This term, issue by issue · Cost of living and incomes

Cost of living: National's plan scores best, but most answers ease this year's bills, not their causes

National and Opportunity do most to build the 2050 position, by changing market structure and, for Opportunity, shifting tax from work to land, so costs fall for good rather than for one year.

What is at stake now and by 2050

This term

Food, fuel, power and rent take a larger share of household budgets than before 2021, and inflation has run above target. Parties are offering everything from price-gouging bans and supermarket break-ups to tax cuts, wage rules and benefit changes.

Number to know

63% of New Zealanders name cost of living as a top concern, the top issue in every Ipsos wave since 2022 (Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor, September 2026).

Source: Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor, 34th wave, September 2026

By 2050

To 2050, living costs are set by productivity (which sets real wages), housing supply and energy prices, not by this year's relief payments. One-off support that is not paid for adds to the fiscal gap a smaller workforce will have to close.

Number to know

Treasury estimates that delaying fiscal adjustment by 40 years could lower average incomes by about $6,800 a year.

Source: Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)

Current settings

A Grocery Commissioner regulates supermarkets with no forced break-up; the minimum wage is reviewed yearly; benefits rise with prices and carry sanctions. The Government added a temporary $50 a week to the In-Work Tax Credit this year and cancelled the 12c fuel excise rise due in 2027, with 5c steps from 2028.

The options on the table

Option	Backed by
Force more competition in groceries (split Foodstuffs, separate wholesale, a public chain, or Commerce Commission power to separate firms)	National Labour Greens NZ First Opportunity
Ease entry for new supermarkets rather than break up incumbents	ACT
Cut income tax for low and middle earners, paid for by taxes on wealth, firms or land	Greens Te Pāti Māori Opportunity
Ban price gouging on essentials	Labour Greens
Raise in-work and family payments	National Greens NZ First
Tighten benefit rules (lower rates for long-term Jobseekers, longer residence stand-downs, money cards)	National ACT NZ First
Freeze the adult minimum wage for three years	ACT
Cap or remove public transport fares	Labour Greens Opportunity

Where each party stands

Voter priorities out of 15 (the four core tests plus relief this term) and Readiness to 2050 out of 21 (the four core tests plus the three long-run tests). Current settings come first, as the bar to beat. Open a party for every test score, the rationale and the sources.

Current settings

Voter priorities: 8/15
Readiness to 2050: 11/21

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	1	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	3	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Current settings regulate supermarkets and index benefits to prices but leave the drivers (market structure, housing, energy) largely untouched; relief such as the temporary $50 In-Work Tax Credit top-up and the cancelled 2027 fuel excise rise is funded and delivered through existing agencies.

Relief this term

Current settings add nothing new this term: the $50 a week In-Work Tax Credit top-up is temporary, and cancelling the 12c fuel excise rise due in 2027 avoids a cost rather than lowering one, with 5c steps from 2028. Benefits keep rising with prices.

Sources

National

Voter priorities: 13/15
Readiness to 2050: 17/21

Competition reform in groceries, tighter welfare, and family support inside its fiscal plan; no tax cuts this term.

Split Foodstuffs into two national cooperatives through a Commerce Commission plan, law within 100 days; modelled prices 3.5% to 5% lower than otherwise
Cut Jobseeker rates for people on the benefit two of the last three years from April 2028; five years' residence before benefits
Paid parental leave to 30 weeks by 2029
Delay fuel excise and road user charge rises to 2028, then 5c steps

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	3	Both scores
Mechanism	3	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	3	Both scores
Relief	2	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Targets grocery market structure with a published cost-benefit analysis and modelled 3.5% to 5% lower prices, legislated within 100 days through the Commerce Commission and costed in its fiscal plan; names long-term Jobseekers as losers, but those welfare cuts are likely to be reversed by a left government, so Durability is 2 not 3.

Relief this term

Paid parental leave rises to 27 weeks in Budget 2027 and 30 weeks by 2029, and the Foodstuffs split is legislated within 100 days with modelled prices 3.5% to 5% lower; but long-term Jobseekers lose income from April 2028.

Sources

Labour

Voter priorities: 9/15
Readiness to 2050: 11/21

Go after market power in groceries, fuel, banking and airfares, and lift low pay.

Make price gouging on essentials illegal, with Commerce Commission powers to take dominant firms to court
Separate supermarket wholesale from retail; freeze fuel excise for three years
$20 weekly public transport fare cap in the three main cities ($10 elsewhere) from 1 July 2027
Restore pay equity within 100 days; $4 an hour rise for 65,000 care workers from 2027; raise the minimum wage every year

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	2	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names market power as the driver (price gouging law, wholesale separation, fuel and banking competition) with plausible but untested paths; care worker pay is in its fiscal plan, but the fare cap and three-year fuel excise freeze have no clear funding line in the evidence checked, so Funding is 1.

