NZ Election 2026 · The Parties, the Issues and the Long Game

Sources

Every claim traces back to a source

Numbered sources are cited in the text in square brackets. Every party document behind a score, rating or statement is listed by section, in the order of the report. Type tags: Official, Independent analysis, Party, Media. Party sources show what a party said, not that a policy works. Policy.nz summaries were used as a finding aid; scores rest on the party sources they cite.

Numbered sources

  1. Official · Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement) and chart data · treasury.govt.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  2. Independent analysis · The New Zealand Initiative, Submission on the Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Bill (2025) · nzinitiative.org.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  3. Independent analysis · Victoria University of Wellington, Taking the fight to short-termism in government (Jonathan Boston, 2019) · wgtn.ac.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  4. Official · Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill: first reading 5 March 2025; second reading deferred 18 February 2026 · en.wikipedia.org · accessed 19 October 2026
  5. Official · Te Waihanga, National Infrastructure Plan · tewaihanga.govt.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  6. Independent analysis · Healy, Persson and Snowberg, Digging into the Pocketbook, American Political Science Review (2017) · cambridge.org · accessed 19 October 2026
  7. Media · 1News Verian poll, 8 to 12 October 2026 · 1news.co.nz · accessed 19 October 2026 (superseded in this edition by the two latest polls, listed under Added 21 October 2026)
  8. Media · 1News, How the new enrolment rules could affect the result (16 October 2026) · 1news.co.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  9. Independent analysis · PartyMap, Foreign affairs and sovereignty comparison (checked to 9 August 2026) · partymap.co.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  10. Party · National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026) · national.org.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  11. Independent analysis · The Conversation, Election policy tracker 2026 · stories.theconversation.com · accessed 19 October 2026
  12. Party · Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026) · labour.org.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  13. Party · Green Party, A tax system for all of us (21 June 2026) and policy papers · greens.org.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  14. Party · ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026) · act.org.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  15. Party · NZ First, policy pages and speeches (2026) · nzfirst.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  16. Party · Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy (August 2026) and policy papers · maoriparty.org.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  17. Party · Opportunity, Tax Reset (May 2026, amended August 2026) · opportunity.org.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  18. Independent analysis · Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor, 34th wave, September 2026 · ipsos.com · accessed 19 October 2026
  19. Media · Insurance Business NZ, Flood cover restrictions arrive before adaptation funding (July 2026) · insurancebusinessmag.com · accessed 19 October 2026
  20. Media · 1News, US "freeloading" claim and NZ foreign policy (5 June 2026) · 1news.co.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  21. Media · China Daily HK, citing Stats NZ, on migration to Australia (October 2026) · chinadailyhk.com · accessed 19 October 2026
  22. Official · OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand 2026 · oecd.org · accessed 19 October 2026
  23. Independent analysis · Know Your Part, reality checks (citing Inland Revenue Annual Report 2024/25) · knowyourpart.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  24. Independent analysis · WhichParty NZ, party positions and methodology (dataset v1.6, 29 September 2026) · whichparty.nz · accessed 19 October 2026
  25. Independent analysis · Sapere Research Group for IAG NZ, Natural hazards-related public spending in New Zealand (May 2025), as reported by Insurance Business NZ · insurancebusinessmag.com · accessed 22 October 2026. Commissioned by an insurer; central government spending since 2010.
  26. Official · Australian Minister for Defence, 2026 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program (16 April 2026) · minister.defence.gov.au · accessed 22 October 2026
  27. Official · OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions 2026 Results, New Zealand country note (29 June 2026) · oecd.org · accessed 22 October 2026

