[ { "id": "current-settings", "name": "Status quo", "is_baseline": true, "display_name": "Current settings", "colour": "#586772", "poll_average": null, "seats_projected": null, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 58, "voter_priorities": 55, "readiness_band": "fair", "voter_band": "fair" }, "confidence": null, "fiscal_detail": "Treasury forecast", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 53, "real": 76, "lasting": 48 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P2": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P3": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "AI Strategy 2025: existing laws, voluntary guidance, no AI-specific law", "with_others_note": "Cabinet adopted OECD AI Principles (June 2024); strategy stresses alignment", "sources": [ { "title": "DLA Piper, Quick on the uptake: New Zealand's new strategic approach to artificial intelligence", "url": "https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2025/07/quick-on-the-uptake-new-zealand-s-new-strategic-approach-to-artificial-intelligence", "date": "2025-07-09" }, { "title": "NCSC, Cyber Threat Report 2025: incident reporting analysis", "url": "https://www.ncsc.govt.nz/insights-and-research/cyber-threat-reports/cyber-threat-report-2025/incident-reporting-analysis/", "date": "2025-12-01" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Funded biosecurity system; Biosecurity Act amendment bill scheduled for 2026; adaptation cost-sharing deferred.", "with_others_note": "In Paris with a 2035 NDC; $100m for 2025; no new multi-year package.", "sources": [ { "title": "MPI, Proposed amendments to the Biosecurity Act", "url": "https://www.mpi.govt.nz/proposed-amendments-to-the-biosecurity-act", "date": "2026-06-19" }, { "title": "RNZ, Climate finance cut to $100m as $1.3b package ends (Budget 2025)", "url": "https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/561945/pacific", "date": "2025-05-23" }, { "title": "Oxfam Aotearoa, COP30 reaction: NZ must deliver", "url": "https://www.oxfam.org.nz/news-media/media-releases/cop30-reaction-nz-must-deliver/", "date": "2025-11-24" }, { "title": "Climate Change Response Act 2002", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/whole.html", "date": "2026-10-19" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "Interim plan, surveillance strategy, Health Act review; extras need new funding", "with_others_note": "Rejected 2024 IHR amendments; Pandemic Agreement awaits national interest test", "sources": [ { "title": "Ministry of Health, Preparing for future pandemics", "url": "https://www.health.govt.nz/strategies-initiatives/programmes-and-initiatives/emergency-management/pandemics/preparing-for-future-pandemics", "date": "2026-07-21" }, { "title": "1News, Govt accepts most Covid inquiry recommendations with some caveats", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/07/29/govt-accepts-most-covid-inquiry-recommendations-with-some-caveats/", "date": "2026-07-29" }, { "title": "Ministry of Health, Amending the International Health Regulations (2005)", "url": "https://www.health.govt.nz/strategies-initiatives/programmes-and-initiatives/emergency-management/pandemics/strengthening-global-pandemic-prevention-preparedness-and-response/amending-the-international-health-regulations-2005", "date": "2026-03-17" } ] }, "R4": { "home": "Funded plan", "with_others": "Funded plan", "home_note": "Defence Capability Plan: $12b over four years, cyber and space, in Budget baselines.", "with_others_note": "Five Eyes, Anzac integration and Pacific aid funded; party to TPNW; nuclear-free law kept.", "sources": [ { "title": "Ministry of Defence, Defence Capability Plan released", "url": "https://defence.govt.nz/news/defence-capability-plan-released", "date": "2025-04-07" }, { "title": "DPMC, Secure Together: New Zealand's National Security Strategy 2023", "url": "https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security/national-security-strategy", "date": "2023-08-04" }, { "title": "New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act 1987", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1987/0086/latest/whole.html", "date": "2026-10-19" }, { "title": "MFAT, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons", "url": "https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/peace-rights-and-security/disarmament/nuclear-disarmament/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons", "date": "2018-07-31" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Foreign interference offences in force; under-16 bill only introduced", "with_others_note": "NSS 2023 names disinformation, interference; Five Eyes intelligence partnership", "sources": [ { "title": "Ministry of Justice, Countering foreign interference", "url": "https://justice.govt.nz/justice-sector-policy/key-initiatives/countering-foreign-interference", "date": "2025-11-27" }, { "title": "DPMC, New Zealand's National Security Strategy: Secure Together Tō Tātou Korowai Manaaki", "url": "https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security/new-zealands-national-security-strategy", "date": "2023-08-04" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "Status quo (current settings)", "C1": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Three-year term in law. Government's four-year term bill passed first reading 117 to 6, reported back, then parked in February 2026; no referendum.", "sources": [ { "title": "Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, as introduced", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/government/2025/128/en/2025-02-27", "date": "2025-02-27" }, { "title": "1News, Referendum on four-year election term ditched by Government", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/02/18/referendum-on-four-year-election-term-ditched-by-government", "date": "2026-02-18" } ], "flag": "Torn between Plans and Committed: the bill was voted for at first reading, but the Government shelved it in February 2026, so nothing is in force. Took the lower. Committee dropped the opposition-chairs safeguard." }, "C2": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Government ran a cross-party process on the 30-year National Infrastructure Plan: its June 2026 response carries Labour and Green forewords. No standing accord or group.", "sources": [ { "title": "The Spinoff, We finally have a national infrastructure plan, and both sides of the House agree on it", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/16-06-2026/we-finally-have-a-national-infrastructure-plan-and-both-sides-of-the-house-agree-on-it", "date": "2026-06-16" }, { "title": "Transporting NZ, National Infrastructure Plan gains cross-party backing", "url": "https://www.transporting.nz/national-infrastructure-plan-gains-cross-party-backing/", "date": "2026-06-17" } ], "flag": "A shared response document, not a signed accord. Bishop's March 2025 bid for common ground on RMA replacement drew no Labour agreement.", "calibration": "Committed to Plans: a concrete cross-party process with a vehicle (the response) took place, but no accord, strategy or group is in place to carry it forward (rule B)" }, "C3": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Te Waihanga and its plan, the Climate Change Commission and emissions budgets, Reserve Bank independence and Treasury long-term statements stand; the Productivity Commission was abolished in 2024 with no successor.", "sources": [ { "title": "New Zealand Productivity Commission Act Repeal Act 2024", "url": "https://legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2024/1/en/latest/", "date": "2024-02-05" }, { "title": "The Spinoff, We finally have a national infrastructure plan, and both sides of the House agree on it", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/16-06-2026/we-finally-have-a-national-infrastructure-plan-and-both-sides-of-the-house-agree-on-it", "date": "2026-06-16" }, { "title": "Climate Change Response Act 2002 (as amended by the Zero Carbon Amendment Act 2019)", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/whole.html", "date": "2026-10-19" } ], "flag": "Torn between Committed and Plans; took the lower. Not Weakens, because the abolished body was one of several and the plan-holding bodies (Te Waihanga, Climate Change Commission) stand. The 2026 Super Fund contribution was redirected to the Elevate fund, with the formula resuming in 2027.", "calibration": "Weakens to Plans: weighed overall (rule C), most long-term bodies remain in force, which alone would be Committed; the Productivity Commission abolition pulls it one step down, not to