effect either way.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, policy pages", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Loan interest forgiveness for returning Kiwis", "why": "May bring some graduates back; the population strategy has no content yet.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Breakthrough Economy", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/breakthrough-economy" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Current settings respond to employer demand visa by visa, with no population goal or link to housing and infrastructure capacity, and do nothing direct about citizen departures. Visa settings are funded and run by Immigration NZ (Delivery 2), but change with each government.", "relief_rationale": "Employer-led settings (Accredited Employer Work Visa, two-year skilled residence, the new Parent Boost visa) keep filling some skill gaps, but nothing addresses citizen departures, which hit a 2013-high in early 2026.", "sources": [ { "title": "OECD International Migration Outlook 2025: New Zealand", "url": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/international-migration-outlook-2025_ae26c893-en/full-report/new-zealand_d51aa952.html" }, { "title": "China Daily HK, citing Stats NZ", "url": "https://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/641085" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "National names a driver (young people choosing to raise families elsewhere) and its items are in the fiscal plan, but faster partner visas and loan penalties are small levers against the Australian wage gap. The benefit stand-down names who pays (new residents) and the saving ($49m over four years).", "relief_rationale": "Faster partner visas for citizens' partners in the first 100 days is dated but helps a small group. The benefit stand-down from 2028 and tougher loan recovery do not relieve departures or pressure on services this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "National's plan to welcome more Kiwis home", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/261013-nicolawillis" }, { "title": "A firm, fair and affordable welfare system", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008023106/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/A%20firm,%20fair%20and%20affordable%20welfare%20system.pdf?v=1791407915" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Bring Kiwis home and tighten welfare access for new residents.", "policies": [ "Prioritise and expedite work and visitor visas for partners of NZ citizens (first 100 days)", "Benefit eligibility for new residents from two to five years from 2028; refugees exempt (saves $49m over four years)", "Extra 1% interest and stronger recovery for overseas student loan defaulters; $10m to IRD", "Trial digital trans-Tasman travel (home in G12)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National's plan to welcome more Kiwis home", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/261013-nicolawillis", "date": "2026-10-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "A firm, fair and affordable welfare system", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008023106/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/A%20firm,%20fair%20and%20affordable%20welfare%20system.pdf?v=1791407915", "date": "2026-10-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Back Pocket Boost for Graduates", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213957/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/boost-for-graduates", "date": "2026-08-31", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Labour names a driver (intake not matched to housing and infrastructure) and a named vehicle, a Government Policy Statement, which would make capacity planning routine: a modest long-run build. No costs, numbers or timelines are given (Funding 1, generous; see flags), and it does not say who loses from the longer residence wait.", "relief_rationale": "A Government Policy Statement linking intake to housing and infrastructure is a plan; a longer residence wait and freer employer moves after three months help or affect specific groups, with no start dates. Little lands on departures by 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-ensure-an-immigration-system-that-works-for-new-zealand-1/" }, { "title": "Labour will expand visa-waiver travel to Pacific citizens", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260920191315/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-expand-visa-waiver-travel-to-pacific-citizens/" } ], "headline": "Plan migration around capacity, protect migrant workers, and widen Pacific access.", "policies": [ "Government Policy Statement setting immigration goals around workforce, housing and infrastructure", "Residence qualifying period from two to four years, with civic orientation", "Migrants can move between accredited employers after three months", "Citizenship pathway for NZ-born children; visa-waiver visits for Pacific Islands Forum citizens" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-ensure-an-immigration-system-that-works-for-new-zealand-1/", "date": "2026-09-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour will expand visa-waiver travel to Pacific citizens", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260920191315/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-expand-visa-waiver-travel-to-pacific-citizens/", "date": "2026-09-17", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "The Greens focus on fairness for migrants and refugees (exploitation, family reunification) rather than on the size or skills of the population. The 5,000 refugee quota and the end to health screening are uncosted, with no delivery timeline beyond 2029.", "relief_rationale": "A refugee quota of 5,000 by 2029, residency pathways for long-settled migrants and clearing family reunification backlogs would help particular migrant groups, but most items have no start date and none addresses departures or skill gaps.", "sources": [ { "title": "Immigration and Refugees", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025607/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_immigration_and_refugees" }, { "title": "Overseas New Zealanders", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030243/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_overseas_new_zealanders" } ], "headline": "More humanitarian and Pacific access, residency pathways, and stronger ties to New Zealanders overseas.", "policies": [ "Refugee quota to 5,000 by 2029; clear family reunification backlogs", "Residency pathways for long-settled migrants, including some with expired visas; open work rights", "Replace the RSE scheme; extend visa-free travel to Pacific citizens", "Abolish acceptable standards of health rules; citizenship for all with Māori whakapapa; longer overseas voting rights" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Immigration and Refugees", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025607/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_immigration_and_refugees", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Overseas New Zealanders", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030243/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_overseas_new_zealanders", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Pacific Peoples", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030402/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_pacific_peoples", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "ACT names a driver (temporary migrants use infrastructure they do not fund) with a concrete levy and revenue estimate ($80m a year) that names who pays. The levy is not shown as a line in its fiscal plan (Funding 1), and the tighter visa rules shrink intake without a view on population size.", "relief_rationale": "A $6 a day surcharge on temporary work visas (about $80m a year) and tighter residence and benefit rules give a small, undated contribution to infrastructure pressure and nothing on departures.", "sources": [ { "title": "A Fair Contribution", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025255/https://www.act.org.nz/fair-contribution" }, { "title": "ACT's new immigration policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901031352/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2609/S00003/acts-new-immigration-policy-to-put-reside-back-in-resident.htm" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" } ], "headline": "Make migrants pay their way and tighten residence rules.", "policies": [ "$6 a day infrastructure surcharge on temporary work visas (ACT estimate $80m a year; not in its fiscal plan)", "Replace permanent residence with a resident visa requiring two of every five years in NZ", "Five-year benefit stand-down for residents; English test for all accredited employer visas", "12-month expiry on accredited employer visas; overstayer enforcement unit; deport residents for serious offences" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "A Fair Contribution", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025255/https://www.act.org.nz/fair-contribution", "date": "2026-08-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT's new immigration policy to put 'reside' back in 'resident'", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901031352/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2609/S00003/acts-new-immigration-policy-to-put-reside-back-in-resident.htm", "date": "2026-09-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Deport Serious Offenders", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210019/https://www.act.org.nz/deport", "date": "2026-08-07", "tier": 2 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "NZ First names a driver (net migration outrunning infrastructure) and a hard lever, a 20,000 cap with a 30-year Population Plan, but no costing, no referendum date and no evidence of the cap's effect on the workforce. It names who pays (non-citizens), but not the cost of a smaller workforce to an ageing population.", "relief_rationale": "The main lever, a 20,000 resident visa cap, depends on a referendum with no date, and the 30-year Population Plan is a plan. Replacing the Accredited Employer Work Visa could tighten skill supply this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First announces immigration reform policies", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" }, { "title": "NZ First to scrap Accredited Working Visa model", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012001423/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_scrap_accredited_working_visa_model" } ], "headline": "Cut and condition migration: a referendum on a 20,000 resident visa cap and longer paths to citizenship.", "policies": [ "Referendum on a legislated cap of 20,000 resident visas a year; a 30-year Population Plan tied to infrastructure", "Citizenship after at least 10 years, residence after five; 10-year benefit stand-down; NZ Super for citizens only", "Replace the Accredited Employer Work Visa with a shortage-led visa and wage floor; end automatic student work rights", "Wider deportation; overstayer amnesty to self-deport; citizenship by birth only for children of citizens" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First announces immigration reform policies", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies", "date": "2026-09-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First to scrap Accredited Working Visa model", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012001423/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_scrap_accredited_working_visa_model", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ Super for citizens only", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260911012209/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_nz_super_for_citizens_only", "date": "2026-09-06", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": true, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 0, "Mechanism": 0, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 0, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 0, "Durability": 0, "Candour": 0 }, "readiness_21": 0, "voter_15": 0, "rationale": "Silent: no migration or population policy found on the party's site or in the Policy.nz migration topic to 19 October 2026.", "relief_rationale": "Silent: no migration or population policy found to 19 October 2026.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, policy pages", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/" } ], "headline": "No stated position on migration or population.", "policies": [], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, policy pages", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/", "date": "2026-10-19", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Opportunity ties talent loss to weak productivity and costs a $95m a year loan-interest offer for returning Kiwis, funded at package level from its Tax Reset. The population strategy is a one-line intent with no content.", "relief_rationale": "Forgiving loan interest for returning Kiwis ($95m a year) helps a small group with no start date; the population strategy has no content.", "sources": [ { "title": "Breakthrough Economy", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/breakthrough-economy" } ], "headline": "Keep young Kiwis here through a stronger economy; a cross-party population strategy.", "policies": [ "Forgive student loan interest for Kiwis who return ($95m a year)", "Launch a cross-party population strategy (no detail published)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Breakthrough Economy", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/breakthrough-economy", "date": "2026-10-19", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G08.0", "title": "Resident visa cap", "statement": "The number of resident visas should be capped at 20,000 a year.", "why_it_matters": "A cap would set intake by law rather than by employer demand.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Resident visa numbers now follow employer demand, with no population target. This would set a legal limit of 20,000 a year.", "case_for": "A fixed number lets housing, roads and services be planned to match new residents.", "case_against": "A hard cap could leave health and construction short of workers as the population ages.", "the_tradeoff": "Predictable growth versus fewer workers to support a growing number of retirees." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "silent", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No cap proposed", "labour": "Policy statement on capacity; no number", "greens": "No cap proposed; wants more pathways", "act": "Tighter rules; no cap proposed", "nz-first": "Referendum on a 20,000 a year cap", "te-pati-maori": "No migration policy", "opportunity": "Population strategy; no cap stated" }, "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First announces immigration reform policies", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" }, { "title": "Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-ensure-an-immigration-system-that-works-for-new-zealand-1/" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G08.1", "title": "Longer wait for residence", "statement": "Migrants should wait longer than two years before qualifying for permanent residence.", "why_it_matters": "The wait shapes who settles and how long they stay on temporary visas.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Some skilled migrants can now get permanent residence after two years. This would make them wait longer, for example four or five years.", "case_for": "A longer wait means people show they are settled and committed before getting permanent rights.", "case_against": "Longer waits keep workers on temporary visas, and skilled people may choose countries with faster routes.", "the_tradeoff": "More time to test commitment versus losing skilled migrants elsewhere." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "silent", "act": "neutral", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No change proposed", "labour": "Residence qualifying period from two to four years", "greens": "New residency pathways; no stance on wait", "act": "Scrap permanent residence; two of five years presence", "nz-first": "Residence after five years, citizenship after ten", "te-pati-maori": "No migration policy", "opportunity": "No residence policy found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-ensure-an-immigration-system-that-works-for-new-zealand-1/" }, { "title": "NZ First announces immigration reform policies", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" }, { "title": "ACT's new immigration policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260901031352/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2609/S00003/acts-new-immigration-policy-to-put-reside-back-in-resident.htm" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G08.2", "title": "Benefit stand-down", "statement": "New residents should wait at least five years before they can get a benefit.", "why_it_matters": "Weighs welfare savings against a safety net for new residents who lose work.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "New residents can now get most benefits after two years. This would make them wait at least five years; one proposal exempts refugees.", "case_for": "It saves money (about $49m over four years in one estimate) and expects newcomers to support themselves.", "case_against": "New arrivals who lose work through no fault of their own would have little to fall back on.", "the_tradeoff": "Welfare savings versus a safety net for newcomers." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "silent", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Two to five years from 2028; refugees exempt", "labour": "No stand-down policy found", "greens": "No stand-down policy found", "act": "Five-year stand-down for residence visa holders", "nz-first": "Ten-year stand-down for non-citizens", "te-pati-maori": "No migration policy", "opportunity": "No stand-down policy found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "A firm, fair and affordable welfare system", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008023106/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/A%20firm,%20fair%20and%20affordable%20welfare%20system.pdf?v=1791407915" }, { "title": "Deport Serious Offenders", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210019/https://www.act.org.nz/deport" }, { "title": "NZ First announces immigration reform policies", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G08.3", "title": "Keep employer-led visas", "statement": "The Accredited Employer Work Visa should continue as the main skilled work visa.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether employers or a shortage list pick skilled migrants, and at what pay.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The Accredited Employer Work Visa lets approved employers hire skilled workers from overseas. Disagreeing would replace it with a visa based on a shortage list and a wage floor.", "case_for": "Employers know which skills they need and can fill gaps quickly without waiting for a list.", "case_against": "Employer-led visas can hold down local wages; a shortage list targets real gaps.", "the_tradeoff": "Flexibility for employers versus tighter control over who comes and at what pay." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "neutral", "act": "neutral", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No change proposed in party documents", "labour": "Strengthen it; switch employers after three months", "greens": "Keep work visas but let workers switch freely", "act": "Keep, with 12-month expiry and English test", "nz-first": "Replace with shortage-led visa and wage floor", "te-pati-maori": "No migration policy", "opportunity": "No visa policy found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-ensure-an-immigration-system-that-works-for-new-zealand-1/" }, { "title": "NZ First to scrap Accredited Working Visa model", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012001423/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_scrap_accredited_working_visa_model" }, { "title": "Deport Serious Offenders", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210019/https://www.act.org.nz/deport" }, { "title": "Immigration and Refugees", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025607/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_immigration_and_refugees" } ], "in_quiz": true } ] }, { "code": "G09", "name": "Tax, public finances and retirement", "short": "Tax and retirement", "voter_weight": 8, "weight_2050": 19, "problem_voters_feel": "The tax they pay, whether NZ Super will be there at 65, and a deficit that squeezes public services.", "stakes_now": { "text": "The budget is still in deficit, with surplus forecast for 2028/29, and the parties split on whether to tax capital and land or hold the tax mix and restrain spending. NZ Super is the largest single line, and only one party proposes changing its age.", "number_to_know": "NZ Super costs about $23b a year today (Treasury).", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "By 2050 there are 2.8 working-age people per person over 65, against 3.8 now, and Super and health costs rise faster than tax. Without changes, net core Crown debt climbs steadily from about 40% of GDP in 2031.", "number_to_know": "Net core Crown debt reaches about 96% of GDP by 2050 if nothing changes (this report's rebasing of Treasury's 2025 path onto PREFU 2026); NZ Super rises from $23b to $76b a year.", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, "pressures": [ "P1", "P2" ] }, "status_quo": "NZ Super is paid from 65 and indexed to wages; there is no capital gains, wealth or land tax; income tax runs from 10.5% to 39% and company tax is 28% with Investment Boost. Treasury's pre-election forecast (PREFU 2026) returns to surplus in 2028/29 with debt about 39.5% of GDP in 2030/31.", "options": [ { "option": "Hold the tax mix and restrain spending under fiscal rules", "parties": [ "National", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Tax capital gains on investment property", "parties": [ "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Tax wealth and inheritances, and raise company tax on the largest firms", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Swap taxes on work for a land value tax", "parties": [ "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Raise the NZ Super age to 67", "parties": [ "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Keep the Super age at 65 and limit Super to citizens", "parties": [ "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Make KiwiSaver compulsory and lift contributions", "parties": [ "National", "Labour", "NZ First", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "An independent costing office for party and government spending", "parties": [ "National", "Labour", "Greens", "Opportunity" ] } ], "test_2050": "ACT is the only party whose plan clearly builds the 2050 fiscal position, through a later Super age and spending cuts, but NZ First's bottom line makes it fragile. NZ First borrows most from the future, while the Greens and Opportunity broaden the tax base but promise more than it raises, and National and Labour leave the debt path where current settings put it. No party proposes changes at the scale Treasury says would hold debt steady, and none says how health spending rising from 6.9% to 9.4% of GDP will be paid for.