Relief this term

Dated relief for meaningful groups: a $20 weekly fare cap ($10 outside the main cities) from 1 July 2027, $4 an hour more for 65,000 care workers from the start of 2027, a three-year fuel excise freeze and yearly minimum wage rises. The price gouging ban and wholesale separation have no modelled price effect.

Sources

Greens

Voter priorities: 7/15
Readiness to 2050: 10/21

Redistribute through tax and benefits, and take part of the supermarket market into public hands.

Income tax cut for everyone under $160,000, first $10,000 tax-free, 45% rate above $160,000
KiwiMart: at least 120 stores moved into a public supermarket chain ($2.8b, no stated funding); ban price gouging
Lift benefits to liveable rates, abolish sanctions, strengthen Working for Families (uncosted)
Double food grants ($94m to $100m a year) and a $150m a year Fair Food Fund; fund care worker pay equity ($1.1b a year)

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Diagnoses low incomes and supermarket market power; the income tax cut is modelled by the Parliamentary Library and paid for by the wealth tax, but KiwiMart ($2.8b) and liveable benefits have no stated funding or timetable.

Relief this term

An income tax cut for everyone under $160,000 (first $10,000 tax-free) would be broad, about $27 a week at $40,000, but no start date or in-term year is given in the inputs or by web search; doubled food grants, KiwiMart and liveable benefits are also undated.

Sources

ACT

Voter priorities: 9/15
Readiness to 2050: 12/21

Lower costs by removing regulation and holding labour costs down, not by subsidies.

Freeze the adult minimum wage for three years; training wage at 60% for under-20s in their first year
One-stop consenting body for new supermarket entrants; auto-approve products approved in the US, UK and Australia
Remove the ETS price floor and refund all carbon auction money to New Zealanders
Money management card for Jobseekers after four months; tighter medical checks for health benefits

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Blames regulation and entry barriers (supermarket consenting body, used-car test) and freezes the minimum wage, saying plainly its real value will fall; costed in its fiscal plan, but the freeze clashes with NZ First's pledge of rises at least with inflation, so it depends on ACT alone.

Relief this term

The ETS auction refund to households is broad but unsized, and new supermarket entry takes years; the three-year minimum wage freeze cuts real pay for the lowest paid this term.

Sources

NZ First

Voter priorities: 7/15
Readiness to 2050: 10/21

Break up concentrated markets and pay more to working families, with no fiscal plan.

Split Foodstuffs into two cooperatives; split power generators from retailers; bigger Commerce Commission penalties
In-Work Tax Credit up $70 a week ($500m to $600m a year)
Kiwi Kids Grant of $5,000 a year for a child's first three years ($400m per three-year cycle)
Minimum wage rises at least with inflation; ten-year benefit stand-down for migrants

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names market concentration and would split Foodstuffs and the gentailers, plus $70 a week more In-Work Tax Credit ($500m to $600m a year) and a $5,000 Kiwi Kids Grant ($400m); costs are stated but no fiscal plan says how they are paid for. The Foodstuffs split is shared with National.

Relief this term

$70 a week more In-Work Tax Credit ($500m to $600m a year) and a $5,000 a year Kiwi Kids Grant would help working families, but neither has a start date and NZ First has no fiscal plan; the Foodstuffs and gentailer splits are structural and slower.

Sources

Te Pāti Māori

Voter priorities: 8/15
Readiness to 2050: 11/21

Shift tax from low earners to wealth and land, and strengthen welfare.

No income tax on the first $30,000; 15% to $60,000; 48% above $300,000
Income Tax Kai Credit worth eight weeks of food a year for earners under $60,000
Minimum wage to $28.95; double baseline benefits and remove sanctions (uncosted)
Back Māori-owned supermarkets and local kai sellers

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Diagnoses a tax system that taxes wages more than wealth; the $30,000 tax-free band and kai credit sit in its costed tax package (about $200m headroom), while doubling benefits is uncosted and there is no delivery timetable.

Relief this term

No income tax on the first $30,000 and a kai credit for earners under $60,000 sit in a costed tax package, but the package gives no start date or in-term years; doubled benefits and a $28.95 minimum wage are undated and uncosted.

Sources

Opportunity

Voter priorities: 9/15
Readiness to 2050: 13/21

Swap taxes on work for a land tax, pay a Citizen's Income, and force competition.

Citizen's Income of up to $370 a week for almost all adults, replacing most benefits; tax brackets 28/34/39%
1.75% urban land value tax, expected to cut house prices 10% to 15%
Commerce Commission power to force structural separation of anti-competitive firms
Free public transport (net cost about $150m a year); consolidate electricity distributors

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	3	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Targets housing costs, taxes on work and market structure; the Citizen's Income and land tax are costed in its Tax Reset (with a $0.6b to $1.6b shortfall) but phase in over years, and the land tax is not a bottom line, so it rests on Opportunity alone.