Weakens" }, "C4": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Keeps net zero 2050, Paris, the Super Fund formula from 2027 and the NIP; RMA and Three Waters replaced; methane target cut, not dropped.", "sources": [ { "title": "Climate Change Response Act 2002 (as amended by the Zero Carbon Amendment Act 2019)", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/whole.html", "date": "2026-10-19" }, { "title": "National, Government sets methane targets for 2050", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/20251012-hon-todd-mcclay-government-sets-methane-targets-for-2050", "date": "2025-10-12" }, { "title": "Budget 2026, Fiscal Strategy Report, Annex 4: Contributions to the NZ Superannuation Fund", "url": "https://budget.govt.nz/budget/2026/fiscal-strategy-report/annex-4.htm", "date": "2026-05-28" }, { "title": "The Spinoff, We finally have a national infrastructure plan, and both sides of the House agree on it", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/16-06-2026/we-finally-have-a-national-infrastructure-plan-and-both-sides-of-the-house-agree-on-it", "date": "2026-06-16" } ], "flag": "Torn between Plans and Committed: some replacements (RMA) are not yet in force, and some repeals (Smokefree generation, Auckland light rail) had no like-for-like alternative. The 2026 Super Fund contribution ($61m) went to the Elevate fund instead." }, "since_19_oct": [], "checked_but_not_found": "Nothing rated Silent. Checked cal/G01 to G13 status_quo text, risk_R2 and R5, legislation.govt.nz, Budget 2026 and Te Waihanga's entity update (Dec 2024)." } }, { "id": "national", "name": "National", "is_baseline": false, "display_name": "National", "colour": "#0072CE", "poll_average": 29.8, "seats_projected": 36, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 65, "voter_priorities": 73, "readiness_band": "strong", "voter_band": "strong" }, "confidence": "Medium", "fiscal_detail": "Full plan", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 65, "real": 76, "lasting": 55 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P2": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P3": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Under-16 social media bill brings AI firms under online regulator", "with_others_note": "No international AI position in party documents", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Government moves to ban U16s from social media", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260826043303/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260824-christopherluxon", "date": "2026-08-24" }, { "title": "National, Building the Future: 47-point plan to support small businesses (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261007034501/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%E2%80%99s%2047-point%20plan%20to%20support%20Small%20Businesses.pdf?v=1791324870", "date": "2026-10-07" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Funded plan", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Biosecurity Act rewrite and tougher border penalties; $10m Critical Agri Inputs fund from existing fund.", "with_others_note": "Backs Paris; ratify High Seas Treaty; fertiliser supply deals; Pacific aid protected.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Growing more to feed the world (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Growing%20More%20to%20Feed%20the%20World.pdf?v=1792108210", "date": "2026-10-16" }, { "title": "National, National's plan for healthy fisheries", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/261010-toddmcclay", "date": "2026-10-10" }, { "title": "National, More medicines and earlier care", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/more-medicines-and-earlier-care", "date": "2026-10-06" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "Owns Covid inquiry response; Biosecurity Act amendments, higher border penalties", "with_others_note": "Its minister rejected IHR amendments citing process; no alternative stated", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Government responds to COVID-19 Inquiry", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/20260729-honsimeonbrown", "date": "2026-07-29" }, { "title": "National, Growing more to feed the world (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018201850/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Growing%20More%20to%20Feed%20the%20World.pdf?v=1792108210", "date": "2026-10-16" }, { "title": "Victoria University of Wellington, NZ's rejection of new WHO pandemic rules makes 'no real sense'", "url": "https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/news/2026/04/nzs-rejection-of-new-who-pandemic-rules-makes-no-real-sense", "date": "2026-04-09" } ] }, "R4": { "home": "Funded plan", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Led the funded Defence Capability Plan, 'the floor, not the ceiling'; no 2026 policy.", "with_others_note": "Anzac force integration with Australia; nuclear-free stance 'won't be changing' (Luxon); Pacific aid protected.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Multi-billion dollar Defence plan unveiled", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/20250407-multibilliondollardefenceplan", "date": "2025-04-07" }, { "title": "Asia Pacific Report, Luxon says NZ's nuclear-free stance not changing", "url": "https://asiapacificreport.nz/2026/06/02/non-negotiable-christopher-luxon-says-nzs-nuclear-free-stance-not-changing/", "date": "2026-06-02" }, { "title": "National, More medicines and earlier care", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/policies/more-medicines-and-earlier-care", "date": "2026-10-06" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Funded plan", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Election policy costing unit, $1.2m in fiscal plan; online regulator", "with_others_note": "No international position on trust or interference in party documents", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269", "date": "2026-10-12" }, { "title": "National, Government moves to ban U16s from social media", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260826043303/https://www.national.org.nz/news/260824-christopherluxon", "date": "2026-08-24" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "National", "C1": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Sponsored the four-year term bill and voted for it at first reading (2025), then parked it; says a future government might hold the referendum.", "sources": [ { "title": "Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, as introduced", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/government/2025/128/en/2025-02-27", "date": "2025-02-27" }, { "title": "1News, Referendum on four-year election term ditched by Government", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/02/18/referendum-on-four-year-election-term-ditched-by-government", "date": "2026-02-18" } ], "flag": "Sponsored and voted for the bill, but shelved it in February 2026 (Goldsmith: could be considered if re-elected) and its 2026 policy documents make no term pledge before the cut-off. Vote without a current stated position is Plans (rule A). Luxon's referendum backing came on 20 October (since_19_oct)." }, "C2": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Led the cross-party response to the Infrastructure Plan; Bishop commits to building bipartisan consensus on infrastructure best practice for a second term.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Hon Chris Bishop's speech to Building Nations 2026", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/260820-hon-chris-bishops-speech-to-building-nat", "date": "2026-08-20" }, { "title": "The Spinoff, We finally have a national infrastructure plan, and both sides of the House agree on it", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/16-06-2026/we-finally-have-a-national-infrastructure-plan-and-both-sides-of-the-house-agree-on-it", "date": "2026-06-16" } ], "flag": "Torn between Plans and Committed: the June 2026 response was a done cross-party process, but the second-term offer is general, with no named accord. Took the lower. Nothing on cross-party climate, fiscal or tax plans." }, "C3": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Keeps the independent 30-year Infrastructure Plan; Te Waihanga to benchmark costs and review capital plans by 2028; costings unit ($1.2m) in fiscal plan.