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Fiscal rules, no new taxes, compulsory KiwiSaver", "why": "Rules hold debt this term and KiwiSaver builds private saving, but Super and health growth are untouched, so 2050 debt matches current settings (about 96%).", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, National's Budget Responsibility Rules", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214251/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/responsibility-rules" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Capital gains tax and 20% net debt goal", "why": "New revenue is spent on health, so the 2050 debt path stays near 96%.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Fiscal Strategy (23 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824015034/https://www.labour.org.nz/fiscal-strategy" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Wealth, inheritance and company taxes", "why": "Taxes raise more than costed spending (debt 86% by 2050), but uncosted pledges push it to about 115%.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Super age 67 by 2035 and spending cuts", "why": "A later Super age is one of Treasury's costed levers and gives the lowest 2050 debt path (74%).", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "borrows", "policy": "No Super age rise; unfunded spending and debt-funded BNZ buy-back", "why": "About $2.3b a year of unfunded spending takes 2050 debt to about 104%.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "NZ First, NZ Super for Citizens Only (6 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260911012209/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_nz_super_for_citizens_only" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Wealth, company and land taxes", "why": "Revenue roughly matches its tax cuts, so 2050 debt barely moves (95%); nothing on Super.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Land value tax, Citizen's Income, infrastructure borrowing", "why": "A broader tax base nets about $1.9b a year from 2038, but $60b of borrowing and the health target take 2050 debt to 100% (138% with left-out costs).", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } }, { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Keep Investment Boost; compulsory KiwiSaver", "why": "Keeps an investment incentive and grows a domestic capital pool, but leaves untaxed property gains steering capital into housing.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Capital gains tax; repeal Investment Boost", "why": "Taxing property gains tilts investment away from housing, but repealing Investment Boost weakens the incentive for business capital.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Wealth tax and 33% tax on large firms", "why": "Shifts tax onto capital and large firms with no stated effect on investment or productivity.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Smaller government and untaxed KiwiSaver earnings", "why": "Lower spending and higher after-tax returns on saving free resources for private investment.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "borrows", "policy": "20% small-firm tax rate and BNZ buy-back", "why": "An unfunded tax cut and debt-funded state purchase add to borrowing without a tested productivity path.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "NZ First, Lowering Tax Rate for SMEs to 20%", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924022431/https://www.nzfirst.nz/20_tax_rate_for_smes" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Land banking tax and vacant house tax", "why": "Penalises idle land and homes, but higher company tax and an offshore profits tax may deter investment.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Land value tax replacing taxes on work", "why": "Taxing land rather than work and capital is the least distorting tax, and lower house prices free capital for productive use.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } } ], "since_19_oct": [ { "party": "Labour", "item": "Keep NZ Super eligibility at 65, with no stated funding (final Stuff leaders' debate, 20 October).", "source": { "title": "1News, Chris v Chris: no mistake, no magic moment (21 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/21/chris-v-chris-no-mistake-no-magic-moment/" } } ], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Current settings return to surplus in 2028/29 on Treasury's forecast and run through the Public Finance Act, but leave Super, health cost growth and a narrow tax base untouched, so debt rises to about 96% of GDP by 2050.", "relief_rationale": "Super stays at 65 indexed to wages and Treasury forecasts a surplus in 2028/29, but nothing new lands for households this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 3, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Fiscal rules (surplus 2028/29, debt below 40%, spending towards 30% of GDP) are costed in its fiscal plan and credible this term, and compulsory KiwiSaver has cross-bloc support; but no new taxes and silence on Super leave 2050 debt near 96%, and it never says where a 30% spending ceiling would bite.", "relief_rationale": "No new taxes and a $4.0b surplus target in 2028/29 hold the line rather than relieve; compulsory KiwiSaver from July 2028 lowers take-home pay this term for later retirement. The $1,500 Baby Boost is an income payment scored in G01.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, National's Budget Responsibility Rules", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214251/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/responsibility-rules" }, { "title": "National, No New Taxes under National (23 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260823214037/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260823-no-new-taxes-under-national" }, { "title": "National, Enhancing KiwiSaver for Everyone", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214853/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/kiwisaver" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "No new taxes, fiscal rules to shrink spending and debt, and compulsory KiwiSaver.", "policies": [ "Surplus by 2028/29 ($4.0b); net debt below 40% of GDP; spending towards 30% of GDP", "No new taxes this term (bottom line); fuel excise rises in 5c steps from 2028", "Compulsory KiwiSaver from July 2028, 12% combined by 2032; $1,500 Baby Boost at birth", "All commitments inside Treasury's $24b of operating allowances" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, National's Budget Responsibility Rules", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214251/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/responsibility-rules", "date": "2026-08-09", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, No New Taxes under National (23 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260823214037/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260823-no-new-taxes-under-national", "date": "2026-08-23", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Enhancing KiwiSaver for Everyone", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214853/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/kiwisaver", "date": "2026-08-02", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Names the narrow tax base and taxes investment property gains (about $1.35b a year by 2030/31), with a Parliamentary Budget Office and a 20% net debt goal; its costings were reviewed only by its own commissioned firm, and the new revenue is spent, so 2050 debt stays near 96%. Greens and Te Pāti Māori back taxing capital.", "relief_rationale": "Keeps Super at 65 and the Budget 2026 surplus path; the main new policy, a 28% capital gains tax on investment property from 2027, adds tax for a small group rather than relieving most people. The small-firm asset write-off is scored in G03.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal Strategy (23 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824015034/https://www.labour.org.nz/fiscal-strategy" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" } ], "headline": "A capital gains tax on investment property, tighter debt goals, and an independent budget office.", "policies": [ "28% capital gains tax on investment and commercial property gains from 2027 (family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares exempt); about $1.35b a year by 2030/31", "Repeal Investment Boost; $10,000 write-off for small firms", "OBEGAL surplus ($2.0b in 2028/29 in the fiscal plan); net debt towards 20% of GDP; spending and revenue near 33% of GDP", "Parliamentary Budget Office; employer KiwiSaver compulsory at 6% by 2032" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal Strategy (23 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824015034/https://www.labour.org.nz/fiscal-strategy", "date": "2026-08-23", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will strengthen KiwiSaver for future generations (13 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260914024432/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-strengthen-kiwisaver-for-future-generations/", "date": "2026-09-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 3 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Diagnoses untaxed wealth with evidence (the richest 311 households at a 9% effective rate) and has its wealth, inheritance and company taxes modelled by the Parliamentary Library, naming who pays and how much; but it is silent on Super and ageing, a wealth tax has no delivery timetable, and uncosted pledges take 2050 debt to about 115%.", "relief_rationale": "Wealth, inheritance and top-company taxes fall on a few and have no delivery timetable; a 10-year residence test for Super narrows access. Nothing in this grouping lands for most households by 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" }, { "title": "Green Party, Public Services (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030514/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_public_services" } ], "headline": "Tax the very wealthy and largest firms; no 'arbitrary' fiscal limits; nothing on the Super age.", "policies": [ "2.5% annual tax on net wealth above $10m (about $3.8b to $4.1b a year)", "33% tax on inheritances and gifts above $1m (family homes and farms exempt)", "33% company tax for the largest 0.7% of firms; 0.06% bank levy; 10-year bright-line; no interest deductibility for landlords", "Reform public finance rules around resilience and wellbeing; restore a 10-year residence test for Super" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525", "date": "2026-06-21", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Public Services (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030514/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_public_services", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Overseas New Zealanders (manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030243/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_overseas_new_zealanders", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 3, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 3, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 3 }, "readiness_21": 17, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names ageing as the driver and uses one of Treasury's costed levers (Super age 67 by 2035, saving $4.1b over four years) inside a full fiscal plan, giving the lowest 2050 debt path (74%, or 85% with left-out costs) and naming who pays; but the Super change collides with an NZ First bottom line.", "relief_rationale": "Raising the Super age three months a year (to 67 by 2035) means those turning 65 this term wait longer, and ending the government KiwiSaver contribution hits low savers. Untaxed KiwiSaver earnings would help savers but has no start date.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" }, { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" } ], "headline": "Raise the Super age, cut spending and shrink government, then cut taxes.", "policies": [ "NZ Super age to 67 by 2035, three months a year (saves $4.1b over four years); suspend payments into the NZ Super Fund", "Operating allowance cut to $2b; back-office spending to 2017 levels; 19 departments and 18 ministers", "No tax on KiwiSaver earnings, paid for by ending the government KiwiSaver contribution", "Let landlords offset rental losses ($1.14b over four years); budget $13.2b better than forecast over four years" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "ACT, No tax on KiwiSaver earnings (PDF, 4 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261005015450/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38054/attachments/original/1790978996/No_tax_on_Kiwisaver_earnings_FINAL.pdf?1790978996", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, ACT unveils plan for radically simpler smaller government (28 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260817231541/https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-unveils-plan-for-radically-simpler-smaller-government", "date": "2026-06-28", "tier": 2 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 0, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 0 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 5, "rationale": "Keeps Super at 65 as a bottom line and limits it to citizens, adds a 20% small-firm tax rate (about $1b) and a BNZ buy-back funded partly by Crown debt, with no fiscal plan and a claim that growth covers the cost; 2050 debt reaches about 104% (119% with left-out costs).", "relief_rationale": "Keeping Super at 65 protects current settings rather than adding relief; a 20% tax rate for firms under $30m turnover (about $1b) helps small business but is undated, and citizens-only Super, phased over three years, removes it from some residents.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, NZ Super for Citizens Only (6 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260911012209/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_nz_super_for_citizens_only" }, { "title": "NZ First, Lowering Tax Rate for SMEs to 20%", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924022431/https://www.nzfirst.nz/20_tax_rate_for_smes" }, { "title": "NZ First, Backing a New Zealand Owned Bank", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014557/https://www.nzfirst.nz/backing_a_new_zealand_owned_bank" }, { "title": "NZ First, policy pages and speeches (2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy" } ], "headline": "No Super age rise, Super for citizens only, and state ownership funded partly by debt; no fiscal plan.", "policies": [ "No rise in the Super age (bottom line); Super for citizens only, phased in over three years", "KiwiSaver at birth with a $1,000 Crown deposit; contributions to 8% then 10%, compulsory", "20% company tax for firms under $30m turnover (about $1b initially)", "Buy back BNZ using ACC, banking bonds, Crown debt and KiwiSaver capital; up to $100b Future Fund" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, NZ Super for Citizens Only (6 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260911012209/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_nz_super_for_citizens_only", "date": "2026-09-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Establishing a KiwiSaver Generation", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014452/https://www.nzfirst.nz/establishing_a_kiwisaver_generation", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Lowering Tax Rate for SMEs to 20%", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924022431/https://www.nzfirst.nz/20_tax_rate_for_smes", "date": "2026-09-24", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Backing a New Zealand Owned Bank", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014557/https://www.nzfirst.nz/backing_a_new_zealand_owned_bank", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "A full tax package moves tax onto wealth over $2m, companies and land to pay for a $30,000 tax-free band, with costed revenue and thin headroom; it has no position on Super or ageing, and 2050 debt barely moves (95%, or 109% with left-out costs).", "relief_rationale": "Wealth, company, land banking and vacant house taxes and a 5% stamp duty on residential sales add costs for those affected, with no stated start dates; nothing on Super.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" } ], "headline": "Tax wealth, companies and land to pay for lower tax on low earners; nothing on Super.", "policies": [ "Wealth tax from 1.5% above $2m to 2.5% above $10m", "Company tax to 33%; 5% tax on profits sent offshore; $1b to fight tax avoidance", "33% land banking tax; 2% vacant house tax; 5% stamp duty on residential sales (first-home buyers under $1m exempt)", "Align tax and environmental policy" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 0, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 3 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Strongest diagnosis of the tax mix, moving tax from work to land with a modelled 10% to 15% fall in house prices and naming who pays; but the Tax Reset is $0.6b to $1.6b short before its health target, the Citizen's Income tops Super up to current rates (no saving), and 2050 debt runs to about 100% on its own figures and 138% with left-out costs.", "relief_rationale": "A land value tax (1.75% urban, 0.5% rural) adds a new annual cost for land owners, and compulsory KiwiSaver rising over eight years trims take-home pay; the Citizen's Income tops Super up to current rates, so retirees gain nothing new. No start dates are given.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260904014758/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy People", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042800/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/healthy_people" } ], "headline": "Reset the tax system around land, fold Super into a Citizen's Income, and borrow for infrastructure.", "policies": [ "Land value tax of 1.75% on urban land and 0.5% on rural land", "Citizen's Income replaces NZ Super, with a top-up to current Super rates", "Compulsory KiwiSaver rising to 6% plus 6% over eight years", "Up to $60b of infrastructure borrowing over ten years through an Infrastructure Fund, interest kept under 1% of GDP; health to 9% of GDP" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset", "date": "2026-08-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260904014758/https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf", "date": "2026-09-04", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy People", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042800/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/healthy_people", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G09.0", "title": "Super age 67", "statement": "NZ Super eligibility should rise from 65 to 67.", "why_it_matters": "Sets when everyone can draw Super, now about $23b a year and $76b by 2050.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "NZ Super, the state pension, is paid from 65 and costs about $23b a year. This would raise the age to 67, three months a year, by 2035.", "case_for": "Super heads for $76b a year by 2050; a later age keeps it affordable with fewer workers per retiree.", "case_against": "It hits people in physically hard jobs who cannot work longer, and those with little other income.", "the_tradeoff": "Lower long-term costs versus a later pension for everyone." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "silent", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "No Super age policy published", "labour": "Keep 65 said on 20 October; not scored", "greens": "Only a 10-year residence test policy", "act": "67 by 2035, three months a year", "nz-first": "Bottom line: no rise in the Super age", "te-pati-maori": "No Super age policy published", "opportunity": "Citizen's Income replaces Super, topped up to current rates" }, "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ Super for Citizens Only (6 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260911012209/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_campaign_announcement_nz_super_for_citizens_only" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" }, { "title": "1News, Chris v Chris: no mistake, no magic moment (21 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/21/chris-v-chris-no-mistake-no-magic-moment/" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G09.1", "title": "Tax on capital", "statement": "New Zealand should tax capital gains, wealth or land.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether wealth and property gains are taxed more like wages as the country ages.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "New Zealand has no general tax on capital gains, wealth or land. Options include taxing investment property gains, a wealth tax on the very rich, or a land value tax.", "case_for": "It taxes wealth more like wages, and could fund services or lower taxes on work.", "case_against": "New taxes add cost and complexity, and may push investment and wealthy people offshore.", "the_tradeoff": "A broader tax base for an ageing country versus the risk of less saving and investment." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "No new taxes is its bottom line", "labour": "28% on investment property gains from 2027", "greens": "Wealth tax above $10m; inheritance tax above $1m", "act": "No new taxes; cut spending instead", "nz-first": "Opposes capital, wealth and land taxes", "te-pati-maori": "Wealth tax, land banking tax, 5% stamp duty", "opportunity": "1.75% urban land value tax" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, No New Taxes under National (23 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260823214037/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260823-no-new-taxes-under-national" }, { "title": "Labour, Capital Gains Tax", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015413/https://www.labour.org.nz/capitalgainstax" }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2608/A_Kiwi_Tax_Plan.pdf" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G09.2", "title": "Compulsory KiwiSaver", "statement": "KiwiSaver contributions should be compulsory.", "why_it_matters": "Affects every worker's take-home pay now and the size of their retirement savings.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "KiwiSaver is a retirement savings scheme paid into by workers, employers and the government. New workers are enrolled automatically but can opt out. This would make contributions compulsory for all, rising to 12% combined in some proposals.", "case_for": "More saving builds bigger retirement funds and eases pressure on NZ Super.", "case_against": "Forced saving takes money from tight household budgets now, hitting low earners hardest.", "the_tradeoff": "Better-funded retirements versus less money in pay packets today." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "neutral", "greens": "silent", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "neutral", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Compulsory from 2028, 12% combined by 2032", "labour": "Employer share compulsory at 6%; employees can pause", "greens": "No KiwiSaver contribution policy published", "act": "Opposes compulsion; untax KiwiSaver earnings instead", "nz-first": "Compulsory, contributions to 8% then 10%", "te-pati-maori": "Opposes higher rates for low earners", "opportunity": "Compulsory 6% plus 6% over eight years" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Enhancing KiwiSaver for Everyone", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214853/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/kiwisaver" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will strengthen KiwiSaver for future generations (13 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260914024432/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-strengthen-kiwisaver-for-future-generations/" }, { "title": "ACT, No tax on KiwiSaver earnings (PDF, 4 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261005015450/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38054/attachments/original/1790978996/No_tax_on_Kiwisaver_earnings_FINAL.pdf?1790978996" }, { "title": "NZ First, Establishing a KiwiSaver Generation", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014452/https://www.nzfirst.nz/establishing_a_kiwisaver_generation" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G09.3", "title": "Keep Investment Boost", "statement": "The Investment Boost 20% upfront deduction for business assets should continue.", "why_it_matters": "A tax break for business investment, or revenue for other priorities.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Investment Boost lets a business deduct 20% of the cost of new assets, such as machinery, from taxable income straight away. Disagreeing repeals it; one proposal offers a $10,000 small-firm write-off instead.", "case_for": "It encourages firms to invest in machines and technology, which lifts output per worker and wages.", "case_against": "It costs revenue that could fund other priorities, and may reward investment firms would make anyway.", "the_tradeoff": "Faster business investment versus revenue for other uses." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "silent", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Keeps Investment Boost in its fiscal plan", "labour": "Repeal it; $10,000 write-off for small firms", "greens": "No stated position on Investment Boost", "act": "No stated position on Investment Boost", "nz-first": "Prefers a 20% small-firm company rate", "te-pati-maori": "No stated position on Investment Boost", "opportunity": "No stated position on Investment Boost" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Labour, Small Business Action Plan", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015958/https://www.labour.org.nz/small-business-action-plan" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G10", "name": "Transport, infrastructure and local government", "short": "Infrastructure", "voter_weight": 5, "weight_2050": 11, "problem_voters_feel": "Congestion, potholes, failing pipes and rates rises this term.", "stakes_now": { "text": "Congestion, potholes, ageing pipes and rising rates are what voters feel this term, and councils carry much of the bill with few tools beyond rates. New Zealand spends heavily on infrastructure but gets weak value for it.", "number_to_know": "New Zealand invested around 5.8% of GDP a year on infrastructure over the past 20 years, more than many high-income countries, yet achieves less.", "source": { "title": "Te Waihanga, National Infrastructure Plan: executive summary (February 2026)", "url": "https://tewaihanga.govt.nz/national-infrastructure-plan-online/executive-summary" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "Need grows as assets built in the 20th century wear out, so most future spending is renewal, not new build. Unless funding and planning hold across changes of government, deferred maintenance and capped rates push the cost onto later taxpayers and ratepayers.", "number_to_know": "Annual infrastructure investment need rises from about $20b now to slightly more than $30b a year by the 2050s (2023 dollars); renewals are up to 80% of need in some sectors.", "source": { "title": "Te Waihanga, Infrastructure needs analysis", "url": "https://tewaihanga.govt.nz/our-work/research-insights/infrastructure-needs-analysis" }, "pressures": [ "P4" ] }, "status_quo": "Te Waihanga's 30-year National Infrastructure Plan (February 2026) sits beside Roads of National Significance funded through the National Land Transport Fund, with the 2027 fuel excise rise cancelled and rises in 5c steps from 2028. A Rates Capping Bill (2% to 4% a year from 2029) has passed its first reading, and Local Water Done Well moves water into separate council entities.", "options": [ { "option": "Roads first, funded mainly through the land transport fund", "parties": [ "National", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Mass transit and rail, with cheaper fares", "parties": [ "Greens", "Labour", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Borrow more through a dedicated infrastructure fund", "parties": [ "Opportunity", "NZ First", "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Legislate the 30-year plan and prioritise maintenance", "parties": [ "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Cap council rates", "parties": [ "National" ] }, { "option": "Give councils new revenue tools (visitor, congestion and value-capture levies)", "parties": [ "Greens", "ACT", "Opportunity", "National" ] }, { "option": "Freeze fuel excise", "parties": [ "Labour" ] } ], "test_2050": "Opportunity's legislated 30-year plan, maintenance target and council funding tools build the 2050 position; ACT's lowest-cost and maintenance-first rules, National's cost benchmarking and asset plans, and Labour's Future Fund add smaller pieces. NZ First's unfunded $100b fund borrows from the future, and the rates cap without new tools, the fuel excise freeze and uncosted transit plans push renewal costs onto later ratepayers. Nobody sets out how the rising renewal bill for water, roads and public buildings is split between councils and the Crown to 2050.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P4", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Roads of National Significance, cost benchmarks and a 2% to 4% rates cap", "why": "Better cost discipline and new roads are offset by capping council revenue without new tools, which defers renewals.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, Keeping rates affordable (Rates Capping Bill)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/rates-capping" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P4", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Future Fund ($200m) and school and hospital repairs", "why": "Catches up some public building maintenance, but the fuel excise freeze reduces land transport revenue and councils get nothing.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P4", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Mass transit and regional rail, plus council revenue tools", "why": "Adds assets and council tools, but an uncosted transport plan leaves who pays unresolved.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Greens, Green Party launches the transport plan to combat fossil fuel crisis (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_launches_the_transport_plan_to_combat_fossil_fuel_crisis" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P4", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Roads-only land transport fund, lowest-cost options and maintenance first", "why": "Cheaper projects and protected maintenance help, but public transport costs shift to ratepayers.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, Keep New Zealand Moving (4 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/keep-new-zealand-moving" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P4", "effect": "borrows", "policy": "Up to $100b Future Fund with no stated funding", "why": "Large borrowing with no governance, project list or plan to service it shifts cost onto later taxpayers.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/the_100bn_new_zealand_future_fund" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P4", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Lower transport costs", "why": "Does not address the infrastructure deficit or who pays for it.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043207/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P4", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Legislated 30-year plan, $60b Infrastructure Fund and 60% maintenance target", "why": "Locks in a cross-term pipeline, funds renewals before new builds and gives councils user-pays tools, though it raises debt by up to 15% of GDP.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "A published 30-year plan and funded capital allowances give a named path, but the cancelled 2027 fuel excise rise leaves a land transport shortfall and the rates cap bill adds no new council tools, so costs move forward. Calibrated between the v1 infrastructure (13) and local government (8) scores.", "relief_rationale": "The planned 2027 fuel excise rise is cancelled, but 5c steps resume from 2028; the rates cap starts only from 2029 and the Roads of National Significance and water entities mostly deliver after 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Waihanga, National Infrastructure Plan: executive summary (February 2026)", "url": "https://tewaihanga.govt.nz/national-infrastructure-plan-online/executive-summary" }, { "title": "National, Government cancels fuel tax hike (31 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902234943/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260831-partynews" }, { "title": "National, Keeping rates affordable (Rates Capping Bill)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/rates-capping" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Named, dated road projects and cost benchmarking from a party in office, inside its fiscal plan, and it names motorists as payers through fuel excise from 2028. A rates cap with only a visitor levy share leaves council renewal costs unfunded, so Future effect is neutral.", "relief_rationale": "Rates rises capped at 2% to 4% only from 1 July 2029, months before the election; Mill Road and other motorways start construction by 2027 to 2028 but open later; about $385m of visitor levy to councils over four years is small.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Mill Road Stage One given the green light (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006021647/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261004-chrisbishop" }, { "title": "National, National's Economic Plan (PDF, 28 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" }, { "title": "National, Keeping rates affordable (Rates Capping Bill)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/rates-capping" }, { "title": "National, International Visitor Levy reset to keep taxes low (8 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260908051005/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260908-nicolawillis" }, { "title": "National, Government cancels fuel tax hike (31 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902234943/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260831-partynews" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Build more roads, cap rates and make councils and agencies cost projects better.", "policies": [ "$1.75b Mill Road (2028), $800m Christchurch Northern Motorway; start Cambridge to Piarere and the Northern Expressway by early 2027", "Cap rates rises at 2% to 4% a year from 1 July 2029, with an independent regulator", "Give councils about $385m of the International Visitor Levy over four years", "International cost benchmarks and legislated asset management plans; fuel excise up 5c steps from 2028" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, Mill Road Stage One given the green light (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006021647/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261004-chrisbishop", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Keeping rates affordable (Rates Capping Bill)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/rates-capping", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "National, International Visitor Levy reset to keep taxes low (8 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260908051005/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260908-nicolawillis", "date": "2026-09-08", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, National's Economic Plan (PDF, 28 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287", "date": "2026-09-28", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Government cancels fuel tax hike (31 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902234943/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260831-partynews", "date": "2026-08-31", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Names a construction backlog rather than the funding model; school, hospital and Future Fund money ($200m) is in its fiscal plan. Freezing fuel excise and using 1% of the land transport fund for fares draws on road funding, and it is silent on council finance.", "relief_rationale": "The three-year fuel excise freeze is a cost of living item already credited in G01 and lowers road maintenance funding; Labour is silent on rates and congestion, and the school and hospital repair funds sit outside this problem.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Labour, New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/futurefund" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will scrap National's fuel excise increase (27 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824025959/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-scrap-national-s-fuel-excise-increase/" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to get NZ building and Kiwis back to work (24 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-get-new-zealand-building-and-kiwis-back-to-work/" } ], "headline": "Fix schools and hospitals, start a Future Fund and freeze fuel tax.", "policies": [ "NZ Future Fund run by the Guardians of the Super Fund, $200m initial capital", "$400m for school improvements and $200m for hospital repairs", "Freeze fuel excise for three years, which it says is fully funded", "Restore Mana Whakahono ā Rohe iwi participation agreements in resource management" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "Labour, New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/futurefund", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will scrap National's fuel excise increase (27 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824025959/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-scrap-national-s-fuel-excise-increase/", "date": "2026-08-27", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will restore Mana Whakahono ā Rohe agreements (23 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260923033325/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-restore-mana-whakahono-a-rohe-agreements/", "date": "2026-09-23", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names car dependence and council underfunding, and follows the Infrastructure Commission's preferred transit options. The transport plan has no cost or funding source, so Funding is 0 and Future effect is neutral despite useful council revenue tools.", "relief_rationale": "Mass rapid transit and intercity rail land after 2029; up to 150 regional bus services and new council tools (bed levies, congestion charges, GST on rates) could help but have no start dates.", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Green Party launches the transport plan to combat fossil fuel crisis (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_launches_the_transport_plan_to_combat_fossil_fuel_crisis" }, { "title": "Greens, Fast, frequent, affordable public transport for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/connect_aotearoa" }, { "title": "Greens, Local Government (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025901/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_local_government" } ], "headline": "Build mass transit and regional rail, and free councils from a rates cap.", "policies": [ "Mass rapid transit in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch; fund Wellington rail renewals and Auckland level crossing removals", "Up to 150 new regional bus services; Te Huia to Tauranga; Christchurch to Dunedin passenger rail", "Reject the rates cap; let councils use bed levies, congestion charges and GST on rates", "Local elections run by the Electoral Commission, with STV and voting at 16" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Green Party launches the transport plan to combat fossil fuel crisis (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_launches_the_transport_plan_to_combat_fossil_fuel_crisis", "date": "2026-10-04", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Fast, frequent, affordable public transport for all of us", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/connect_aotearoa", "date": "2026-10-05", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Local Government (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025901/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_local_government", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Lowest-cost options, maintenance first and measurable corridor triggers are a plausible path, and its levies sit in its fiscal plan. A roads-only land transport fund pushes public transport costs onto rates, and the ring-fence lacks a stated partner.", "relief_rationale": "Protecting maintenance in a roads-only land transport fund, corridor capacity triggers and $1 per visitor night to councils are rules and small transfers with no start date; little lands on potholes or rates this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Keep New Zealand Moving (4 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/keep-new-zealand-moving" }, { "title": "ACT, Local Tourism Dividend", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818010600/https://www.act.org.nz/local_tourism_dividend" }, { "title": "ACT, A Fair Contribution", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025255/https://www.act.org.nz/fair-contribution" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" } ], "headline": "Protect road money, demand the cheapest safe option and fund growth corridors.", "policies": [ "Legislate that the land transport fund pays for roads only, with maintenance and renewals protected", "Major projects publish a lowest-cost safe option with cost, time and benefit-cost ratio", "Growth corridors get a funded capacity plan at 15,000 vehicles a day and extra lanes at 20,000", "$1 per international visitor night to councils; $6 a day surcharge on temporary work visas (ACT estimate $80m a year; not in its fiscal plan)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Keep New Zealand Moving (4 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/keep-new-zealand-moving", "date": "2026-09-04", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Local Tourism Dividend", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818010600/https://www.act.org.nz/local_tourism_dividend", "date": "2026-08-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, A Fair Contribution", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260810025255/https://www.act.org.nz/fair-contribution", "date": "2026-08-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 0, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 0 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 6, "rationale": "Names the infrastructure deficit, but the $100b Future Fund has no funding source, governance or projects, and NZ First has no fiscal plan. Borrowing on this scale without a plan shifts large costs forward.", "relief_rationale": "A 12-month commuter rail trial in Canterbury helps a small group; the $100b Future Fund has no projects or timetable.