Sources by section

Introduction

Summary

This term: Cost of living and incomes

This term: Health

This term: Economy, jobs and productivity

This term: Housing

  • Stats NZ, 2023 Census housing release (3 October 2024), via Scoop · scoop.co.nz
  • National, Giving more Kiwis access to 5% first home deposits · web.archive.org
  • National, National to make it easier to build the future · web.archive.org
  • National, Improving infrastructure tools for Fast-track (14 August 2026) · web.archive.org
  • National, Building the future: backing Auckland to succeed (14 October 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026) · labour.org.nz
  • Labour, Labour to get NZ building and Kiwis back to work (24 September 2026) · labour.org.nz
  • Waatea News, Labour pledges to protect social housing tenants from rent hikes (1 July 2026) · waateanews.com
  • Labour, Move On Bill still punishes the homeless (3 September 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Greens, Housing (2026 manifesto) · greens.org.nz
  • Greens, A tax system for all of us · web.archive.org
  • Greens, Power for all of us: Full Power Policy (PDF) · web.archive.org
  • ACT, ACT to abolish another of Labour's renters' taxes (14 October 2026) · act.org.nz
  • ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026) · act.org.nz
  • NZ First, Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals (14 October 2026) · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (11 September 2026) · nzfirst.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Housing · maoriparty.org.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, A Kiwi Tax Plan (PDF, 26 August 2026) · img.scoop.co.nz
  • Opportunity, Affordable Housing · opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Tax Reset · opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF) · cdn.opportunity.org.nz
  • Ministry for the Environment, Going for Housing Growth · environment.govt.nz
  • National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026) · national.org.nz
  • Labour, Capital Gains Tax · web.archive.org
  • 1News, No land tax or Citizen's Income in Opportunity's bottom lines (29 September 2026) · 1news.co.nz
  • The Spinoff, live blog of the final Stuff leaders' debate (20 October 2026) · thespinoff.co.nz

This term: Crime and justice

This term: Climate, energy and environment

This term: Education and skills

This term: Migration and population

This term: Tax, public finances and retirement

This term: Transport, infrastructure and local government

  • Te Waihanga, National Infrastructure Plan: executive summary (February 2026) · tewaihanga.govt.nz
  • Te Waihanga, Infrastructure needs analysis · tewaihanga.govt.nz
  • National, Mill Road Stage One given the green light (4 October 2026) · web.archive.org
  • National, Keeping rates affordable (Rates Capping Bill) · national.org.nz
  • National, International Visitor Levy reset to keep taxes low (8 September 2026) · web.archive.org
  • National, National's Economic Plan (PDF, 28 September 2026) · web.archive.org
  • National, Government cancels fuel tax hike (31 August 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026) · labour.org.nz
  • Labour, New Zealand Future Fund · labour.org.nz
  • Labour, Labour will scrap National's fuel excise increase (27 August 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, Labour will restore Mana Whakahono ā Rohe agreements (23 September 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Greens, Green Party launches the transport plan to combat fossil fuel crisis (4 October 2026) · greens.org.nz
  • Greens, Fast, frequent, affordable public transport for all of us · greens.org.nz
  • Greens, Local Government (2026 manifesto) · web.archive.org
  • ACT, Keep New Zealand Moving (4 September 2026) · act.org.nz
  • ACT, Local Tourism Dividend · web.archive.org
  • ACT, A Fair Contribution · web.archive.org
  • ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (11 October 2026) · act.org.nz
  • NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, Commuter Rail for Christchurch and Reinstate the Southerner Train (18 October 2026) · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, Changes to Fast-Track Residential Approvals (14 October 2026) · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, Disestablish Auckland's Independent Māori Statutory Board · nzfirst.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy and policy papers · maoriparty.org.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Cost of living policy (Manifesto 2026) · maoriparty.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF) · cdn.opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Tax Reset · opportunity.org.nz
  • National, Fiscal plan (12 October 2026) · national.org.nz
  • Labour, Labour to get NZ building and Kiwis back to work (24 September 2026) · labour.org.nz
  • NZ First, policy pages · nzfirst.nz
  • Greens, A tax system for all of us · web.archive.org