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Building the Future: National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287", "date": "2026-09-28" }, { "title": "National, Hon Chris Bishop's speech to Building Nations 2026", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/260820-hon-chris-bishops-speech-to-building-nat", "date": "2026-08-20" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269", "date": "2026-10-12" } ], "flag": "Party rated on its own proposals (rule C); the 2024 Productivity Commission abolition sits in the status quo row. The costings unit is costed but its independence is not stated, so not Committed." }, "C4": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Keeps net zero 2050 and Paris, endorses the Infrastructure Plan, keeps Super Fund contributions in its baseline; replaces the RMA and NCEA.", "sources": [ { "title": "National, Government sets methane targets for 2050", "url": "https://www.national.org.nz/news/20251012-hon-todd-mcclay-government-sets-methane-targets-for-2050", "date": "2025-10-12" }, { "title": "National, Growing more to feed the world (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018201850/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/Growing%20More%20to%20Feed%20the%20World.pdf?v=1792108210", "date": "2026-10-16" }, { "title": "National, Building the Future: National's Economic Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260929235719/https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National%27s%20Economic%20Plan.pdf?v=1790557287", "date": "2026-09-28" }, { "title": "National, Fiscal Plan (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.national.org.nz/web/prod/National's%20Fiscal%20Plan.pdf?v=1791759269", "date": "2026-10-12" } ], "flag": "Paris support is taken via Policy.nz's summary of the Growing More PDF; confirm wording. Super Fund contributions inferred from a fiscal plan built on PREFU 2026 with no change listed." }, "since_19_oct": [ "National: Luxon backed a referendum on a four-year term at the final leaders' debate on 20 October (1News, Chris v Chris: no mistake, no magic moment, 21 Oct 2026, https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/21/chris-v-chris-no-mistake-no-magic-moment/). Not rated." ], "checked_but_not_found": "Nothing rated Silent. Checked national.org.nz policies, the Economic Plan and Fiscal Plan PDFs (four-year term, cross-party, Super Fund, Paris terms), cal/G01 to G13, risk_R2, risk_R5." } }, { "id": "labour", "name": "Labour", "is_baseline": false, "display_name": "Labour", "colour": "#D82C20", "poll_average": 27.9, "seats_projected": 33, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 56, "voter_priorities": 61, "readiness_band": "fair", "voter_band": "fair" }, "confidence": "Medium", "fiscal_detail": "Full plan, checked by a firm Labour hired", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 62, "real": 55, "lasting": 50 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Partly" }, "P2": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Partly" }, "P3": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Partly" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Office of AI in DPMC, online safety regulator, deepfake ban; uncosted", "with_others_note": "Align AI standards with Australia; Pacific work on shared security", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, AI in New Zealand's interests", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/ai-for-new-zealand", "date": "2026-09-09" }, { "title": "Labour, Safer online (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018220554/https://www.labour.org.nz/safer-online", "date": "2026-10-19" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Says climate, conflict and migration cross borders; no domestic knock-on preparedness measure.", "with_others_note": "Stay in Paris; Pacific deal on adaptation and displacement; aid to 0.7% uncosted.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/", "date": "2026-09-23" }, { "title": "Labour, Speech: New Zealand, an independent voice in the world", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-new-zealand-an-independent-voice-in-the-world/", "date": "2026-09-23" }, { "title": "Labour, Labour to accelerate climate action", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-accelerate-climate-action/", "date": "2026-09-08" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Silent", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "No pandemic preparedness policy found by the cut-off", "with_others_note": "No WHO or pandemic cooperation position found", "sources": [] }, "R4": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Backs the government's defence spending rise; no defence measure of its own.", "with_others_note": "No AUKUS; keep UN, ICJ and ICC; back Ukraine; aid to 0.7% uncosted.", "sources": [ { "title": "1News, Future Labour govt won't join AUKUS, Hipkins says", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/12/01/hipkins-rules-out-labour-joining-aukus-in-future-government/", "date": "2024-12-01" }, { "title": "Asia Pacific Report, Luxon says NZ's nuclear-free stance not changing", "url": "https://asiapacificreport.nz/2026/06/02/non-negotiable-christopher-luxon-says-nzs-nuclear-free-stance-not-changing/", "date": "2026-06-02" }, { "title": "Labour, Speech: Labour's foreign policy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-labours-foreign-policy/", "date": "2026-09-23" }, { "title": "Labour, Speech: New Zealand, an independent voice in the world", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-new-zealand-an-independent-voice-in-the-world/", "date": "2026-09-23" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Parliamentary Budget Office, same-day enrolment, digital regulator, deepfake rules", "with_others_note": "No international position on trust or interference found", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Labour will back Kiwis and grow the economy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824014918/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-back-kiwis-and-grow-the-economy/", "date": "2026-08-23" }, { "title": "Labour, National is making it harder to vote", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-national-is-making-it-harder-to-vote/", "date": "2026-07-24" }, { "title": "Labour, Safer online (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261018220554/https://www.labour.org.nz/safer-online", "date": "2026-10-19" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "Labour", "C1": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Voted for the four-year term bill at first reading (all 34 MPs, March 2025). No current stated position or safeguards found before 19 October.", "sources": [ { "title": "Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, bill page and first reading vote (117 to 6; Labour 34 and Greens 15 for)", "url": "https://bills.parliament.nz/v/6/D259D3B7-961B-4D71-C262-08DD56A9BDE4", "date": "2025-03-05" }, { "title": "Wikipedia, Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, citing Hansard Vol. 780, 5 March 2025 ('Voting: Te Pāti Māori Votes'; National 49, Labour 34, Green 15, ACT 11, NZ First 8 for; Te Pāti Māori 6 against)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_of_Parliament_(Enabling_4-year_Term)_Legislation_Amendment_Bill", "date": "2025-03-05" } ], "flag": "Rests on the March 2025 vote only; no current position before 19 October found.", "calibration": "Committed to Plans: a first-reading vote alone is Plans under rule A; Hipkins' referendum backing was 20 October, so not rated" }, "C2": { "rating": "Acknowledges", "note": "Wrote a foreword endorsing the Government response to the 30-year National Infrastructure Plan; proposes no cross-party mechanism of its own.", "sources": [ { "title": "ODT/RNZ, 30-year Infrastructure Plan gets widespread support in Parliament (Labour and Green forewords to the Government response)", "url": "https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/30-year-infrastructure-plan-gets-widespread-support-parliament-rnz", "date": "2026-06-16" }, { "title": "Engineering New Zealand, Infrastructure plan gains cross-party support", "url": "https://www.engineeringnz.org/news-insights/infrastructure-plan-gains-cross-party-support/", "date": "2026-06-19" } ], "flag": "Pledge to honour contracted, underway and funded infrastructure is counted under C4, not here.", "calibration": "Committed to Acknowledges: a foreword to a government document is endorsement, not a party-proposed cross-party mechanism (rule B)" }, "C3": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Would create an independent Parliamentary Budget Office and an independent curriculum council; restores wellbeing reporting; Future Fund run by the Super Fund Guardians.", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour, Fiscal