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/the_100bn_new_zealand_future_fund" }, { "title": "NZ First, Commuter Rail for Christchurch and Reinstate the Southerner Train (18 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/commuter_rail_for_christchurch_reinstate_the_southerner_train" }, { "title": "NZ First, policy pages", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy" } ], "headline": "Borrow up to $100b for infrastructure and bring back passenger rail in the south.", "policies": [ "Future Fund of up to $100b for a multi-decade infrastructure build (funding not stated)", "12-month commuter rail trial in Canterbury and a Christchurch to Dunedin service", "Fast-track housing must show infrastructure capacity and funding", "Disestablish Auckland's Independent Māori Statutory Board" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/the_100bn_new_zealand_future_fund", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Commuter Rail for Christchurch and Reinstate the Southerner Train (18 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/commuter_rail_for_christchurch_reinstate_the_southerner_train", "date": "2026-10-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals (14 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_policy_announcement_changes_to_fast_track_residential_approvals", "date": "2026-10-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Disestablish Auckland's Independent Māori Statutory Board", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/disestablish_auckland_s_independent_maori_statutory_board", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "A peripheral cost-of-living promise to cut transport costs, uncosted, with no position on infrastructure funding or councils. Scored on its merits, not silent.", "relief_rationale": "Free public transport 'now' for children, students and Community Services Card holders and half-price for others would cut fares for many, but no start date is given and it does not touch congestion, potholes or rates.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043207/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy and policy papers", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax" } ], "headline": "Cut transport costs as part of cost-of-living relief; no infrastructure or council finance plan.", "policies": [ "Free public transport now for children, students and Community Services Card holders, half-price for others, and free for everyone within five years (uncosted)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043207/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living", "date": "2026-06-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy and policy papers", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax", "date": "2026-08-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Cost of living policy (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/cost_of_living", "date": "2026-05-19" } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 3, "Mechanism": 3, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 3 }, "readiness_21": 16, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Diagnoses weak asset management with evidence (12 of 31 agencies without asset registers) and sets measurable targets (60% maintenance, progress reports at 100 days). Borrowing is costed (interest $2.5b to $3.5b a year) but not funded within its tax package; it names users, taxpayers and low-income households as payers.", "relief_rationale": "Legislating the 30-year plan, 60% of future spend on maintenance and $60b of borrowing build over a decade; council congestion charges and levies have no start date, so little lands by 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "headline": "Lock in the 30-year plan, borrow for long-lived assets and fix maintenance first.", "policies": [ "Legislate Te Waihanga's 30-year plan; projects over $250m need a bill to cancel", "Borrow up to $60b over ten years through a new Infrastructure Fund, interest under 1% of GDP", "60% of future infrastructure spending on maintenance and renewal; asset registers for all agencies", "Councils get congestion charges, value capture and accommodation levies; repeal the 30% cap on uniform charges; oppose rates caps" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf", "date": "2026-09-04", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset", "date": "2026-08-06", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G10.0", "title": "Borrow to build", "statement": "Government should borrow more to build infrastructure.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether today's or future taxpayers pay for roads, pipes and hospitals.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The Government now builds within set capital budgets, keeping net debt below 40% of GDP. Agreeing means borrowing more for roads, pipes and hospitals, such as $60b over ten years.", "case_for": "Assets that last decades can be paid for over decades, and delay makes the backlog dearer.", "case_against": "More debt means higher interest bills and less room to respond to future shocks.", "the_tradeoff": "Today's or tomorrow's taxpayers paying, as yearly needs pass $30b by the 2050s." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Within capital allowances; debt below 40% of GDP", "labour": "Within allowances; about $8b capital unallocated", "greens": "No 'arbitrary' debt limits", "act": "Lower debt than Treasury forecast", "nz-first": "Future Fund of up to $100b", "te-pati-maori": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "opportunity": "$60b over ten years; interest under 1% of GDP" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "Greens, A tax system for all of us", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824002908/https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" }, { "title": "NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/the_100bn_new_zealand_future_fund" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G10.1", "title": "New council revenue", "statement": "Councils should get new ways to raise money beyond rates.", "why_it_matters": "Councils pay for growth and renewal mostly from rates today.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Councils pay for growth and repairs mostly from rates. This would give them new tools: visitor levies, congestion charges and value capture (charging landowners who gain from new infrastructure).", "case_for": "People who use or gain from new roads and pipes would pay, rather than all ratepayers.", "case_against": "New levies add costs for visitors, drivers and firms, and ease pressure on councils to spend well.", "the_tradeoff": "More council funding versus new charges on households, tourists and business." }, "positions": { "national": "neutral", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "Share of visitor levy; development levies, no new taxes", "labour": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "greens": "Bed levies, congestion charges, GST on rates", "act": "$1 per international visitor night", "nz-first": "Half of mining royalties kept in regions", "te-pati-maori": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "opportunity": "Congestion charges, value capture, accommodation levies" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, International Visitor Levy reset to keep taxes low (8 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260908051005/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260908-nicolawillis" }, { "title": "Greens, Local Government (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025901/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_local_government" }, { "title": "ACT, Local Tourism Dividend", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818010600/https://www.act.org.nz/local_tourism_dividend" }, { "title": "NZ First, policy pages", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G10.2", "title": "Rates cap", "statement": "Council rates rises should be capped at 2% to 4% a year from 2029.", "why_it_matters": "Caps every household's rates bill, but limits what councils spend on pipes and roads.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Councils now set their own rates rises. A bill before Parliament would cap rises at 2% to 4% a year from 2029.", "case_for": "It protects households from fast-rising rates bills and pushes councils to control spending.", "case_against": "It could leave councils short for pipe and road renewals, pushing costs onto future ratepayers.", "the_tradeoff": "Lower bills now versus deferred repairs that grow dearer by 2050." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "disagree" }, "notes": { "national": "Rates Capping Bill, in force from 2029", "labour": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "greens": "Reject the cap; councils set their own rates", "act": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "nz-first": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "te-pati-maori": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "opportunity": "Calls rates caps 'a blunt instrument'" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Keeping rates affordable (Rates Capping Bill)", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/rates-capping" }, { "title": "Greens, Local Government (2026 manifesto)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025901/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_local_government" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G10.3", "title": "Fuel excise rises", "statement": "Fuel excise should continue to rise from 2028 to fund roads.", "why_it_matters": "Fuel tax is the main source of the land transport fund.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Fuel excise is the tax in every litre of petrol and the main source of the land transport fund. The 2027 rise was cancelled; it now rises in 5c steps from 2028. Disagreeing means a freeze.", "case_for": "Roads need steady funding, and those who drive most pay most.", "case_against": "Higher fuel prices hurt household budgets, especially for people with no other way to travel.", "the_tradeoff": "Reliable road funding versus lower costs at the pump." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "silent", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "5c steps every six months from 2028", "labour": "Freeze fuel excise for three years", "greens": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "act": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "nz-first": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "te-pati-maori": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "opportunity": "Nothing on record by 19 October." }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, Government cancels fuel tax hike (31 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902234943/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260831-partynews" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will scrap National's fuel excise increase (27 August 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824025959/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-scrap-national-s-fuel-excise-increase/" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G10.4", "title": "Roads-only transport fund", "statement": "The National Land Transport Fund should pay for roads only.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether fuel tax and road charges also fund buses, trains and cycling.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The National Land Transport Fund is filled mainly by fuel tax and road user charges. It now also pays for public transport and cycling; this would limit it by law to roads only.", "case_for": "Drivers pay into the fund, so their money should go to the roads they use.", "case_against": "Buses and trains ease congestion for drivers too, and would need funding from elsewhere.", "the_tradeoff": "Protected road funding versus money for public transport." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "silent", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "disagree" }, "notes": { "national": "Queenstown gondola to access fund as public transport", "labour": "Fare cap funded from 1% of the fund", "greens": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "act": "Legislate road-related spending only", "nz-first": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "te-pati-maori": "Nothing on record by 19 October.", "opportunity": "$3b through the fund for rail and public transport" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, National's Economic Plan (PDF, 28 September 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" }, { "title": "ACT, Keep New Zealand Moving (4 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/keep-new-zealand-moving" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G11", "name": "Te Tiriti, Māori and the constitution", "short": "Te Tiriti", "voter_weight": 7, "weight_2050": 4, "problem_voters_feel": "Uncertainty and conflict over the Treaty's legal force, Māori rights and representation, and whether elections are fair and easy to take part in.", "stakes_now": { "text": "The Treaty's place in law, the future of the Waitangi Tribunal and Māori electoral representation are live questions this election, after a term of Treaty clause removals and a defeated Treaty Principles Bill. Voters also face proposals on how elections are run: enrolment, donations, costing of promises and the term of Parliament.", "number_to_know": "The Treaty Principles Bill was defeated 112 votes to 11 at its second reading on 10 April 2025.", "source": { "title": "1News, Treaty Principles Bill voted down amid fiery MP debate (10 Apr 2025)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/04/10/treaty-principles-bill-voted-down-amid-fiery-mp-debate" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "Māori are a growing share of the population, and of the working-age population, so how the Crown and Māori share decisions over land, water, services and capital will shape growth and public services to 2050. Constitutional changes made by a bare majority tend to be reversed, so the durable answers are the ones that win broad support.", "number_to_know": "Māori projected to be about 21% of New Zealand's population by 2043, up from about 17% in 2018 (Stats NZ).", "source": { "title": "Stats NZ via Scoop, Māori population share projected to grow in all regions (2022)", "url": "https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2203/S00600.htm" }, "pressures": [ "P1", "P2" ] }, "status_quo": "Waitangi Tribunal findings are mostly non-binding and historical settlements continue. The Treaty Principles Bill was defeated in 2025, the Regulatory Standards Act is in force, Treaty clauses have been removed from some laws, and same-day enrolment has ended. MMP with a 5% threshold and a three-year term.", "options": [ { "option": "Make Waitangi Tribunal recommendations binding and entrench Te Tiriti", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Finish historical settlements, then wind up or replace the Waitangi Tribunal", "parties": [ "ACT", "NZ First" ] }, { "option": "Restore Māori participation in resource management and Māori economic programmes", "parties": [ "Labour" ] }, { "option": "National constitutional conversation", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Independent costing of party promises", "parties": [ "National", "Labour", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Cap political donations and register lobbyists", "parties": [ "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Restrict voting to citizens; referendum on the Māori seats", "parties": [ "NZ First" ] } ], "test_2050": "Labour, the Greens, ACT and Opportunity build modestly: through a Parliamentary Budget Office, a capital fund for marae, a funded ministry saving, or deliberative institutions that make reforms stick. National, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori are neutral on the long-run position, and every Te Tiriti proposal from either side depends on a bare coalition majority, which is the pattern that produces reversals. Nobody sets out how a lasting, cross-bloc settlement of the Tribunal's and Te Tiriti's role would be reached, or costs the land and compensation effects of their Tribunal plans.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Election policy costings unit", "why": "A small, election-only costing unit adds little lasting fiscal discipline.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF, 12 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269" } }, { "party": "National", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "No Māori economic or Treaty settings policy", "why": "Nothing here changes Māori capital, skills or land use.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National, policy index", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Parliamentary Budget Office", "why": "Independent costing of every party's promises makes fiscal trade-offs visible beyond one term.", "durable": "yes", "source": { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Kiwis and grow the economy (23 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824014918/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-kiwis-and-grow-the-economy/" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Māori procurement and trades training", "why": "Directs contracts and training to a young, growing share of the workforce.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Māori business and grow the Māori economy (15 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016020733/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-maori-businesses-and-grow-the-maori-economy/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Te Rangatiratanga Trust and binding Tribunal", "why": "The $2.44b trust is funded from new tax, but binding Tribunal land returns are uncosted, so the fiscal effect is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Greens, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_te_tiriti_o_waitangi" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "$2b intergenerational marae fund", "why": "Builds a lasting capital base for marae run by hapū and iwi.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Greens, Te Waonui a Tāne: Thriving Marae for Thriving Communities (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260827034912/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/81707/attachments/original/1786238613/TWT_policy_2026_ONLINE.pdf?1786238613" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Abolish demographic ministries", "why": "Saves $187m a year in its fiscal plan.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF, 11 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Wind up the Tribunal's contemporary role", "why": "ACT argues it would make property rights and consenting more certain; the effect on investment is not quantified.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, Finish the settlements, wind up the Waitangi Tribunal (10 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/finish-the-settlements-wind-up-the-waitangi-tribunal" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Replace the Tribunal with a Completion Commission", "why": "No costs or savings stated.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Campaign on Ending the Waitangi Make-Work Industry (26 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/ending_the_waitangi_make_work_industry" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Māori land reform through the Ministry of Māori Development", "why": "Speeding Māori land development is a stated aim, with no measures or numbers.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Campaign on Ending the Waitangi Make-Work Industry (26 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/ending_the_waitangi_make_work_industry" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Te Tiriti Commission and binding Tribunal", "why": "New institutions and binding remedies with no stated funding source.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF, 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Funds for Māori enterprise", "why": "Funds are proposed but unsized, so the effect on Māori capital is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Economic development", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043029/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/economic_development" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Costing unit and anti-corruption body", "why": "Independent costing and integrity checks make long-term trade-offs harder to hide.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Clean Up Politics", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043010/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/clean_up_politics" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P2", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Capital access for Māori asset owners", "why": "Better access to capital for Māori land and asset owners, with accountability for results.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Opportunity, Honouring Te Tiriti", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/honouring_te_tiriti" } } ], "since_19_oct": [ { "party": "National and Labour", "item": "Both leaders back a referendum on a four-year parliamentary term (final leaders' debate, 20 October).", "source": { "title": "1News, Chris v Chris: no mistake, no magic moment (21 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/21/chris-v-chris-no-mistake-no-magic-moment/" } } ], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Settlements continue and are Budget-funded with a long delivery record, but current settings set no direction on the Tribunal's or Te Tiriti's future. Recent changes (Regulatory Standards Act, Treaty clause removals, ending same-day enrolment) were passed on coalition votes and Labour and the Greens pledge to reverse parts of them, so Durability is 1.", "relief_rationale": "Historical settlements keep being concluded for individual iwi, but current settings (Regulatory Standards Act, Treaty clause removals, end of same-day enrolment) settle none of the live questions and make enrolment harder at the 2029 election.", "sources": [ { "title": "1News, Treaty Principles Bill voted down amid fiery MP debate (10 Apr 2025)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/04/10/treaty-principles-bill-voted-down-amid-fiery-mp-debate" }, { "title": "Labour, National is making it harder to vote (24 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-is-making-it-harder-to-vote/" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 5, "rationale": "Not silent, but National has no general Treaty settings policy: its offer here is fisheries Treaty obligations, a small funded costing unit and a leader's undeclared MMP referendum idea (tier 3; colleagues called it 'musings'). Weighted to the core question, the offer is minimal.", "relief_rationale": "No Treaty settings policy; the in-term items are narrow: a $1.2m costing unit and fisheries Treaty obligations, with the water strategy due in 2027 and the MMP referendum not formal policy.