This term: Te Tiriti, Māori and the constitution

  • 1News, Treaty Principles Bill voted down amid fiery MP debate (10 Apr 2025) · 1news.co.nz
  • Stats NZ via Scoop, Māori population share projected to grow in all regions (2022) · scoop.co.nz
  • National, National's plan for healthy fisheries (10 Oct 2026) · web.archive.org
  • National, Fiscal Plan (PDF, 12 Oct 2026) · assets.national.org.nz
  • The Spinoff, To MMP or not to MMP, that is Christopher Luxon's question (7 Aug 2026) · thespinoff.co.nz
  • National, Securing water and fertiliser to back NZ farmers (9 Oct 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, Labour will restore Mana Whakahono ā Rohe agreements (23 Sep 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, Labour will back Māori business and grow the Māori economy (15 Oct 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, Backing Māori into Skilled Work (29 Aug 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, Labour will back Kiwis and grow the economy (23 Aug 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, National is making it harder to vote (24 Jul 2026) · labour.org.nz
  • Greens, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Manifesto 2026) · greens.org.nz
  • Greens, Te Waonui a Tāne: Thriving Marae for Thriving Communities (PDF) · web.archive.org
  • Greens, Ake, Ake, Ake: Green Party commits $200m to the future of te reo Māori (14 Sep 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Greens, Greens announce plans to get big money and influence out of politics (22 Sep 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Te Ao Māori News, Green Party announces member's bill to entrench Māori electorate seats (24 Jan 2026) · teaonews.co.nz
  • ACT, Finish the settlements, wind up the Waitangi Tribunal (10 Sep 2026) · act.org.nz
  • ACT, One Law for All Policy (PDF, 23 Aug 2026) · web.archive.org
  • ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (PDF, 11 Oct 2026) · assets.nationbuilder.com
  • NZ First, NZFirst to Campaign on Ending the Waitangi Make-Work Industry (26 Sep 2026) · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, Referendum on Māori Seats · web.archive.org
  • NZ First, Citizen's Only Voting · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, Disestablish Auckland's 'Independent Maori Statutory Board' · web.archive.org
  • Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF, 2026) · img.scoop.co.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Te Pāti Māori will make the Waitangi Tribunal recommendations binding (6 Aug 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Te Pāti Māori, Mana Motuhake policy (Manifesto 2026) · maoriparty.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Honouring Te Tiriti · opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Citizens Voice Policy (PDF) · cdn.opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Clean Up Politics · web.archive.org
  • National, policy index · national.org.nz
  • Labour, Fiscal plan (4 Oct 2026) · labour.org.nz
  • Green Party, A tax system for all of us (21 Jun 2026) · greens.org.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Tax policy (Aug 2026) · maoriparty.org.nz
  • Greens, Democracy (Manifesto 2026) · web.archive.org
  • 1News, Chris v Chris: no mistake, no magic moment (21 Oct 2026) · 1news.co.nz

This term: Defence, foreign affairs and trade

This term: Community, inclusion and culture

The long game: Ageing and the fiscal gap

The long game: Productivity and incomes

The long game: Climate and resilience

The long game: The infrastructure deficit

  • National, Keeping rates affordable (Rates Capping Bill) · national.org.nz
  • Labour, Fiscal plan (4 October 2026) · labour.org.nz
  • Greens, Green Party launches the transport plan to combat fossil fuel crisis (4 October 2026) · greens.org.nz
  • ACT, Keep New Zealand Moving (4 September 2026) · act.org.nz
  • NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund · nzfirst.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Cost of Living (3 June 2026) · web.archive.org
  • Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF) · cdn.opportunity.org.nz