Strategy", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/fiscal-strategy", "date": "2026-08-23" }, { "title": "interest.co.nz, Labour pledges return to surplus and independent Parliamentary Budget Office", "url": "https://interest.co.nz/economy/139932/labour-pledges-debt-return-return-surplus-and-independent-parliamentary-budget", "date": "2026-08-23" }, { "title": "1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/17/labour-says-it-will-set-up-body-to-oversee-nzs-school-curriculum/", "date": "2026-09-17" } ], "flag": "PBO not itemised in the 4 October fiscal plan, so not Committed (consistent with risk_R5 flag). Reserve Bank dual mandate is a mandate change, not a cut to independence; not counted against." }, "C4": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Keeps net zero and Paris. Each repeal names a replacement: Investment Boost (small-firm write-off), disability law (co-designed law), curriculum (independent council).", "sources": [ { "title": "Labour to accelerate climate action (stays in Paris; ETS review)", "url": "https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-to-accelerate-climate-action/", "date": "2026-09-08" }, { "title": "Labour, Small Business Action Plan (repeal Investment Boost; $10,000 write-off)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813015958/https://www.labour.org.nz/small-business-action-plan", "date": "2026-08-11" }, { "title": "Labour will scrap harmful disability Bill", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260824025729/https://www.labour.org.nz/news/release-labour-will-scrap-harmful-disability-bill/", "date": "2026-07-02" }, { "title": "Deloitte, Election survey 2026: infrastructure (Labour to honour what is contracted, underway and already funded)", "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/nz/en/Industries/government-public/perspectives/election-survey-2026-infrastructure.html", "date": "2026-09-15" } ], "flag": "Infrastructure: honours contracted, underway and funded projects, but Hipkins says early-stage contested projects are likely to be discontinued without named alternatives. Judged a stated rule rather than scrapping; if read strictly, Acknowledges. Reinstating the offshore exploration ban reverses current settings but drops no long-term commitment." }, "since_19_oct": [ "Labour: Hipkins backs a referendum on a four-year parliamentary term (final leaders' debate, 20 October). Source: 1News, Chris v Chris: no mistake, no magic moment, 21 October 2026, https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/21/chris-v-chris-no-mistake-no-magic-moment/", "Labour: Hipkins says NZ Super eligibility stays at 65 (final Stuff leaders' debate, 20 October). Source: 1News, 21 October 2026, https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/21/chris-v-chris-no-mistake-no-magic-moment/" ], "checked_but_not_found": "No Silent ratings. Looked for Labour safeguards (select committees, opposition chairs) and post-select-committee statements on the four-year term: labour.org.nz fiscal strategy and policy pages, bills.parliament.nz, 1News on the February 2026 deferral, NZ Initiative commentary (30 January 2026). None found." } }, { "id": "greens", "name": "Greens", "is_baseline": false, "display_name": "Greens", "colour": "#007041", "poll_average": 15.2, "seats_projected": 18, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 46, "voter_priorities": 44, "readiness_band": "weak", "voter_band": "weak" }, "confidence": "Low", "fiscal_detail": "Tax package", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 60, "real": 31, "lasting": 44 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P2": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P3": { "effect": "Builds", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Builds", "lasts": "Unlikely" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "AI office then independent commission, labelling, high-risk audits; uncosted", "with_others_note": "Back international autonomous weapons ban; align with EU AI Act", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041", "date": "2026-10-12" }, { "title": "Green Party, Digital Technology (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024350/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_digital_technology", "date": "2026-08-13" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Resilience standards for utilities; food system rules; stronger biosecurity; seed banks; uncosted.", "with_others_note": "Restore Pacific climate finance; loss and damage; protect displaced people; CBD; uncosted.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Climate Action: Resilience and Adaptation", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_climate_action_resilience_adaptation", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "Green Party, Biodiversity and Environmental Regeneration Policy", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/biodiversity_environmental_regeneration_policy", "date": "2026-08-28" }, { "title": "Green Party, Pacific Peoples", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_pacific_peoples", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "Green Party, Climate Change Policy", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/climate_change_policy", "date": "2026-08-31" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Wants resourced health system for pandemics, vigorous biosecurity; no measure", "with_others_note": "No WHO or pandemic cooperation position found", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Covid Inquiry report underlines need to invest in Health", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/covid_inquiry_report_underlines_need_to_invest_in_health", "date": "2024-11-28" }, { "title": "Green Party, Biodiversity and Environmental Regeneration Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260827221752/https://www.greens.org.nz/biodiversity_environmental_regeneration_policy", "date": "2026-03-09" } ] }, "R4": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Refocus Defence Force on climate, humanitarian work and monitoring; never buy autonomous weapons; uncosted.", "with_others_note": "Leave Five Eyes; no AUKUS; back autonomous weapons ban; oppose Pacific militarisation.", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Global Affairs and Trade", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_global_affairs_and_trade", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041", "date": "2026-10-12" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "$30,000 donation cap, lobbyist register, digital duty of care, public media", "with_others_note": "Build on the Christchurch Call with like-minded countries; no measure", "sources": [ { "title": "Green Party, Greens announce plans to get big money and influence out of politics", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260922021224/https://www.greens.org.nz/greens_announce_plan_to_get_big_money_and_influence_out_of_politics", "date": "2026-09-22" }, { "title": "Green Party, Digital Technology (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024350/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_digital_technology", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "Green Party, Culture and Creativity (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023538/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_culture_and_creativity", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/beachheroes/pages/97177/attachments/original/1791760041/AI_policy_2026_WEBSITE.pdf?1791760041", "date": "2026-10-12" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "Greens", "C1": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "All 15 Green MPs voted for the four-year term bill at first reading (March 2025). No current stated position or safeguards found before 19 October.", "sources": [ { "title": "Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, bill page and first reading vote (117 to 6; Labour 34 and Greens 15 for)", "url": "https://bills.parliament.nz/v/6/D259D3B7-961B-4D71-C262-08DD56A9BDE4", "date": "2025-03-05" }, { "title": "Wikipedia, Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, citing Hansard Vol. 780, 5 March 2025 ('Voting: Te Pāti Māori Votes'; National 49, Labour 34, Green 15, ACT 11, NZ First 8 for; Te Pāti Māori 6 against)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_of_Parliament_(Enabling_4-year_Term)_Legislation_Amendment_Bill", "date": "2025-03-05" } ], "flag": "Rests on the March 2025 vote only; no current position before 19 October found.", "calibration": "Committed to