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, policy index", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies" }, { "title": "National, National's plan for healthy fisheries (10 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233946/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261010-toddmcclay" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF, 12 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269" }, { "title": "The Spinoff, To MMP or not to MMP, that is Christopher Luxon's question (7 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/07-08-2026/to-mmp-or-not-to-mmp-that-is-christopher-luxons-question" } ], "headline": "No general Treaty settings policy; upholds fisheries settlement obligations; costing unit funded; leader open to an MMP referendum.", "policies": [ "Uphold Crown fisheries obligations under Te Tiriti while lifting EEZ protection to 50% by 2040", "Election policy costings unit ($1.2m, in fiscal plan)", "Leader said he would hold an MMP referendum if re-elected; not formal policy", "National Rural and Provincial Water Use Strategy with iwi, councils and farmers in 2027" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, National's plan for healthy fisheries (10 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261011233946/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261010-toddmcclay", "date": "2026-10-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF, 12 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "The Spinoff, To MMP or not to MMP, that is Christopher Luxon's question (7 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/07-08-2026/to-mmp-or-not-to-mmp-that-is-christopher-luxons-question", "date": "2026-08-07", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "National, Securing water and fertiliser to back NZ farmers (9 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261009042837/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261009-toddmcclay-1", "date": "2026-10-09", "tier": 2 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 2, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 11, "rationale": "Names drivers (Māori left out of resource decisions; Māori unemployment near 11%) and relies on mechanisms it has run before (Progressive Procurement, Mana Whakahono). Items sit in a full fiscal plan, Labour-commissioned review treated as 2; the PBO is a lasting fiscal institution. Silent on the Tribunal and Te Tiriti's legal status, and names no trade-offs.", "relief_rationale": "Concrete in-term items for meaningful groups: 5% of procurement to Māori businesses (about $900m of contracts), Māori trades training at $21m a year for up to 3,000 people, restored Mana Whakahono agreements and same-day enrolment back before the 2029 election (about 110,000 voters). Silent on the Tribunal.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Labour will restore Mana Whakahono ā Rohe agreements (23 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260923033325/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-restore-mana-whakahono-a-rohe-agreements/" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Māori business and grow the Māori economy (15 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016020733/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-maori-businesses-and-grow-the-maori-economy/" }, { "title": "Labour, Backing Māori into Skilled Work (29 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260831215040/https://www.labour.org.nz/maori-trades-training" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Kiwis and grow the economy (23 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824014918/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-kiwis-and-grow-the-economy/" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan (4 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" } ], "headline": "Restores iwi participation and Māori economic programmes, adds a Parliamentary Budget Office; no position on the Tribunal.", "policies": [ "Restore Mana Whakahono ā Rohe iwi participation agreements in resource management law", "5% of government procurement to Māori businesses (about $900m of contracts)", "Māori-led trades training fund, $21m a year, up to 3,000 people", "Parliamentary Budget Office; restore same-day enrolment" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Labour will restore Mana Whakahono ā Rohe agreements (23 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260923033325/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-restore-mana-whakahono-a-rohe-agreements/", "date": "2026-09-23", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Māori business and grow the Māori economy (15 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016020733/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-maori-businesses-and-grow-the-maori-economy/", "date": "2026-10-15", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Backing Māori into Skilled Work (29 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260831215040/https://www.labour.org.nz/maori-trades-training", "date": "2026-08-29", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Kiwis and grow the economy (23 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824014918/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-kiwis-and-grow-the-economy/", "date": "2026-08-23", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour, National is making it harder to vote (24 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-is-making-it-harder-to-vote/", "date": "2026-07-24", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Names a driver (Treaty references removed from 19 Acts; iwi treated as advisors) with a clear legal path through the Treaty of Waitangi Act. The marae trust and te reo funding are costed in its tax package, but the binding Tribunal and land returns are uncosted and have no timeline, and effects on private landowners are not addressed. Te Pāti Māori backs the same core measures.", "relief_rationale": "The main policies (Te Tiriti as the authoritative text, binding Tribunal recommendations, voting age 16, entrenched Māori seats) have no timeline; the four-year marae and te reo funds are booked in the tax package but do not settle the live Treaty and representation questions.", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_te_tiriti_o_waitangi" }, { "title": "Greens, Te Waonui a Tāne: Thriving Marae for Thriving Communities (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260827034912/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/81707/attachments/original/1786238613/TWT_policy_2026_ONLINE.pdf?1786238613" }, { "title": "Greens, Ake, Ake, Ake: Green Party commits $200m to the future of te reo Māori (14 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260914025043/https://www.greens.org.nz/ake_ake_ake_green_party_commits_200m_to_the_future_of_te_reo_maori" }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (21 Jun 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_system_for_all" }, { "title": "Greens, Greens announce plans to get big money and influence out of politics (22 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260922021224/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_announce_plan_to_get_big_money_and_influence_out_of_politics" } ], "headline": "Te Tiriti as the authoritative text, a binding Tribunal, a funded marae trust and democracy integrity reforms.", "policies": [ "Amend the Treaty of Waitangi Act so Te Tiriti is the authoritative text; binding Tribunal recommendations on Crown and private land", "Te Rangatiratanga Trust for marae: $2.44b (costed in tax package)", "$200m over four years for te reo Māori", "$30,000 donation cap, lobbyist register, voting age 16, entrench the Māori seats" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_te_tiriti_o_waitangi", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Te Waonui a Tāne: Thriving Marae for Thriving Communities (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260827034912/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/81707/attachments/original/1786238613/TWT_policy_2026_ONLINE.pdf?1786238613", "date": "2026-08-27", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Ake, Ake, Ake: Green Party commits $200m to the future of te reo Māori (14 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260914025043/https://www.greens.org.nz/ake_ake_ake_green_party_commits_200m_to_the_future_of_te_reo_maori", "date": "2026-09-14", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens, Greens announce plans to get big money and influence out of politics (22 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260922021224/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_announce_plan_to_get_big_money_and_influence_out_of_politics", "date": "2026-09-22", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Ao Māori News, Green Party announces member's bill to entrench Māori electorate seats (24 Jan 2026)", "url": "https://www.teaonews.co.nz/2026/01/25/green-party-announces-member-bill-to-entrench-maori-electorate-seats-in-law/", "date": "2026-01-24", "tier": 1 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Names the driver it sees (Tribunal and courts reaching into current policy) and a precise vehicle (Treaty of Waitangi Act amendment with a 2008 claim cut-off; Constitution Act principles). The $187m demographic ministries saving is in its fiscal plan; NZ First backs winding up the Tribunal. It acknowledges the Tribunal's role in historical redress and refuses an arbitrary deadline.", "relief_rationale": "Constitution Act principles and the Treaty Act amendment could pass this term, but the Tribunal winds up only once pre-2008 claims are settled, so the main effect lands after 2029.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Finish the settlements, wind up the Waitangi Tribunal (10 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/finish-the-settlements-wind-up-the-waitangi-tribunal" }, { "title": "ACT, One Law for All Policy (PDF, 23 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824030726/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/36437/attachments/original/1787277161/One_Law_for_All_policy_06.pdf?1787277161" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF, 11 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" } ], "headline": "Finish historical settlements, then wind up the Tribunal; write equality before the law into the Constitution Act.", "policies": [ "Tribunal disestablished automatically once claims lodged by 1 September 2008 are settled; no contemporary jurisdiction", "Add three principles to the Constitution Act; property rights in the Bill of Rights", "Courts to use tikanga only where relevant or provided by Parliament", "Abolish demographic ministries (saves $187m a year, in fiscal plan)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Finish the settlements, wind up the Waitangi Tribunal (10 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/finish-the-settlements-wind-up-the-waitangi-tribunal", "date": "2026-09-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, One Law for All Policy (PDF, 23 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824030726/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/36437/attachments/original/1787277161/One_Law_for_All_policy_06.pdf?1787277161", "date": "2026-08-23", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF, 11 Oct 2026)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Asserts the Tribunal is a 'make-work industry' without data, but sets a clear mechanism (Completion Commission, legislation in 100 days; referendum at the next election). No fiscal plan; only the board's $3.5m cost and a zero-cost referendum claim are stated. ACT backs winding up the Tribunal.", "relief_rationale": "Completion Commission legislated within 100 days, but claims completion builds slowly; the Māori seats referendum is held at the next general election (2029), so its effect falls after the term.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Campaign on Ending the Waitangi Make-Work Industry (26 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/ending_the_waitangi_make_work_industry" }, { "title": "NZ First, Referendum on Māori Seats", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014751/https://www.nzfirst.nz/referendum_on_maori_seats" }, { "title": "NZ First, Citizen's Only Voting", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/citizens_only_voting" }, { "title": "NZ First, Disestablish Auckland's 'Independent Maori Statutory Board'", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014648/https://www.nzfirst.nz/disestablish_auckland_s_independent_maori_statutory_board" } ], "headline": "Abolish the Waitangi Tribunal for a Completion Commission; citizens-only voting; referendum on the Māori seats.", "policies": [ "Replace the Tribunal with a Treaty of Waitangi Completion Commission for pre-2008 claims, legislated within 100 days", "Binding referendum on the Māori seats at the next general election", "Only citizens to vote, in all elections and referendums", "Disestablish Auckland's Independent Māori Statutory Board" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Campaign on Ending the Waitangi Make-Work Industry (26 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/ending_the_waitangi_make_work_industry", "date": "2026-09-26", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Referendum on Māori Seats", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014751/https://www.nzfirst.nz/referendum_on_maori_seats", "date": "", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Citizen's Only Voting", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/citizens_only_voting", "date": "", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, Disestablish Auckland's 'Independent Maori Statutory Board'", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014648/https://www.nzfirst.nz/disestablish_auckland_s_independent_maori_statutory_board", "date": "", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Names the driver (Crown obligations unenforceable, so breaches carry no consequence) and sets out a detailed legal design: Te Tiriti Commission, compliance orders reviewable in the High Court, Treaty of Waitangi Act amendment, UNDRIP plan in 100 days. The $220m fund is costed but its funding source is not stated. It names the shift in burden onto the Crown but not the cost.", "relief_rationale": "Mostly structural: Te Tiriti statute, a Te Tiriti Commission and binding Tribunal recommendations with no start date; the UNDRIP action plan in 100 days is a plan, and constitutional change is targeted for 2040.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF, 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Pāti Māori will make the Waitangi Tribunal recommendations binding (6 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811032410/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2608/S00044/te-pati-maori-will-make-the-waitangi-tribunal-recommendations-binding.htm" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy (Aug 2026)", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/tax" } ], "headline": "Entrench Te Tiriti obligations, with a Te Tiriti Commission and binding Tribunal recommendations.", "policies": [ "Statute binding the Crown to Te Tiriti, with a Te Tiriti Commission able to issue compliance orders", "Binding Waitangi Tribunal recommendations", "Entrench the Māori electorates", "$220m Mātike Mai Fund over four years; constitutional change by 2040", "UNDRIP national action plan within 100 days" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF, 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf", "date": "2026-09-09", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Pāti Māori will make the Waitangi Tribunal recommendations binding (6 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811032410/https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2608/S00044/te-pati-maori-will-make-the-waitangi-tribunal-recommendations-binding.htm", "date": "2026-08-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Mana Motuhake policy (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/mana_motuhake", "date": "2026-05-19" } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 10, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Diagnoses short-termism and low trust driving policy reversals and proposes deliberative fixes (citizens' assemblies, anti-corruption body, costing unit) with costs stated (about $52m a year); not shown in its tax package costings. Its Te Tiriti offer (honour settlements, constitutional conversation) has no vehicle or timeline. Greens share the donation cap.", "relief_rationale": "A national constitutional conversation and citizens' assemblies are process, not relief; restoring pre-2025 customary marine title settings and the integrity package help narrow groups, with no start dates.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Honouring Te Tiriti", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/honouring_te_tiriti" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Clean Up Politics", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043010/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/clean_up_politics" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Citizens Voice Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/citizens-voice-policy.pdf" } ], "headline": "Honour settlements, a deliberative constitutional conversation, and a costed political integrity package.", "policies": [ "Honour and complete settlements; restore pre-2025 customary marine title settings", "National conversation on Te Tiriti's constitutional place, with Māori as Treaty partner", "Citizens' assemblies ($10m to $15m a year)", "Anti-corruption body, costing unit, lobbyist register and $30,000 donation cap (package about $52m a year)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Honouring Te Tiriti", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/honouring_te_tiriti", "date": "2026-08-11", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Citizens Voice Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/citizens-voice-policy.pdf", "date": "", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity, Clean Up Politics", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043010/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/clean_up_politics", "date": "2026-08-19", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G11.0", "title": "Binding Tribunal", "statement": "Waitangi Tribunal recommendations should be binding on the Crown.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether Treaty claim findings are advice or obligations the Government must carry out.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The Waitangi Tribunal hears claims that the Crown has broken Te Tiriti o Waitangi (the Treaty of Waitangi). Its findings are mostly advice now; this would make the Government legally bound to act on them.", "case_for": "It would give Treaty promises real force, so findings lead to action rather than being set aside.", "case_against": "It would shift major decisions, including over land, from elected Parliament to an unelected body.", "the_tradeoff": "Stronger Treaty protections versus Parliament's final say." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "No general Treaty settings policy", "labour": "No Tribunal policy; restores Mana Whakahono agreements", "greens": "Binding recommendations, including on Crown and private land", "act": "Finish settlements, then wind up the Tribunal", "nz-first": "Abolish the Tribunal for a Completion Commission", "te-pati-maori": "Binding by law, with implementation timeframes", "opportunity": "Honour settlements; Tribunal powers not addressed" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_te_tiriti_o_waitangi" }, { "title": "ACT, Finish the settlements, wind up the Waitangi Tribunal (10 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/finish-the-settlements-wind-up-the-waitangi-tribunal" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Campaign on Ending the Waitangi Make-Work Industry (26 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/ending_the_waitangi_make_work_industry" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF, 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Honouring Te Tiriti", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/honouring_te_tiriti" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G11.1", "title": "Tribunal's current role", "statement": "The Waitangi Tribunal should continue to hear claims about current government policy.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether the Tribunal has a role after historical settlements end.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The Tribunal now hears both historical claims and claims about current government policy. Disagreeing would limit it to claims lodged by 2008 and wind it up once those are settled.", "case_for": "Māori could still challenge new laws and policies that may breach Te Tiriti.", "case_against": "Ending it after historical settlements gives finality and leaves current policy to Parliament and courts.", "the_tradeoff": "An ongoing Treaty check on government versus a clear end to the claims process." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "agree", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No Tribunal policy in its 2026 documents", "labour": "No Tribunal policy in its 2026 documents", "greens": "More resourcing for the Tribunal, with binding powers", "act": "End jurisdiction over current Crown policy", "nz-first": "Commission limited to claims lodged before 2008", "te-pati-maori": "Tribunal to give binding remedies for breaches", "opportunity": "Tribunal not mentioned in its Te Tiriti policy" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_te_tiriti_o_waitangi" }, { "title": "ACT, Finish the settlements, wind up the Waitangi Tribunal (10 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/finish-the-settlements-wind-up-the-waitangi-tribunal" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZFirst to Campaign on Ending the Waitangi Make-Work Industry (26 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/ending_the_waitangi_make_work_industry" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF, 2026)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G11.2", "title": "Donation cap", "statement": "Political donations should be capped at $30,000 per donor.", "why_it_matters": "Limits how much any one donor can give a party.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "There is no cap on donations now, only disclosure rules. This would limit what any one donor gives a party to $30,000; some proposals also ban company donations.", "case_for": "It reduces the risk that a few wealthy donors can buy influence over policy.", "case_against": "It limits how people back parties they believe in, and money may shift to less visible channels.", "the_tradeoff": "Less donor influence versus the freedom to give and fund campaigns." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "agree" }, "notes": { "national": "No donations policy in its 2026 documents", "labour": "No donations policy in its 2026 documents", "greens": "$30,000 cap; no company donations", "act": "No donations policy in its 2026 documents", "nz-first": "No donations policy on its policy pages", "te-pati-maori": "No donations policy in its documents", "opportunity": "$30,000 cap; only registered voters may donate" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Greens announce plans to get big money and influence out of politics (22 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260922021224/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_announce_plan_to_get_big_money_and_influence_out_of_politics" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Clean Up Politics", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043010/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/clean_up_politics" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G11.3", "title": "Same-day enrolment", "statement": "Voters should again be able to enrol on election day.", "why_it_matters": "Affects who can vote; about 110,000 enrolled on election day last time, one estimate says.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Enrolling to vote on election day was ended this term, so people must now enrol beforehand. This would bring it back; one estimate is that about 110,000 people used it last election.", "case_for": "More eligible people get to vote, especially young people and those who move often.", "case_against": "Earlier enrolment allows more time to check eligibility and makes counting faster.", "the_tradeoff": "Easier voting versus earlier checks on the roll." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No enrolment policy in its 2026 documents", "labour": "Restore same-day enrolment", "greens": "Restore enrolment up to election day", "act": "No enrolment policy in its 2026 documents", "nz-first": "No enrolment policy on its policy pages", "te-pati-maori": "No enrolment policy in its documents", "opportunity": "No enrolment policy in its documents" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, National is making it harder to vote (24 Jul 2026)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-is-making-it-harder-to-vote/" }, { "title": "Greens, Democracy (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023729/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_democracy" } ], "in_quiz": true } ] }, { "code": "G12", "name": "Defence, foreign affairs and trade", "short": "Defence and trade", "voter_weight": 2, "weight_2050": 11, "problem_voters_feel": "Exposure to rising tariffs and an unstable world: export earnings and jobs at risk, and pressure to spend more on defence.", "stakes_now": { "text": "The United States is pressing allies to spend more on defence and tariffs are rising, so a small trading economy is exposed on both fronts. The current plan lifts defence to 2% of GDP by 2032, and exports are now about $114b a year.", "number_to_know": "Defence spending to reach 2% of GDP by 2032 under the Defence Capability Plan, which adds $9b of new funding over four years.", "source": { "title": "Ministry of Defence, Defence Capability Plan released", "url": "https://defence.govt.nz/news/defence-capability-plan-released" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "Larger neighbours are spending more: Australia aims for 3% of GDP on a NATO-style measure (about 2.3% on its usual budget measure), and the US says 2% is 'not enough', so the 2% plan may not be the ceiling. To 2050 the questions are which alliances New Zealand keeps, how much of the Pacific's security and climate costs it carries, and how widely it spreads its export markets.", "number_to_know": "The US says 2% of GDP on defence is 'not enough'; Australia aims for 3% by 2033 on a NATO-style measure, about 2.3% on its usual budget measure.", "source": { "title": "1News, US 'freeloading' claim puts heat on NZ's independent foreign policy", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/06/05/us-freeloading-claim-puts-heat-on-nzs-independent-foreign-policy/" }, "pressures": [ "P5" ] }, "status_quo": "The Defence Capability Plan lifts defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2032. New Zealand stays in Five Eyes but is not in AUKUS Pillar II. It pursues new free trade agreements and focuses its aid on the Pacific.", "options": [ { "option": "Diversify export markets with new trade deals and a doubling target", "parties": [ "National", "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Cut foreign aid to fund domestic priorities", "parties": [ "National", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Raise aid towards 0.7% of GDP and restore Pacific climate finance", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Recognise Palestine and sanction Israel", "parties": [ "Labour", "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Leave Five Eyes, stay out of AUKUS, or declare military neutrality", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Trade protection for local industry", "parties": [ "NZ First" ] } ], "test_2050": "Only current settings (the funded 2% defence path) and National's trade diversification build toward a riskier world, and neither says whether 2% is enough if allies move to 3%. Labour's aid ambition and the Greens' and Te Pāti Māori's moves away from current alliances are unfunded or have no delivery path, while ACT's and National's aid cuts save money now at some cost to Pacific influence. No party states a defence spending figure for after 2032, prices an AUKUS Pillar II decision, or plans for a long US tariff shock.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P5", "effect": "builds", "policy": "Double exports by 2034 through 13 new trade deals", "why": "More markets reduce exposure to any one partner's tariffs or sanctions.", "durable": "yes", "source": { "title": "National, New Zealand's Next Billion Customers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213604/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/new-trade" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P5", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Aid to 0.7% of GDP; new markets; Pacific climate agreement", "why": "Builds Pacific ties in intent, but with no cost, date or defence position the net effect is unclear.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P5", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Leave Five Eyes; Pacific climate finance", "why": "More Pacific climate finance helps resilience, but leaving Five Eyes cuts intelligence access, so the net effect is unclear.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Green Party, Global Affairs and Trade", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025316/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_global_affairs_and_trade" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P5", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Aid back to 2017 levels; protect defence from cuts", "why": "Saves $283m a year while holding defence, at some cost to soft power outside the Pacific.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "ACT, New Zealand can't keep exporting taxpayers' money", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012004027/https://www.act.org.nz/news/new-zealand-can-t-keep-exporting-taxpayers-money" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P5", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Trade protection for aluminium", "why": "Protects one smelter-linked industry but invites retaliation against a trade-dependent economy.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First will immediately reverse this week's decision by the Minister of Consumer Affairs", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016214927/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_will_immediately_reverse_this_week_s_decision_by_the_minister_of_consumer_affairs" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P5", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Military neutrality and alliance review", "why": "Lowers involvement in great-power conflict but removes partner support, with no plan for self-reliance or its cost.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Military Neutrality", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818013137/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/military_neutrality" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P5", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "None stated", "why": "Silent on the grouping, so it neither builds nor borrows here.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Policy.nz 2026", "url": "https://policy.nz/" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 3, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 14, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "The Defence Capability Plan sets a funded path to 2% of GDP by 2032, and trade and alliance settings have cross-bloc support; the government has not said what it will forgo to pay for it, or whether 2% is enough.", "relief_rationale": "The Defence Capability Plan adds $9b over four years, but the capability builds toward 2% of GDP by 2032; trade deals continue case by case, with no new answer to tariffs this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Ministry of Defence, Defence Capability Plan released", "url": "https://defence.govt.nz/news/defence-capability-plan-released" }, { "title": "1News, US 'freeloading' claim puts heat on NZ's independent foreign policy", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/06/05/us-freeloading-claim-puts-heat-on-nzs-independent-foreign-policy/" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 15, "voter_15": 10, "rationale": "Names market concentration as the trade risk and sets a measurable target (double exports by 2034, 13 named partners), with the aid cut costed in its fiscal plan and a delivery record in government; it names who pays (non-Pacific aid, $431m), but Labour and the Greens would reverse the aid cut, and it adds no defence position beyond current settings.", "relief_rationale": "Export doubling targets 2034 and new trade talks start within five years, so gains mostly land after 2029; the trade missions and a trans-Tasman travel trial before the 2028 Cricket World Cup are narrow. The aid cut's relief falls in health, not here.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, New Zealand's Next Billion Customers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213604/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/new-trade" }, { "title": "National, More medicines and earlier care", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006022645/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/more-medicines-and-earlier-care" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan" } ], "headline": "Double exports by 2034 through new trade deals, and cut aid outside the Pacific to fund medicines.", "policies": [ "Double export earnings by 2034; at least 23 trade missions next term", "Start trade talks with Brazil, Switzerland, Argentina, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Uruguay and EFTA within five years", "Cut non-Pacific aid by 10% ($431m over four years) to fund Pharmac", "Trial passport-free digital trans-Tasman travel before the 2028 Cricket World Cup; ratify the High Seas Treaty" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "National, New Zealand's Next Billion Customers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213604/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/new-trade", "date": "2026-07-05", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, More medicines and earlier care", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006022645/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/more-medicines-and-earlier-care", "date": "2026-10-06", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National to trial seamless trans-Tasman travel", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001001141/https://www.national.org.nz/news/261001-national-to-trial-seamless-trans-tasman", "date": "2026-10-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Growing more to feed the world (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018201850/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Growing%20More%20to%20Feed%20the%20World.pdf?v=1792108210", "date": "2026-10-16", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/nationals-fiscal-plan", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 1 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 8, "voter_15": 5, "rationale": "Names a less stable world and strained alliances, but answers with intent: aid to 0.7% of GDP has no date or cost and is not in its fiscal plan. It has no defence position, and its stance relies on a speech (tier 3) and one release.", "relief_rationale": "Aid to 0.7% of GDP has no date, new trade deals with Africa and South America would land after the term, and Pacific visa-waiver travel helps a narrow group; no defence position.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/" }, { "title": "Labour will expand visa-waiver travel to Pacific citizens", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260920191315/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-expand-visa-waiver-travel-to-pacific-citizens/" }, { "title": "Labour, Fiscal plan", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/election-policy-pages/fiscal-plan/" } ], "headline": "An 'independent voice' foreign policy: more aid, new markets, recognise Palestine; no stated defence position.", "policies": [ "Raise aid progressively to 0.7% of GDP 'as fiscal limitations allow' (no date)", "Trade deals with Africa and South America; prioritise ASEAN, the EU and Canada", "Recognise Palestine, sanction Israel, divest ACC and NZ Super Fund from occupied territories", "Pacific climate and displacement agreement; visa-waiver travel for Pacific Islands Forum citizens" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/", "date": "2026-09-23", "tier": 3 }, { "title": "Labour will expand visa-waiver travel to Pacific citizens", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260920191315/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-expand-visa-waiver-travel-to-pacific-citizens/", "date": "2026-09-17", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 7, "voter_15": 5, "rationale": "Names climate as the Pacific's main security threat, but the case that leaving Five Eyes improves security is asserted; Pacific climate finance is uncosted and outside its tax package, and Labour does not back leaving Five Eyes.", "relief_rationale": "Leaving Five Eyes and refocusing the Defence Force are structural and untimed; restored Pacific climate finance helps a narrow group, and nothing addresses tariff exposure this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Global Affairs and Trade", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025316/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_global_affairs_and_trade" }, { "title": "Green Party, Pacific Peoples", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030402/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_pacific_peoples" }, { "title": "Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260806041055/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/71965/attachments/original/1782084525/GreensTaxPolicy2026.pdf?1782084525" } ], "headline": "Step away from US-led security ties and put climate, human rights and the Pacific at the centre.", "policies": [ "Withdraw from Five Eyes; stay out of AUKUS; refocus the Defence Force on climate, humanitarian work and monitoring", "No autonomous weapons, and support an international ban", "Restore and raise Pacific climate finance", "Recognise Palestine and pass the party's bill to sanction Israel; enforceable Te Tiriti, labour and climate clauses in trade deals" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Global Affairs and Trade", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025316/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_global_affairs_and_trade", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Pacific Peoples", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030402/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_pacific_peoples", "date": "2026-08-13", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013032821/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "The aid cut is framed as a fiscal saving, not a foreign-policy answer, but it is costed in its fiscal plan ($283m a year) and names who pays; National backs a smaller cut. ACT says little on trade or alliances.", "relief_rationale": "Protecting defence from cuts keeps the $9b Defence Capability Plan, the same in-term effect as the status quo; the aid cut is a fiscal saving and nothing lands on trade exposure.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, New Zealand can't keep exporting taxpayers' money", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012004027/https://www.act.org.nz/news/new-zealand-can-t-keep-exporting-taxpayers-money" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan" } ], "headline": "Cut foreign aid back to 2017 levels to help balance the books.", "policies": [ "Cut aid to 2017 levels, saving about $283m a year (about 28%), excluding Ukraine", "Protect defence from spending cuts (fiscal plan)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT, New Zealand can't keep exporting taxpayers' money", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012004027/https://www.act.org.nz/news/new-zealand-can-t-keep-exporting-taxpayers-money", "date": "2026-10-10", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/fiscalplan", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "Aluminium protection treats job losses as the problem without weighing retaliation or consumer costs; it is uncosted and names no losers.", "relief_rationale": "Reversing the decision on trade protection for NZ-made aluminium would apply immediately but helps a small group; the national interest test for UN agreements is a process change.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First will immediately reverse this week's decision by the Minister of Consumer Affairs", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016214927/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_will_immediately_reverse_this_week_s_decision_by_the_minister_of_consumer_affairs" }, { "title": "NZ First, policy pages and speeches", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy" } ], "headline": "Protect domestic industry and national sovereignty in trade and international agreements.", "policies": [ "Reverse the decision not to seek trade protection for NZ-made aluminium", "National interest test for UN agreements (as summarised in this report; party source to confirm)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First will immediately reverse this week's decision by the Minister of Consumer Affairs", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016214927/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_will_immediately_reverse_this_week_s_decision_by_the_minister_of_consumer_affairs", "date": "2026-10-17", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First, policy pages and speeches", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy", "date": "2026-10-19", "tier": 2 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "Asserts that alliances with powerful states are the risk and proposes neutrality with no legal path, cost or assessment of the security trade-off; no likely partner backs it.", "relief_rationale": "Declaring military neutrality and reviewing all alliances is a review with no timeline or legal path; nothing on trade.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Military Neutrality", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818013137/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/military_neutrality" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf" } ], "headline": "Declare military neutrality and refocus foreign policy on the Pacific and Indigenous solidarity.", "policies": [ "Declare New Zealand 'militarily neutral' and review all military alliances", "Focus the Defence Force on protection, disaster response and the Pacific", "Fund a national action plan to implement UNDRIP", "Hold international war criminals to account" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Military Neutrality", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818013137/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/military_neutrality", "date": "2026-06-03", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf", "date": "2026-09-09", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": true, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 0, "Mechanism": 0, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 0, "Relief": 0, "Future effect": 0, "Durability": 0, "Candour": 0 }, "readiness_21": 0, "voter_15": 0, "rationale": "Silent: no policy on defence, foreign affairs, aid or trade found in party documents or on Policy.nz to 19 October.", "relief_rationale": "Silent: no policy on defence, foreign affairs or trade to 19 October 2026.", "sources": [ { "title": "Policy.nz 2026", "url": "https://policy.nz/" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset" } ], "headline": "No stated position on defence, foreign affairs or trade.", "policies": [], "party_sources": [] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G12.0", "title": "Stay in Five Eyes", "statement": "New Zealand should stay in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance.", "why_it_matters": "Five Eyes is New Zealand's main security partnership; leaving it would be the biggest change to foreign policy in decades.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Five Eyes is an intelligence-sharing alliance between New Zealand, Australia, the US, the UK and Canada. Agreeing keeps membership; disagreeing means leaving it.", "case_for": "It gives a small country intelligence and security support it could never build alone.", "case_against": "It ties New Zealand to larger powers' priorities and can limit an independent foreign policy.", "the_tradeoff": "Close security ties versus more independence in an uncertain world." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "neutral", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Government member; no 2026 policy statement found", "labour": "Speech stresses allies; no Five Eyes commitment", "greens": "Withdraw from Five Eyes; decline AUKUS", "act": "No position found", "nz-first": "No position found", "te-pati-maori": "Review all alliances; quit those undermining sovereignty", "opportunity": "No position found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Global Affairs and Trade", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025316/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_global_affairs_and_trade" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Military Neutrality", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818013137/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/military_neutrality" }, { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G12.1", "title": "Cut foreign aid", "statement": "New Zealand's foreign aid budget should be cut.", "why_it_matters": "Weighs New Zealand's main source of Pacific influence against money for needs at home.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "New Zealand's aid goes mostly to the Pacific. Proposals range from cutting non-Pacific aid 10% to returning to 2017 levels (about 28% less); others would raise aid towards 0.7% of GDP.", "case_for": "The savings (about $283m a year in one proposal) could fund needs at home, such as medicines.", "case_against": "Aid is New Zealand's main tool of influence in the Pacific; cuts could weaken ties with neighbours.", "the_tradeoff": "Money for domestic needs versus influence in the region." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "disagree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Cut non-Pacific aid 10% to fund Pharmac", "labour": "Raise aid towards 0.7% of GDP", "greens": "Restore and raise Pacific climate finance", "act": "Back to 2017 levels, about 28% less", "nz-first": "No aid position found", "te-pati-maori": "Pacific focus; no aid figure", "opportunity": "No aid policy found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, More medicines and earlier care", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261006022645/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/more-medicines-and-earlier-care" }, { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/" }, { "title": "Green Party, Pacific Peoples", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030402/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_pacific_peoples" }, { "title": "ACT, New Zealand can't keep exporting taxpayers' money", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012004027/https://www.act.org.nz/news/new-zealand-can-t-keep-exporting-taxpayers-money" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G12.2", "title": "Recognise Palestine", "statement": "New Zealand should formally recognise the state of Palestine.", "why_it_matters": "Sets where New Zealand stands on Palestinian statehood: now, or within a peace deal.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Recognising Palestine means formally accepting it as a state. New Zealand has not done so; most UN members have.", "case_for": "It brings New Zealand into line with most UN members and backs Palestinians' right to their own state.", "case_against": "Recognition is better kept as part of a future peace deal, where it can help secure agreement.", "the_tradeoff": "Taking a clear stand now versus holding recognition for a peace settlement." }, "positions": { "national": "silent", "labour": "agree", "greens": "agree", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "No 2026 party policy found", "labour": "Recognise at the UN; sanctions on Israel", "greens": "Recognise; party bill to sanction Israel", "act": "No position found", "nz-first": "No position found", "te-pati-maori": "War criminals held to account; no recognition policy", "opportunity": "No position found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/" }, { "title": "Green Party, Global Affairs and Trade", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025316/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_global_affairs_and_trade" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G12.3", "title": "New trade deals", "statement": "New Zealand should keep pursuing free trade deals with new markets such as Brazil and African countries.", "why_it_matters": "Spreading exports beyond China, Australia and the US reduces exposure to one market's tariffs.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "New Zealand already pursues new free trade deals. This would keep seeking deals with new markets such as Brazil and African countries, beyond main partners China, Australia and the US.", "case_for": "Spreading exports beyond China, Australia and the US reduces exposure to one market's tariffs.", "case_against": "New deals expose local firms to more competition and may not protect workers, the environment or Te Tiriti.", "the_tradeoff": "Wider markets for exporters versus pressure on some local industries." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "agree", "greens": "neutral", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "13 named partners; double exports by 2034", "labour": "New markets in Africa and South America", "greens": "More scrutiny; enforceable Te Tiriti and climate clauses", "act": "No trade policy found", "nz-first": "Seeks aluminium protection; no FTA position", "te-pati-maori": "No trade policy found", "opportunity": "No trade policy found" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National, New Zealand's Next Billion Customers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909213604/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/new-trade" }, { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/" }, { "title": "Green Party, Global Affairs and Trade", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025316/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_global_affairs_and_trade" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] }, { "code": "G13", "name": "Community, inclusion and culture", "short": "Community and culture", "voter_weight": 2, "weight_2050": 3, "problem_voters_feel": "Access to disability support and carer strain, children's harm online, slow retirement village repayments, and cuts to arts and public media.", "stakes_now": { "text": "About one in six New Zealanders is disabled, and the new Disability Support Services Act, passed on 1 September 2026, sets the rules for the support many of them and their carers rely on. Alongside it, voters face live choices on children's social media use, retirement village repayments and a 2% savings cut across arts, culture and public media funding in Budget 2026.", "number_to_know": "17% of people in New Zealand households are disabled, about 851,000 people (Stats NZ Household Disability Survey 2023).", "source": { "title": "17 percent of New Zealanders are disabled (Whaikaha, Stats NZ Household Disability Survey 2023)", "url": "https://www.whaikaha.govt.nz/news/news/17-percent-of-new-zealanders-are-disabled" } }, "stakes_2050": { "text": "Disability rises steeply with age: 35% of people aged 65 and over are disabled, and working-age people per person over 65 fall from 3.8 to 2.8 by 2050, so demand for disability support, carers and accessible housing grows faster than the workforce that pays for and delivers it. Choices made now on accessibility standards, carer pay and how support is legislated set the cost and quality of that care for two decades.", "number_to_know": "35% of people aged 65 and over are disabled, about double the national rate (Stats NZ 2023); 3.8 to 2.8 working-age people per person over 65 by 2050 (Treasury).", "source": { "title": "Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)", "url": "https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025" }, "pressures": [ "P1" ] }, "status_quo": "The Disability Support Services Act (passed 1 September 2026) gives disability support its first legal framework, with $2.1b of extra funding committed through successive Budgets. Budget 2026 applied a 2% savings requirement to arts, culture and heritage ($27.1m over four years, including $13.8m at NZ On Air); the government's under-16 social media bill was introduced on 24 August 2026 but did not get a first reading before the election.", "options": [ { "option": "Ban under-16s from social media accounts by law, enforced by a regulator", "parties": [ "National", "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Regulate platforms through a digital duty of care rather than (or before) settling an age ban", "parties": [ "Greens", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Seek a negotiated settlement with platforms (screen-time limits, parental controls) instead of a ban", "parties": [ "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Repeal and replace the Disability Support Services Act with law co-designed with disabled people", "parties": [ "Labour" ] }, { "option": "Rights-based disability law with enforceable accessibility standards", "parties": [ "Greens" ] }, { "option": "Simplify disability support access (Tell Us Once, Māori-led services, funding by need)", "parties": [ "Opportunity", "Te Pāti Māori" ] }, { "option": "Hunter-led management of introduced game animals through the Game Animal Council", "parties": [ "National", "ACT" ] }, { "option": "Faster retirement village repayments (nine months versus three months)", "parties": [ "National", "Labour" ] }, { "option": "More stable public funding for arts, Māori arts and public media", "parties": [ "Greens", "Te Pāti Māori", "Opportunity" ] }, { "option": "Abolish population-group ministries (Women, Pacific Peoples and others)", "parties": [ "ACT" ] } ], "test_2050": "The Greens' accessibility standards and universal design rules, and Opportunity's Tell Us Once system, are the only answers that build capacity for an older, more disabled population; National's parental leave and Labour's carer pay rises help today but add recurring cost. ACT's ministry cuts and the coalition's DSS framework aim at fiscal control of support spending but do not say how demand from ageing will be met. Nobody sets out how disability and aged-care support will be funded as people over 65, a third of whom are disabled, grow faster than the working-age population.", "pressure_links": [ { "party": "National", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Paid parental leave to 30 weeks; nine-month retirement village repayments", "why": "Adds a modest costed transfer for young families and shifts some risk to village operators, with no change to how disability or aged-care demand is funded.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "Modernising Paid Parental Leave", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214521/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/paid-parental-leave" } }, { "party": "Labour", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Repeal and replace the DSS Act; three-month village payouts", "why": "Changes the rules for support and repayment but does not cost or fund the growth in disability support demand from ageing.", "durable": "partly", "source": { "title": "National turns flawed disability Bill into law", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-turns-flawed-disability-bill-into-law/" } }, { "party": "Greens", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Disability rights law, universal design standards, state-owned retirement villages, care worker pay equity", "why": "Universal design lowers the future cost of ageing in place, but large uncosted income and service commitments offset that on the fiscal side.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Greens: Disability Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916235414/https://www.greens.org.nz/disability_policy_full" } }, { "party": "ACT", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Abolish demographic ministries ($187m a year saving)", "why": "A small saving that does not touch the main drivers of disability and aged-care cost growth.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "ACT Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" } }, { "party": "NZ First", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "No disability or aged-care offer in this grouping", "why": "Its G13 items (fireworks, combat sports, cathedral) do not affect ageing costs.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "NZ First to Ban Public Sales of Fireworks", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261009005530/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_ban_public_sales_of_fireworks" } }, { "party": "Te Pāti Māori", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Māori-led disability services funded by need", "why": "May improve access for disabled Māori but has no costing or delivery path that changes long-run cost.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Disabilities", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/disabilities" } }, { "party": "Opportunity", "pressure": "P1", "effect": "neutral", "policy": "Tell Us Once; disability allowance within a Citizen's Income", "why": "Cuts administrative churn for disabled people, but the allowance's cost and effect on long-run spending are not shown separately.", "durable": "no", "source": { "title": "Opportunity: Disability Statement", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012001842/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/disability_statement" } } ], "since_19_oct": [], "rows": { "current-settings": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 3, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "The DSS Act names a driver (an unlegislated, financially unsustainable support system) and is funded in Budgets ($2.1b) and in force, but the path to better outcomes is asserted, not tested. Labour pledges repeal and the under-16 bill stalled, so durability is low; arts savings ($27.1m) are stated without naming who loses.", "relief_rationale": "The Disability Support Services Act and $2.1b of Budget funding keep support going, but arts and public media take a 2% cut ($27.1m) and the under-16 social media bill lapsed, so little new relief lands this term.", "sources": [ { "title": "Ministers' press release: DSS Bill third reading", "url": "https://www.disabilitysupport.govt.nz/assets/Aug-2026-DSS-Bill-information/Ministers-press-release-DSS-Bill-third-reading.pdf" }, { "title": "New Zealand arts organisations face funding uncertainty as government cuts flow through sector (Australasian Leisure Management)", "url": "https://www.ausleisure.com.au/news/new-zealand-arts-organisations-face-funding-uncertainty-as-government-cuts-flow-through-sector" }, { "title": "Logged out: New Zealand moves to ban children from social media (Simpson Grierson)", "url": "https://www.simpsongrierson.com/insights-news/legal-updates/logged-out-new-zealand-moves-to-ban-children-from-social-media" } ] }, "national": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 13, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Names drivers (1 in 3 teens on social media over five hours a day; slow village repayments) with a named bill, regulator and penalties; parental leave is costed in the fiscal plan ($328m). Labour backs the age ban, but ACT and NZ First oppose it; the retirement village paper names the trade-off (a three-month rule would add up to $118,000 to entry costs).", "relief_rationale": "The under-16 social media ban bill would need reintroducing (the current bill lapsed) and has no start date, and faster retirement village repayments are undated; paid parental leave is an income payment scored in G01.", "sources": [ { "title": "Government moves to ban U16s from social media", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260826043303/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260824-christopherluxon" }, { "title": "Modernising Paid Parental Leave", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214521/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/paid-parental-leave" }, { "title": "Faster and fairer retirement village repayments", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921075707/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260918-tamapotaka" }, { "title": "National's Plan for Hunting and Fishing (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819213412/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Plan%20for%20Hunting%20and%20Fishing.pdf?v=1785105126" } ], "headline": "Online safety, parental leave, retirement village repayments and a hunting and fishing plan.", "policies": [ "Ban under-16s from social media; age checks by platforms; fines up to the greater of $40m or 10% of global turnover (bill introduced 24 August 2026)", "Paid parental leave from 26 to 30 weeks by 2029 ($328m over four years in fiscal plan)", "Retirement villages repay 10% within four weeks and the balance within nine months", "Recognise game animals in law; Game Animal Council as statutory manager; service dog ID card" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Government moves to ban U16s from social media", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260826043303/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260824-christopherluxon", "date": "2026-08-24", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Modernising Paid Parental Leave", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260909214521/https://www.national.org.nz/policies/paid-parental-leave", "date": "2026-07-26", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "Faster and fairer retirement village repayments", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921075707/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260918-tamapotaka", "date": "2026-09-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National's Plan for Hunting and Fishing (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819213412/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Plan%20for%20Hunting%20and%20Fishing.pdf?v=1785105126", "date": "2026-07-25", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Service dog IDs to improve disability access", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819212723/https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260805-honlouiseupston", "date": "2026-08-05", "tier": 2 } ] }, "labour": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 8, "rationale": "Names drivers (platform power, a rushed disability law, slow village payouts) with a regulator, a duty of care and 100-day legislation. Children's sport money is stated ($4m; $12m over four years) but the DSS replacement and regulator are not costed; the age ban has National's support. Says little on who pays for three-month payouts beyond a hardship exemption.", "relief_rationale": "Labour promises to introduce its online safety regulation within 100 days but gives no start date for the under-16 ban, and faster retirement village repayments are undated; repealing the Disability Support Services Act may disrupt support this term. Small or undated relief, so 1.", "sources": [ { "title": "Safer online (Labour)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018220554/https://www.labour.org.nz/safer-online" }, { "title": "National turns flawed disability Bill into law", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-turns-flawed-disability-bill-into-law/" }, { "title": "National's retirement village policy leaves residents out of pocket", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-nationals-retirement-village-policy-leaves-residents-out-of-pocket/" }, { "title": "Getting kids off screens and back to being kids", "url": "https://web.archive.org/save/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-getting-kids-off-screens-and-back-to-being-kids/" } ], "headline": "Repeal the disability support law, regulate online platforms, faster village payouts.", "policies": [ "Repeal the Disability Support Services Act and replace it with law drafted with disabled people", "Under-16 social media ban, digital duty of care and an independent digital regulator, legislation within 100 days", "Retirement villages repay 10% within five working days and the balance within three months, existing residents included", "Rainbow Pae Ora health strategy; $4m for Tū Manawa and $12m over four years for Active Me, Kia Tū (children's sport)" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Labour will scrap harmful disability Bill", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824025729/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-scrap-harmful-disability-bill/", "date": "2026-07-02", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National turns flawed disability Bill into law", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-turns-flawed-disability-bill-into-law/", "date": "2026-09-01", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Safer online (Labour)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018220554/https://www.labour.org.nz/safer-online", "date": "2026-10-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "National's retirement village policy leaves residents out of pocket", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-nationals-retirement-village-policy-leaves-residents-out-of-pocket/", "date": "2026-09-18", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Labour to deliver stronger healthcare and protections for rainbow communities", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260923032200/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-deliver-stronger-healthcare-and-protections-for-rainbow-communities/", "date": "2026-09-22", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Getting kids off screens and back to being kids", "url": "https://web.archive.org/save/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-getting-kids-off-screens-and-back-to-being-kids/", "date": "2026-10-18", "tier": 2 } ] }, "greens": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 2, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 2 }, "readiness_21": 11, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Broadest and most specific offer: enforceable accessibility standards, universal design for housing, Enabling Good Lives as the model, and named law changes (Human Rights Act, animal welfare department). Care worker pay equity is costed ($1.1b a year) but most items are uncosted and untimed; it names losers (recreational hunting ranks below pest control; wealth tax payers fund the package).", "relief_rationale": "Broad offer (disability rights law, Total Mobility subsidy at 75%, more arts and public media funding, rainbow law changes), but none carries a start date