Relief this term

The Citizen's Income is introduced gradually and the land value tax lowers house prices over years; free public transport has no start date.

Sources

Place yourself

Agreeing sometimes means change and sometimes keeping current settings. Take the quiz to compare across every issue.

Statement	National	Labour	Greens	ACT	NZ First	Te Pāti Māori	Opportunity
Income tax cut. Income tax should be cut for most earners this term.	Disagrees	No stated position	Agrees	Disagrees	Mixed	Agrees	Agrees
Minimum wage rises. The adult minimum wage should continue to rise every year.	No stated position	Agrees	No stated position	Disagrees	Agrees	Agrees	No stated position
Supermarket break-up. Government should force a break-up of the supermarket duopoly.	Mixed	Agrees	Agrees	Disagrees	Agrees	Mixed	Mixed
Long-term Jobseeker cut. Jobseeker payments should be cut for people on the benefit for two of the last three years.	Agrees	No stated position	Disagrees	No stated position	No stated position	Disagrees	No stated position

✓ Agrees, ○ Mixed, ✗ Disagrees, · No stated position. Silence is a finding.

Why each statement matters

Income tax cut Income tax should be cut for most earners this term.
What it means
Income tax rates (now 10.5% to 39%) would fall for most people this term. Current plans have no cuts while the budget returns to surplus, forecast for 2028/29.
The case for
People keep more of each pay while food, fuel, power and rent eat into budgets.
The case against
Cuts mean less for services, a later surplus, or new taxes elsewhere to pay for them.
The trade-off
More money in pockets now versus lower debt as the population ages.
Minimum wage rises The adult minimum wage should continue to rise every year.
What it means
The adult minimum wage is reviewed every year. Agreeing means it keeps rising each year; disagreeing allows a pause, such as a proposed three-year freeze.
The case for
A freeze lets rising prices eat into what the lowest-paid workers can buy.
The case against
Holding wage costs steady can help firms keep and hire staff, especially young people.
The trade-off
Higher pay for low earners versus lower costs for employers and possibly more entry-level jobs.
Supermarket break-up Government should force a break-up of the supermarket duopoly.
What it means
Two firms hold about 80% of grocery sales. A Grocery Commissioner regulates them now, with no forced break-up. Options include splitting Foodstuffs or separating wholesale from retail.
The case for
More real competitors could push grocery prices down for good, not just for a year.
The case against
A forced split is costly and untested; easing entry for new supermarkets could add competition instead.
The trade-off
Fast, forced change to the market versus a slower, lighter route.
Long-term Jobseeker cut Jobseeker payments should be cut for people on the benefit for two of the last three years.
What it means
Jobseeker Support is the main benefit for people able to work. This would pay a lower rate from April 2028 to people on it for two of the last three years.
The case for
A lower payment adds pressure to find work, which could lift incomes and the workforce over time.
The case against
Cutting already low incomes could deepen hardship without creating the jobs people need.
The trade-off
A stronger push into work versus a weaker safety net.

The 2050 test

National and Opportunity do most to build the 2050 position, by changing market structure and, for Opportunity, shifting tax from work to land, so costs fall for good rather than for one year. NZ First and the Greens add the most ongoing payments without full funding (Kiwi Kids Grant, In-Work Tax Credit, KiwiMart, liveable benefits), which leans on later budgets. No party links cost of living to the productivity gap that sets real wages to 2050.

Party	Effect to 2050	The policy that drives it	Would it last?
National	Builds	Foodstuffs split and benefit work tests. A third grocery competitor lowers margins for good, and moving long-term Jobseekers into work lifts labour supply. Source	Partly
Labour	Neutral	Price gouging ban, fare cap, pay equity. Mostly redistributes or caps prices rather than changing productivity; wholesale separation could build competition but is untested. Source	Partly
Greens	Neutral	Income tax cut funded by wealth tax; KiwiMart. Shifts incomes towards low and middle earners without a clear productivity path, and KiwiMart is unfunded. Source	No
ACT	Neutral	Minimum wage freeze; easier supermarket entry. Cheaper entry-level hiring and new entrants could lift jobs and competition, but a falling real wage floor cuts low incomes. Source	No
NZ First	Neutral	In-Work Tax Credit rise; gentailer and Foodstuffs splits. Market splits could lower prices, but unfunded family payments add to later budgets. Source	Partly
Te Pāti Māori	Neutral	$30,000 tax-free band and kai credit. Raises low incomes by moving tax onto wealth and land, with no stated effect on productivity. Source	No
Opportunity	Builds	Land value tax and Citizen's Income. Moving tax from work to land lowers house prices and benefit clawbacks, improving incentives to work and build. Source	No

All sources for this grouping are listed on the sources page.