Plans: a first-reading vote alone is Plans under rule A" }, "C2": { "rating": "Acknowledges", "note": "Wrote a foreword to the Government response to the National Infrastructure Plan, backing its 16 recommendations; proposes no cross-party mechanism of its own.", "sources": [ { "title": "ODT/RNZ, 30-year Infrastructure Plan gets widespread support in Parliament (Labour and Green forewords to the Government response)", "url": "https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/30-year-infrastructure-plan-gets-widespread-support-parliament-rnz", "date": "2026-06-16" }, { "title": "Engineering New Zealand, Infrastructure plan gains cross-party support", "url": "https://www.engineeringnz.org/news-insights/infrastructure-plan-gains-cross-party-support/", "date": "2026-06-19" } ], "flag": "The Greens dispute parts of the Government's response (new state highways, LNG terminal, investment assurance exemptions).", "calibration": "Committed to Acknowledges: a foreword is endorsement of a government document, not a party-proposed mechanism (rule B)" }, "C3": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Ties ETS to Climate Change Commission advice, Budgets to emissions targets, NDC cost in Crown accounts; follows Infrastructure Commission transit options.", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Climate Action: Emissions Reduction (via Policy.nz)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813023241/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2020_climate_action_emissions_reduction", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "Greens, Green Party launches the transport plan to combat fossil fuel crisis", "url": "https://www.greens.org.nz/green_party_launches_the_transport_plan_to_combat_fossil_fuel_crisis", "date": "2026-10-04" }, { "title": "ODT/RNZ, 30-year Infrastructure Plan gets widespread support in Parliament (Labour and Green forewords to the Government response)", "url": "https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/30-year-infrastructure-plan-gets-widespread-support-parliament-rnz", "date": "2026-06-16" } ], "flag": "Proposals are not legislated or costed, so not Committed. 'No arbitrary fiscal limits' and public finance reform around wellbeing do not abolish any independent body; not counted against." }, "C4": { "rating": "Acknowledges", "note": "Keeps and tightens net zero and Paris and backs the Infrastructure Plan; would repeal Fast-track and revoke mining consents, with only a loose alternative (revive parts of NBEA and Spatial Planning Act).", "sources": [ { "title": "Greens, Environmental Protection manifesto (repeal Fast-track; revoke new coal, gold and seabed mining consents)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813024927/https://www.greens.org.nz/manifesto_2026_environmental_protection", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "ODT, Greens pledge to revoke Otago fast-track mining projects", "url": "https://www.odt.co.nz/business/greens-pledge-revoke-otago-fast-track-mining-projects", "date": "2025-11-16" }, { "title": "Waatea News, RMA reform battle intensifies as Government and Greens clash over planning future", "url": "https://waateanews.com/?p=164834", "date": "2026-07-21" } ], "flag": "Contestable: if Fast-track is read as a long-term commitment with no alternative, Weakens; if the NBEA revival counts as a concrete alternative, Plans. Curriculum and NCEA 'reset' also names no replacement.", "calibration": "Weakens to Acknowledges: core long-term commitments are kept; the Fast-track repeal has a stated alternative but no vehicle or detail, which rule D rates Acknowledges, not Weakens" }, "since_19_oct": [], "checked_but_not_found": "No Silent ratings. Looked for Green safeguards for a four-year term, a Green replacement for Fast-track consenting, and post-19 October Green statements: Policy.nz packs (G06, G10, G11), cal/G*.json, risk_R*.json, master_v3 ch3 and ch5, ODT, Waatea, 1News. greens.org.nz pages could not be fetched directly (blocked); used archived copies cited in the evidence packs." } }, { "id": "act", "name": "ACT", "is_baseline": false, "display_name": "ACT", "colour": "#FFDF00", "poll_average": 10.0, "seats_projected": 12, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 58, "voter_priorities": 56, "readiness_band": "fair", "voter_band": "fair" }, "confidence": "Low", "fiscal_detail": "Full plan", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 60, "real": 65, "lasting": 49 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Builds", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P2": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P3": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Unlikely" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "Seymour: someone in government should own AI policy; no measure", "with_others_note": "Seymour: be a fast follower of overseas AI regulation", "sources": [ { "title": "1News, Analysis: AI has finally entered the election campaign arena", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/04/analysis-ai-has-finally-entered-the-election-campaign-arena/", "date": "2026-10-04" }, { "title": "1News, Election 2026: What parties say about the threat of AI to fool voters", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/02/10/election-2026-what-parties-say-about-the-threat-of-ai-to-fool-voters", "date": "2026-02-10" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Silent", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "No measure found on food, biosecurity or other global climate knock-ons.", "with_others_note": "Split-gas NDC with targets tied to trading partners; aid cut to 2017 levels.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Paris Needs to Change", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/paris", "date": "2026-08-11" }, { "title": "ACT, Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax (PDF)", "url": "https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37031/attachments/original/1788642905/Scrap_Net_Zero_policy_09.pdf?1788642905", "date": "2026-09-06" }, { "title": "ACT, New Zealand can't keep exporting taxpayers' money", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/new-zealand-can-t-keep-exporting-taxpayers-money", "date": "2026-10-10" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Silent", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Comments on past lockdowns only; no preparedness policy", "with_others_note": "No WHO or pandemic cooperation position found", "sources": [ { "title": "The Spinoff, The second Covid report is out, now Winston Peters wants another one", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/12-03-2026/the-second-covid-report-is-out-now-winston-peters-wants-another-one", "date": "2026-03-12" } ] }, "R4": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "Called for 2% of GDP on defence, now met by current plan; backs the rise.", "with_others_note": "Calls nuclear-free stance fair; keeps Ukraine aid; no alliance or arms control measure.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Finally NZ can be taken seriously on defence", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/finally-nz-can-be-taken-seriously-on-defence", "date": "2025-04-07" }, { "title": "Asia Pacific Report, Luxon says NZ's nuclear-free stance not changing", "url": "https://asiapacificreport.nz/2026/06/02/non-negotiable-christopher-luxon-says-nzs-nuclear-free-stance-not-changing/", "date": "2026-06-02" }, { "title": "ACT, New Zealand can't keep exporting taxpayers' money", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/new-zealand-can-t-keep-exporting-taxpayers-money", "date": "2026-10-10" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Bar regulators disciplining lawful speech; Electoral Commission to police misinformation", "with_others_note": "No international position found by the cut-off", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Let small business get on with business (PDF)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260915041430/https://assets.nationbuilder.com/actnz/pages/37328/attachments/original/1789360133/Let_small_business_get_on_with_business.pdf?1789360133", "date": "2026-09-15" }, { "title": "1News, Election 2026: What parties say about the threat of AI to fool voters", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/02/10/election-2026-what-parties-say-about-the-threat-of-ai-to-fool-voters", "date": "2026-02-10" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "ACT", "C1": { "rating": "Committed", "note": "Backs a four-year term with opposition control of select committees as the safeguard; all 11 MPs voted for the 2025 bill's first reading.