or timetable, and the rights law and state villages build slowly.", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens: Disability Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916235414/https://www.greens.org.nz/disability_policy_full" }, { "title": "Greens: Rainbow Communities", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030603/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_rainbow_communities" }, { "title": "Greens: Culture and Creativity", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023538/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_culture_and_creativity" }, { "title": "Greens: Animal Welfare Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/64486/attachments/original/1778624593/Policy-Greens_Animal_Welfare_2025-2026.pdf" }, { "title": "Greens commit to pay equity for care workers", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261001235530/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_commit_to_pay_equity_for_care_workers" } ], "headline": "The broadest offer: disability rights law, rainbow rights, arts and public media funding, animal welfare.", "policies": [ "Disability rights law based on Te Tiriti with enforceable accessibility standards; Total Mobility subsidy back to 75%", "Human Rights Act amended for gender identity and sex characteristics; extend hate speech law; revoke the puberty blocker ban", "Stable, non-gambling arts funding; living wage for artists on public projects; more funding for RNZ, Whakaata Māori and community media", "Department of Animal Welfare with a Minister and a Parliamentary Commissioner for Animal Justice; state-owned retirement villages" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Greens: Disability Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916235414/https://www.greens.org.nz/disability_policy_full", "date": "2026-03-02", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens: Rainbow Communities", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030603/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_rainbow_communities", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens: Justice and Community Safety", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813025807/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_justice_and_community_safety", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens: Culture and Creativity", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023538/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_culture_and_creativity", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens: Animal Welfare Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/64486/attachments/original/1778624593/Policy-Greens_Animal_Welfare_2025-2026.pdf", "date": "2026-03-09", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Greens: Seniors", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030649/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_seniors", "tier": 2 } ] }, "act": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 2, "Delivery": 2, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 2, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 12, "voter_15": 9, "rationale": "Pet coercion law cites research (half of victims delay leaving over pets) and overseas precedent; ministry abolition ($187m a year) sits in the published fiscal plan; vehicles are named (Crimes Act, letters of expectation). Hunter-led game management is shared with National; it does not say who loses from abolishing ministries or the Meta-deal approach.", "relief_rationale": "Narrow items: a new pet-coercion offence for family violence, speech protections for regulated professionals and game animal management; it opposes the under-16 ban in favour of a platform deal.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT: Stop Coercion by Animal Abuse", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728205934/https://www.act.org.nz/stopping-coercion" }, { "title": "ACT: Hunter-led Game Management", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210157/https://www.act.org.nz/game-management" }, { "title": "ACT Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898" }, { "title": "Landmark social media settlement shows better way forward", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929000336/https://www.act.org.nz/news/landmark-social-media-settlement-shows-better-way-forward" } ], "headline": "Hunter-led game management, free speech protections and fewer population-group ministries.", "policies": [ "Transfer game animals on conservation land from DOC to the Game Animal Council; recognise them as a resource, not pests", "Make abusing a pet to coerce a family violence victim a crime, up to seven years' prison", "Bar professional regulators from disciplining members for lawful speech outside their practice", "Abolish demographic ministries, saving $187m a year (fiscal plan); a Meta-style platform deal instead of an under-16 ban" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "ACT: Hunter-led Game Management", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210157/https://www.act.org.nz/game-management", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT: Stop Coercion by Animal Abuse", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728205934/https://www.act.org.nz/stopping-coercion", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT: Free Speech for Regulated Professionals", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818010339/https://www.act.org.nz/professional-free-speech", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "ACT Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012012843/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/38747/attachments/original/1791599898/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf?1791599898", "date": "2026-10-11", "tier": 1 }, { "title": "Landmark social media settlement shows better way forward", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929000336/https://www.act.org.nz/news/landmark-social-media-settlement-shows-better-way-forward", "date": "2026-08-27", "tier": 3 } ] }, "nz-first": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Narrow but concrete: the combat sports commission responds to a coroner's report, and the fireworks ban names fires, pet distress and ACC costs. The cathedral is costed ($15m) with no funding source and NZ First publishes no fiscal plan; no timelines or partners named.", "relief_rationale": "Fireworks sales ban, a combat sports commission and $15m for the Christchurch Cathedral are narrow and untimed; it opposes the under-16 ban.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First Announces Overhaul to Regulate Combat Sports", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016215055/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_overhaul_to_regulate_combat_sports" }, { "title": "NZ First to Ban Public Sales of Fireworks", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261009005530/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_ban_public_sales_of_fireworks" }, { "title": "Complete the Christchurch Cathedral", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015000/https://www.nzfirst.nz/complete_the_christchurch_cathedral" } ], "headline": "Targeted items: fireworks, combat sports and the Christchurch Cathedral.", "policies": [ "Ban retail sale, manufacture and import of fireworks for public use; approved public displays only", "Combat Sports Commission to license events and promoters, with medical standards", "$15m to complete the first stage of the Christchurch Cathedral rebuild", "Opposes the under-16 social media ban (coalition 'agree to disagree')" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "NZ First to Ban Public Sales of Fireworks", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261009005530/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nzfirst_to_ban_public_sales_of_fireworks", "date": "2026-10-09", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "NZ First Announces Overhaul to Regulate Combat Sports", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261016215055/https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_overhaul_to_regulate_combat_sports", "date": "2026-10-15", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Complete the Christchurch Cathedral", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015000/https://www.nzfirst.nz/complete_the_christchurch_cathedral", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Govt says no time for social media bill after Labour backs it (1News)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/08/25/govt-says-no-time-for-social-media-bill-after-labour-backs-it/", "date": "2026-08-25", "tier": 3 } ] }, "te-pati-maori": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 1, "Mechanism": 1, "Funding": 0, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 6, "voter_15": 4, "rationale": "Commitments to Māori-led disability services, Toi Māori, rangatahi sport and takatāpui protection describe the problem but not a vehicle, amount or timeline. None of these items is in its costed tax package.", "relief_rationale": "Māori-led disability services, Toi Māori, rangatahi sport and takatāpui protections are stated as intent with no amount, vehicle or timeline.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Disabilities", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/disabilities" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Toi Māori", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818013537/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/toi_maori" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Sports", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818042739/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/sports" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Takatāpui", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043345/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/takat_pui" } ], "headline": "Māori-led disability services, Toi Māori, rangatahi sport and takatāpui protections.", "policies": [ "Māori-led disability services, funded by what whānau say they need rather than forms", "More support for Māori-led arts infrastructure, funding and creative industries", "Invest in sport pathways for rangatahi", "Protect takatāpui Māori wellbeing and ensure public services account for it" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Disabilities", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/disabilities", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Toi Māori", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818013537/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/toi_maori", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Sports", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818042739/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/sports", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori: Takatāpui", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043345/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/takat_pui", "date": "2026-06-03", "tier": 2 } ] }, "opportunity": { "silent": false, "tests": { "Diagnosis": 2, "Mechanism": 2, "Funding": 1, "Delivery": 1, "Relief": 1, "Future effect": 1, "Durability": 1, "Candour": 1 }, "readiness_21": 9, "voter_15": 7, "rationale": "Names drivers with numbers (one in six disabled; bottom ten in the OECD for public arts spending; income precarity, not grant levels, as the barrier) and a plausible Tell Us Once mechanism. The disability allowance is stated but not shown in its costed tax package; delivery is intent only.", "relief_rationale": "Tell Us Once, ending sub-minimum wage exemptions and better carer respite could help disabled people, but none is dated; the citizen's income is the main lever for artists and has no start date in these documents.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity: Disability Statement", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012001842/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/disability_statement" }, { "title": "Opportunity: Arts and culture statement", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261019211037/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/arts_and_culture_statement" } ], "headline": "Disability support simplified and backed by a citizen's income; arts supported through income security.", "policies": [ "'Tell Us Once' system so disabled people do not repeat their story to each agency", "End sub-minimum wage exemptions for disabled workers; Citizen's Income and a disability allowance", "Better respite and support for unpaid carers; restore pay equity for care and support workers", "Arts: citizen's income, repeal the charitable donations cap, recognise arts in innovation funding" ], "party_sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity: Disability Statement", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012001842/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/disability_statement", "date": "2026-10-12", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity: Arts and culture statement", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261019211037/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/arts_and_culture_statement", "date": "2026-10-19", "tier": 2 }, { "title": "Opportunity to support online safety bill to select committee", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260828093652/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/opportunity_to_support_online_safety_bill_to_select_committee", "date": "2026-08-25", "tier": 2 } ] } }, "statements": [ { "id": "G13.0", "title": "Under-16 social media ban", "statement": "Children under 16 should be banned by law from holding social media accounts.", "why_it_matters": "Decides whether the law sets an age limit for social media, or families decide.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "A bill introduced in August 2026 would ban under-16s from social media accounts, with platforms checking ages and facing large fines. It did not get a first reading before the election.", "case_for": "It protects children from harmful content and addictive design during key years of growing up.", "case_against": "Age checks are hard to enforce, raise privacy concerns and may push children to riskier sites.", "the_tradeoff": "Stronger protection for children versus privacy and enforceability." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "agree", "greens": "neutral", "act": "disagree", "nz-first": "disagree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "Introduced the Online Safety bill with age checks, 24 August", "labour": "Under-16 account ban within 100 days, plus a regulator", "greens": "Digital duty of care; sceptical of an age ban", "act": "Opposes ban; prefers a Meta-style settlement with limits", "nz-first": "Peters: will never support it; agree to disagree", "te-pati-maori": "No position found in party documents", "opportunity": "Send to select committee; decide after evidence" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Government moves to ban U16s from social media", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260826043303/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260824-christopherluxon" }, { "title": "Safer online (Labour)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018220554/https://www.labour.org.nz/safer-online" }, { "title": "Greens: Digital Technology", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024350/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_digital_technology" }, { "title": "Landmark social media settlement shows better way forward", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929000336/https://www.act.org.nz/news/landmark-social-media-settlement-shows-better-way-forward" }, { "title": "Govt says no time for social media bill after Labour backs it (1News)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/08/25/govt-says-no-time-for-social-media-bill-after-labour-backs-it/" }, { "title": "Opportunity to support online safety bill to select committee", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260828093652/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/opportunity_to_support_online_safety_bill_to_select_committee" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G13.1", "title": "Keep the DSS Act", "statement": "The Disability Support Services Act passed in 2026 should stay in force.", "why_it_matters": "Sets the rules for support that thousands of disabled people and carers rely on.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "The Disability Support Services Act (September 2026) gives disability support its first legal framework, setting eligibility and ministers' powers. Disagreeing means replacing it with a law written with disabled people.", "case_for": "It gives certainty now, backed by $2.1b of extra funding, rather than restarting the process.", "case_against": "Disability groups and critics say it was rushed with poor consultation, so it may not meet needs.", "the_tradeoff": "Stability now versus a slower rewrite, as need grows with an ageing population." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "disagree", "greens": "disagree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "agree", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "neutral" }, "notes": { "national": "Its Ministers passed the Act on 1 September 2026", "labour": "Will repeal and replace with co-designed law", "greens": "Opposed the bill as rushed and flawed", "act": "Coalition votes passed the Act (voting record)", "nz-first": "Coalition votes passed the Act (voting record)", "te-pati-maori": "No position found in party documents", "opportunity": "Criticises consultation; no repeal pledge" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Ministers' press release: DSS Bill third reading", "url": "https://www.disabilitysupport.govt.nz/assets/Aug-2026-DSS-Bill-information/Ministers-press-release-DSS-Bill-third-reading.pdf" }, { "title": "National turns flawed disability Bill into law", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-turns-flawed-disability-bill-into-law/" }, { "title": "Government rushes disability bill through Parliament without disabled people at the table", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/government_rushes_disability_bill_through_parliament_without_disabled_people_at_the_table" }, { "title": "Opportunity: Disability Statement", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012001842/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/disability_statement" } ], "in_quiz": true }, { "id": "G13.2", "title": "Village payout in 3 months", "statement": "Retirement villages should have to repay departing residents in full within three months.", "why_it_matters": "Residents and estates can wait many months for capital; faster payouts may raise entry costs.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "When residents leave or die, villages repay their capital, which can take many months. There is no legal deadline now. This would require full repayment within three months; another plan sets nine months.", "case_for": "Residents and estates get their money sooner, often when needed for care or a new home.", "case_against": "Faster payouts raise villages' costs, which could flow into higher entry prices for new residents.", "the_tradeoff": "Quicker payouts versus possibly dearer entry for future residents." }, "positions": { "national": "disagree", "labour": "agree", "greens": "silent", "act": "silent", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Nine-month maximum; says three months adds $118,000", "labour": "10% in five working days, balance in three months", "greens": "State-owned villages proposed; no repayment timeline", "act": "No position found in party documents", "nz-first": "No position found in party documents", "te-pati-maori": "No position found in party documents", "opportunity": "No position found in party documents" }, "sources": [ { "title": "Faster and fairer retirement village repayments", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921075707/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260918-tamapotaka" }, { "title": "National's retirement village policy leaves residents out of pocket", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-nationals-retirement-village-policy-leaves-residents-out-of-pocket/" }, { "title": "Greens: Seniors", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813030649/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_seniors" } ], "in_quiz": false }, { "id": "G13.3", "title": "Game animals as resource", "statement": "Introduced game animals such as deer and tahr should be recognised in law as a hunting resource, not only as pests.", "why_it_matters": "It decides whether hunters or conservation managers set herd numbers on public land.", "explainer": { "what_it_means": "Introduced game animals such as deer and tahr are mainly treated as pests on conservation land now. This would recognise them in law as a hunting resource, with the Game Animal Council (a hunter-focused body) managing herds.", "case_for": "Hunters gain a say in herd numbers, supporting a popular pastime and the businesses around it.", "case_against": "These animals damage native plants, and conservation goals could come second to hunting.", "the_tradeoff": "Hunting interests versus protecting native ecosystems on public land." }, "positions": { "national": "agree", "labour": "silent", "greens": "disagree", "act": "agree", "nz-first": "silent", "te-pati-maori": "silent", "opportunity": "silent" }, "notes": { "national": "Herds of Special Interest; Game Animal Council as manager", "labour": "No position found in party documents", "greens": "Pest control of deer ranks above recreational hunting", "act": "Game animals become natural resources; Council takes over", "nz-first": "No position found in party documents", "te-pati-maori": "No position found in party documents", "opportunity": "No position found in party documents" }, "sources": [ { "title": "National's Plan for Hunting and Fishing (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819213412/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Plan%20for%20Hunting%20and%20Fishing.pdf?v=1785105126" }, { "title": "ACT: Hunter-led Game Management", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260728210157/https://www.act.org.nz/game-management" }, { "title": "Greens: Biodiversity and Environmental Regeneration Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260827221752/https://www.greens.org.nz/biodiversity_environmental_regeneration_policy" } ], "in_quiz": false } ] } ]