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, ACT has the four year term solution", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-has-the-four-year-term-solution", "date": "2021-10-04" }, { "title": "Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill (first reading 5 March 2025, 117 to 6; ACT 11 for; ACT minority view on its optional model at select committee, 25 August 2025)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_of_Parliament_(Enabling_4-year_Term)_Legislation_Amendment_Bill", "date": "2025-08-25" }, { "title": "1News, 'You poor thing': Six big moments from the Multi-Party Debate (Seymour: a referendum on 'going to a four-year term')", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/14/you-poor-thing-six-big-moments-from-the-multi-party-debate/", "date": "2026-10-13" } ], "flag": "Committed rests on the 2025 vote, the August 2025 select committee minority view and Seymour's 13 October debate answer (referendum on going to a four-year term), all before the cut-off. No 2026 ACT policy page on the term found." }, "C2": { "rating": "Silent", "note": "No offer found to build long-term policy with other parties through an accord, cross-party strategy or shared target.", "sources": [], "flag": "It rules out Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, but coalition stances do not count, so not Weakens." }, "C3": { "rating": "Weakens", "note": "Would abolish the Climate Change Commission, folding its monitoring into a ministry (MCERT), and keep NZ Super Fund contributions suspended to 2031.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, ACT to scrap costly climate bureaucracy, abolish the Climate Change Commission", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/news/act-to-scrap-costly-climate-bureaucracy-abolish-the-climate-change-commission", "date": "2026-08-26" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (pp. 9 to 10: 'maintain the suspension of contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund')", "url": "https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-10/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf", "date": "2026-10-11" } ], "flag": "Moving the Commission's job into a ministry is a stated alternative, but the scale names abolishing an independent long-term body as Weakens. ACT's push for published lowest-cost options on major transport projects (Keep New Zealand Moving) is a process gain but does not offset this. No position found on Te Waihanga or an independent fiscal institution." }, "C4": { "rating": "Acknowledges", "note": "Scraps net zero for a cap tied to trading partners (no number, method or bill); renegotiates Paris; pairs the Super Fund pause with a Super age rise.", "sources": [ { "title": "ACT, Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax", "url": "https://www.act.org.nz/scrap-net-zero-cut-the-carbon-tax", "date": "2026-09-06" }, { "title": "1News, ACT pledges to scrap country's net zero target", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/06/act-pledges-to-scrap-countrys-net-zero-target/", "date": "2026-09-06" }, { "title": "ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (Super age to 67 by 2035; Super Fund suspension maintained)", "url": "https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-10/ACT_2026_Fiscal_Plan.pdf", "date": "2026-10-11" } ], "flag": "ACT also says New Zealand 'should be prepared to leave' Paris if renegotiation fails. The Super age rise is a concrete, costed vehicle, but net zero's replacement is not.", "calibration": "Plans to Acknowledges: the net zero replacement is a stated alternative with no number or vehicle, which rule D rates Acknowledges" }, "since_19_oct": [], "checked_but_not_found": "C2: act.org.nz policy pages and news (Fiscal Plan 2026, Scrap Net Zero, Keep New Zealand Moving, Paris Needs to Change), cal/G01 to G13 and risk_R1 to R5 ACT entries, master_v3/ch5.md ACT profile, web searches for ACT or Seymour with cross-party, accord or bipartisan in 2026. No ACT position found on the National Infrastructure Plan (government response with Labour and Greens forewords, June 2026). Nothing for ACT found after 19 October." } }, { "id": "nz-first", "name": "NZ First", "is_baseline": false, "display_name": "NZ First", "colour": "#001F50", "poll_average": 9.9, "seats_projected": 12, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 33, "voter_priorities": 39, "readiness_band": "poor", "voter_band": "weak" }, "confidence": "Low", "fiscal_detail": "None", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 49, "real": 27, "lasting": 31 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Partly" }, "P2": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P3": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Unlikely" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Names deepfake threat; pledges to label own AI content only", "with_others_note": "No international AI position found", "sources": [ { "title": "1News, Election 2026: What parties say about the threat of AI to fool voters", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/02/10/election-2026-what-parties-say-about-the-threat-of-ai-to-fool-voters", "date": "2026-02-10" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Silent", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "No measure found on food, biosecurity or climate knock-ons; fuel survey is energy policy.", "with_others_note": "Withdraw from the Paris Agreement; no alternative cooperation proposed.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Policy index (includes 'We Will Withdraw From The Paris Accord')", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy", "date": "2026-10-19" }, { "title": "Policy.nz 2026", "url": "https://policy.nz/", "date": "2026-10-21" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "Seeks vaccine injury inquiry; no preparedness measure", "with_others_note": "Campaigned for, then delivered, rejection of IHR amendments", "sources": [ { "title": "The Spinoff, The second Covid report is out, now Winston Peters wants another one", "url": "https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/12-03-2026/the-second-covid-report-is-out-now-winston-peters-wants-another-one", "date": "2026-03-12" }, { "title": "Chris Lynch Media, Government rejects WHO pandemic rule changes", "url": "https://www.chrislynchmedia.com/news-items/government-rejects-who-pandemic-rule-changes/", "date": "2026-03-17" } ] }, "R4": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "$1b subsurface survey for fuel security, citing geopolitical supply risk; no funding source.", "with_others_note": "No alliance, arms control or Pacific security position found in party documents.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Future Proofing our Fuel Security", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/future_proofing_our_fuel_security", "date": "2026-10-19" }, { "title": "NZ First, Policy index (includes 'We Will Withdraw From The Paris Accord')", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy", "date": "2026-10-19" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Citizens-only voting; binding referendum on the Māori seats", "with_others_note": "No international position on trust or interference found", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Citizen's Only Voting", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/citizens_only_voting", "date": "2026-08-27" }, { "title": "NZ First, Referendum on Māori Seats", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260813014751/https://www.nzfirst.nz/referendum_on_maori_seats", "date": "2026-08-13" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "NZ First", "C1": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "All 8 MPs voted for the bill at first reading (March 2025); Peters named a four-year term referendum at the 13 October debate, without stating a position or safeguards.", "sources": [ { "title": "Wikipedia, Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, citing Hansard Vol. 780, 5 March 2025 ('Voting: Te Pāti Māori Votes'; National 49, Labour 34, Green 15, ACT 11, NZ First 8 for; Te Pāti Māori 6 against)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_of_Parliament_(Enabling_4-year_Term)_Legislation_Amendment_Bill", "date": "2025-03-05" }, { "title": "RNZ, Government scraps plans for referendum on four-year term ('both coalition agreements secured support to get the bill to select committee but no further')", "url": "https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/587223/government-scraps-plans-for-referendum-on-four-year-term", "date": "2026-02-18" }, { "title": "1News, 'You poor thing': Six big moments from the Multi-Party Debate (debate 13 October 2026)", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/14/you-poor-thing-six-big-moments-from-the-multi-party-debate/", "date": "2026-10-13" } ], "flag": "Contestable. The vote was made under a coalition deal covering select committee only, and the debate answer names a referendum, not outright support; rule A counts a debate statement, so Committed. No safeguards proposed.", "calibration": "Plans to Committed: vote plus a debate statement before the cut-off meets Committed under rule A, matching ACT Main editor: Committed to Plans. Choosing a four-year term as a referendum topic is not a stated position for a four-year term; rule E (take the lower)." }, "C2": { "rating": "Silent", "note": "No offer found to build long-term policy with other parties through an accord, cross-party strategy or shared target.", "sources": [], "flag": "It rules out Labour and Te Pāti Māori, but coalition stances do not count, so not Weakens." }, "C3": { "rating": "Acknowledges", "note": "Proposes a $100b Future Fund 'ring-fenced from politicians' for a multi-decade build and a 30-year Population Plan, but neither has a governing body or vehicle.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/the_100bn_new_zealand_future_fund", "date": "2026-08-13" }, { "title": "NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (30-year Population Plan)", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/nz_first_announces_immigration_reform_policies", "date": "2026-09-11" }, { "title": "1News, Multi-Party Debate (Peters: windfall sovereign wealth fund on a 'Singapore-style model', not run by 'inexperienced politicians')", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/14/you-poor-thing-six-big-moments-from-the-multi-party-debate/", "date": "2026-10-13" } ], "flag": "The Future Fund page says the policy is at the 'investigate' stage (2024 remit) and names no board, Te Waihanga link or funding. No position found on the Climate Change Commission, Te Waihanga, an independent fiscal institution or Reserve Bank independence. Replacing the Waitangi Tribunal with a Completion Commission is a Treaty settlement body, not a long-term planning one, so not counted here." }, "C4": { "rating": "Weakens", "note": "Would leave the Paris Agreement (a bottom line) with no stated alternative commitment or target.", "sources": [ { "title": "NZ First, Policy index (includes 'We Will Withdraw From The Paris Accord')", "url": "https://www.nzfirst.nz/policy", "date": "2026-10-19" }, { "title": "1News, Peters takes crack at Luxon over Paris climate agreement stance", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/01/peters-takes-crack-at-luxon-over-paris-climate-agreement-stance/", "date": "2026-09-01" } ], "flag": "Its Paris page did not load for direct checking (same as risk_R2). It keeps the Super age at 65 (a bottom line), which honours that setting, but the Paris exit has no replacement, which the scale rates Weakens. No stated position on net zero 2050 or NZ Super Fund contributions." }, "since_19_oct": [], "checked_but_not_found": "C2: nzfirst.nz policy index and pages (Future Fund, immigration reform, Paris, Breaking up the Gentailers), cal/G01 to G13 and risk_R1 to R5 NZ First entries, master_v3/ch5.md NZ First profile, web searches for NZ First with cross-party, bipartisan, accord, Future Fund or Population Plan. No NZ First position found on the National Infrastructure Plan (June 2026 response). Nothing for NZ First found after 19 October." } }, { "id": "te-pati-maori", "name": "Te Pāti Māori", "is_baseline": false, "display_name": "Te Pāti Māori", "colour": "#181415", "poll_average": 1.5, "seats_projected": 2, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 35, "voter_priorities": 40, "readiness_band": "weak", "voter_band": "weak" }, "confidence": "Low", "fiscal_detail": "Tax package", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 44, "real": 29, "lasting": 32 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P2": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P3": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Neutral", "lasts": "Unlikely" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Names harm from fake AI images; wants disclosed, tikanga-consistent use", "with_others_note": "No international AI position found", "sources": [ { "title": "1News, Election 2026: What parties say about the threat of AI to fool voters", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/02/10/election-2026-what-parties-say-about-the-threat-of-ai-to-fool-voters", "date": "2026-02-10" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Names fossil import dependence and energy shocks; adaptation for at-risk communities is domestic.", "with_others_note": "No international climate, Pacific finance or biodiversity treaty position found.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Climate", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/climate", "date": "2026-06-03" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, We Want Cheaper Power and We Want Our People To Own It", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it", "date": "2026-09-16" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Silent", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "No pandemic preparedness policy found", "with_others_note": "No WHO or pandemic cooperation position found", "sources": [] }, "R4": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Focus Defence Force on protection, disaster response and the Pacific; uncosted.", "with_others_note": "Declare military neutrality and review all alliances, leaving those that undermine sovereignty.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Military Neutrality", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/military_neutrality", "date": "2026-06-03" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Acknowledges", "home_note": "Te Tiriti Commission as Officer of Parliament; constitutional convention", "with_others_note": "UNDRIP action plan within 100 days; indirect link to this risk", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf", "date": "2026-09-09" }, { "title": "1News, Election 2026: What parties say about the threat of AI to fool voters", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/02/10/election-2026-what-parties-say-about-the-threat-of-ai-to-fool-voters", "date": "2026-02-10" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "Te Pāti Māori", "C1": { "rating": "Weakens", "note": "Only party to vote against the four-year term bill at first reading (6 votes); Waititi said it would let governments 'run rampant'.", "sources": [ { "title": "Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, first reading vote 117 to 6 (bill page and vote record)", "url": "https://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/government/2025/128/en/latest", "date": "2025-03-05" }, { "title": "RNZ via Scoop, Four More Years? MPs Debate Bill To Extend Parliamentary Term", "url": "https://scoop.co.nz/stories/PO202503/S00047.htm", "date": "2025-03-09" }, { "title": "Wikipedia, Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, citing Hansard Vol. 780, 5 March 2025 ('Voting: Te Pāti Māori Votes'; National 49, Labour 34, Green 15, ACT 11, NZ First 8 for; Te Pāti Māori 6 against)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_of_Parliament_(Enabling_4-year_Term)_Legislation_Amendment_Bill", "date": "2025-03-05" } ], "flag": "Verified against Wikipedia's citation of Hansard (5 March 2025): the 6 noes were Te Pāti Māori's 6 MPs; 49+34+15+11+8 = 117 for. RNZ (via Scoop) confirms Te Pāti Māori sought to kill the bill. parliament.nz Hansard page did not load directly; one newsletter (Engage, 10 March 2025) wrongly says all parties voted for." }, "C2": { "rating": "Silent", "note": "No offer found to build long-term policy with other parties; coalition stance ('anyone serious about removing this Government') does not count.", "sources": [], "flag": "" }, "C3": { "rating": "Acknowledges", "note": "Proposes a Te Tiriti Commission (Officer of Parliament) and constitutional change by 2040; silent on existing long-term bodies.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2609/TIRITI_ENTRENCHMENT_POLICY.pdf", "date": "2026-09-09" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Climate", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818043455/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/climate", "date": "2026-06-03" } ], "flag": "Torn between Acknowledges and Plans. The Te Tiriti Commission is a concrete independent body with a statutory vehicle, but it enforces Treaty compliance rather than holding long-term plans; no position on Te Waihanga, the Climate Change Commission, Super Fund or a fiscal institution. Took the lower rating." }, "C4": { "rating": "Acknowledges", "note": "States no position on keeping net zero, Paris or Super Fund; where it reverses settings (prisons, Health NZ) it names alternatives.", "sources": [ { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Justice", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260818042919/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/justice", "date": "2026-08-18" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, Health policy (Manifesto 2026)", "url": "https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/health", "date": "2026-10-07" }, { "title": "Te Pāti Māori, We want cheaper power and we want our people to own it", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260921002528/https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/we_want_cheaper_power_and_we_want_our_people_to_own_it", "date": "2026-09-16" } ], "flag": "Torn between Silent and Plans. It drops no long-term commitment and names alternatives for what it changes (Māori-led justice authority by 2040, re-established Te Aka Whai Ora), which could support Plans; but it never states it keeps net zero, Paris, the infrastructure pipeline or Super Fund contributions, and its climate page links a full policy not read. Rated the middle, lower than Plans." }, "since_19_oct": [], "checked_but_not_found": "C2: maoriparty.org.nz policy pages (climate, Te Tiriti entrenchment, tax, health, economic development), cal/G01 to G13, risk_R1 to R5, master_v3/ch5.md, web searches for cross-party accords; 1News Multi-Party Debate report (13 Oct 2026) shows no cross-party offer and its referendum pick was Te Tiriti entrenchment, not term length. Nothing found after 19 October." } }, { "id": "opportunity", "name": "Opportunity", "is_baseline": false, "display_name": "Opportunity", "colour": "#00B9BC", "poll_average": 6.2, "seats_projected": 7, "scores": { "readiness_2050": 55, "voter_priorities": 58, "readiness_band": "fair", "voter_band": "fair" }, "confidence": "Low", "fiscal_detail": "Tax package", "pillars_readiness": { "right": 74, "real": 37, "lasting": 48 }, "pressures": { "P1": { "effect": "Borrows", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P2": { "effect": "Builds", "lasts": "Unlikely" }, "P3": { "effect": "Builds", "lasts": "Likely" }, "P4": { "effect": "Builds", "lasts": "Partly" } }, "risks": { "R1": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Promises a robust AI framework protecting creators' IP; no detail", "with_others_note": "Backs CISAC Paris Commitment, a non-government pledge only", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Arts and culture statement", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/arts_and_culture_statement", "date": "2026-10-19" }, { "title": "1News, Analysis: AI has finally entered the election campaign arena", "url": "https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/04/analysis-ai-has-finally-entered-the-election-campaign-arena/", "date": "2026-10-04" } ] }, "R2": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Plans", "home_note": "Increase conservation and biosecurity funding, with no amount or vehicle stated.", "with_others_note": "Tie emissions budgets and NDC to Paris 1.5 degrees; book NDC cost as liability.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Climate Action", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/climate_action", "date": "2026-08-19" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Healthy Land", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/healthy_land", "date": "2026-08-11" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines", "date": "2026-09-29" } ] }, "R3": { "home": "Acknowledges", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Gene tech rules by independent expert, case-by-case assessment", "with_others_note": "No WHO or pandemic cooperation position found", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Gene Technology Policy", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819052122/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/gene_technology_policy", "date": "2026-08-19" } ] }, "R4": { "home": "Silent", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "No defence, security or conflict resilience policy found.", "with_others_note": "No alliance, arms control or Pacific security policy found.", "sources": [ { "title": "Policy.nz 2026", "url": "https://policy.nz/", "date": "2026-10-21" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines", "date": "2026-09-29" } ] }, "R5": { "home": "Plans", "with_others": "Silent", "home_note": "Anti-corruption body, misleading election ad ban, citizens' assemblies; $52m a year", "with_others_note": "No international position on trust or interference found", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Clean Up Politics", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043010/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/clean_up_politics", "date": "2026-08-19" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Citizens Voice Policy (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/citizens-voice-policy.pdf", "date": "2026-08-19" } ] } }, "continuity": { "row": "Opportunity", "C1": { "rating": "Silent", "note": "No position on a four-year term found; not in Parliament, so no vote.", "sources": [], "flag": "Its Citizens' Voice policy (June 2025) says politicians focus on 'the three-year electoral cycle', but proposes citizens' assemblies, not a term change. Could be read as Acknowledges; took the lower." }, "C2": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Will seek 10-year cross-party plans for health (a bottom line) and education, a cross-party population strategy, and an infrastructure plan agreed across parties.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/10_year_plans_to_strengthen_health_and_education", "date": "2026-09-02" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines", "date": "2026-09-29" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf", "date": "2026-09-04" } ], "flag": "No MPs, so cannot reach Committed. Process for the 10-year plans is described ('bring all political parties together') but no accord text; Plans rests on health being a written bottom line." }, "C3": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Legislate Te Waihanga's 30-year plan (cancelling projects over $250m needs a bill), protect the Climate Change Commission, create an independent costing unit.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF)", "url": "https://cdn.opportunity.org.nz/documents/policy/Opportunity%20Policy%20-%20Intergenerational%20Infrastructure.pdf", "date": "2026-09-04" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines", "date": "2026-09-29" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Clean Up Politics", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819043010/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/clean_up_politics", "date": "2026-08-19" } ], "flag": "The $250m cancellation threshold appears only in the policy FAQ (p. 8); the main text says 'certain major projects'." }, "C4": { "rating": "Plans", "note": "Recommits to Paris and keeps the Climate Commission; replaces NZ Super with a Citizen's Income topped up to current Super rates.", "sources": [ { "title": "Opportunity, Bottom Lines", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/bottom_lines", "date": "2026-09-29" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Tax Reset", "url": "https://www.opportunity.org.nz/tax-reset", "date": "2026-08-06" }, { "title": "Opportunity, Climate Action", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260819042618/https://www.opportunity.org.nz/climate_action", "date": "2026-08-19" } ], "flag": "No stated position on NZ Super Fund contributions; the Super replacement keeps current payment levels, so read as a stated alternative, not a drop." }, "since_19_oct": [ "Wong says she will call Luxon first and then Labour (coalition stance; not rated; master_v3/ch5.md 'Since 19 October')" ], "checked_but_not_found": "C1: opportunity.org.nz Clean Up Politics, Bottom Lines, 10-year plans, Intergenerational Infrastructure PDF, Citizens' Voice PDF; web searches for Opportunity or Wong on a four-year term; 1News Multi-Party Debate report (13 Oct 2026), where its referendum pick was a citizens' assembly on Super, not term length." } } ]