The long game: Governing for the long term

  • Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, as introduced · legislation.govt.nz
  • 1News, Referendum on four-year election term ditched by Government · 1news.co.nz
  • The Spinoff, We finally have a national infrastructure plan, and both sides of the House agree on it · thespinoff.co.nz
  • Transporting NZ, National Infrastructure Plan gains cross-party backing · transporting.nz
  • New Zealand Productivity Commission Act Repeal Act 2024 · legislation.govt.nz
  • Climate Change Response Act 2002 (as amended by the Zero Carbon Amendment Act 2019) · legislation.govt.nz
  • National, Government sets methane targets for 2050 · national.org.nz
  • Budget 2026, Fiscal Strategy Report, Annex 4: Contributions to the NZ Superannuation Fund · budget.govt.nz
  • National, Hon Chris Bishop's speech to Building Nations 2026 · national.org.nz
  • National, Building the Future: National's Economic Plan (PDF) · web.archive.org
  • National, Fiscal Plan (PDF) · assets.national.org.nz
  • National, Growing more to feed the world (PDF) · web.archive.org
  • Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, bill page and first reading vote (117 to 6; Labour 34 and Greens 15 for) · bills.parliament.nz
  • Wikipedia, Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, citing Hansard Vol. 780, 5 March 2025 ('Voting: Te Pāti Māori Votes'; National 49, Labour 34, Green 15, ACT 11, NZ First 8 for; Te Pāti Māori 6 against) · en.wikipedia.org
  • ODT/RNZ, 30-year Infrastructure Plan gets widespread support in Parliament (Labour and Green forewords to the Government response) · odt.co.nz
  • Engineering New Zealand, Infrastructure plan gains cross-party support · engineeringnz.org
  • Labour, Fiscal Strategy · labour.org.nz
  • interest.co.nz, Labour pledges return to surplus and independent Parliamentary Budget Office · interest.co.nz
  • 1News, Labour says it will set up body to oversee NZ's school curriculum · 1news.co.nz
  • Labour to accelerate climate action (stays in Paris; ETS review) · labour.org.nz
  • Labour, Small Business Action Plan (repeal Investment Boost; $10,000 write-off) · web.archive.org
  • Labour will scrap harmful disability Bill · web.archive.org
  • Deloitte, Election survey 2026: infrastructure (Labour to honour what is contracted, underway and already funded) · deloitte.com
  • Greens, Climate Action: Emissions Reduction (via Policy.nz) · web.archive.org
  • Greens, Green Party launches the transport plan to combat fossil fuel crisis · greens.org.nz
  • Greens, Environmental Protection manifesto (repeal Fast-track; revoke new coal, gold and seabed mining consents) · web.archive.org
  • ODT, Greens pledge to revoke Otago fast-track mining projects · odt.co.nz
  • Waatea News, RMA reform battle intensifies as Government and Greens clash over planning future · waateanews.com
  • ACT, ACT has the four year term solution · act.org.nz
  • 1News, 'You poor thing': Six big moments from the Multi-Party Debate (Seymour: a referendum on 'going to a four-year term') · 1news.co.nz
  • ACT, ACT to scrap costly climate bureaucracy, abolish the Climate Change Commission · act.org.nz
  • ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026 (pp. 9 to 10: 'maintain the suspension of contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund') · interest.co.nz
  • ACT, Scrap Net Zero, Cut the Carbon Tax · act.org.nz
  • 1News, ACT pledges to scrap country's net zero target · 1news.co.nz
  • RNZ, Government scraps plans for referendum on four-year term ('both coalition agreements secured support to get the bill to select committee but no further') · rnz.co.nz
  • NZ First, The $100bn New Zealand Future Fund · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, NZ First Announces Immigration Reform Policies (30-year Population Plan) · nzfirst.nz
  • NZ First, Policy index (includes 'We Will Withdraw From The Paris Accord') · nzfirst.nz
  • 1News, Peters takes crack at Luxon over Paris climate agreement stance · 1news.co.nz
  • Term of Parliament (Enabling 4-year Term) Legislation Amendment Bill, first reading vote 117 to 6 (bill page and vote record) · legislation.govt.nz
  • RNZ via Scoop, Four More Years? MPs Debate Bill To Extend Parliamentary Term · scoop.co.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Te Tiriti Entrenchment Policy (PDF) · img.scoop.co.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, Climate · web.archive.org
  • Te Pāti Māori, Justice · web.archive.org
  • Te Pāti Māori, Health policy (Manifesto 2026) · maoriparty.org.nz
  • Te Pāti Māori, We want cheaper power and we want our people to own it · web.archive.org
  • Opportunity, 10-year plans to strengthen health and education · opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Bottom Lines · opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Intergenerational Infrastructure (PDF) · cdn.opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Clean Up Politics · web.archive.org
  • Opportunity, Tax Reset · opportunity.org.nz
  • Opportunity, Climate Action · web.archive.org

The long game: Advanced AI going badly

  • NCSC, Cyber Threat Report 2025: incident reporting analysis · ncsc.govt.nz
  • DLA Piper, Quick on the uptake: New Zealand's new strategic approach to artificial intelligence · dlapiper.com
  • National, Government moves to ban U16s from social media · web.archive.org
  • National, Building the Future: 47-point plan to support small businesses (PDF) · web.archive.org
  • Labour, AI in New Zealand's interests · labour.org.nz
  • Labour, Safer online (PDF) · web.archive.org
  • Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF) · assets.nationbuilder.com
  • Green Party, Digital Technology (Manifesto 2026) · web.archive.org
  • 1News, Analysis: AI has finally entered the election campaign arena · 1news.co.nz
  • 1News, Election 2026: What parties say about the threat of AI to fool voters · 1news.co.nz
  • Opportunity, Arts and culture statement · opportunity.org.nz

The long game: Climate change and ecological breakdown

The long game: Engineered pandemics

  • 1News, Govt accepts most Covid inquiry recommendations with some caveats · 1news.co.nz
  • Ministry of Health, Preparing for future pandemics · health.govt.nz
  • Ministry of Health, Amending the International Health Regulations (2005) · health.govt.nz
  • National, Government responds to COVID-19 Inquiry · national.org.nz
  • National, Growing more to feed the world (PDF) · web.archive.org
  • Victoria University of Wellington, NZ's rejection of new WHO pandemic rules makes 'no real sense' · wgtn.ac.nz
  • Green Party, Covid Inquiry report underlines need to invest in Health · greens.org.nz
  • Green Party, Biodiversity and Environmental Regeneration Policy · web.archive.org
  • The Spinoff, The second Covid report is out, now Winston Peters wants another one · thespinoff.co.nz
  • Chris Lynch Media, Government rejects WHO pandemic rule changes · chrislynchmedia.com
  • Opportunity, Gene Technology Policy · web.archive.org

The long game: Great-power conflict, including nuclear war

The long game: Erosion of trust and governance

The parties: National

The parties: Labour

The parties: Opportunity

Downloads

The report and its scoring files

The open data

The data behind every score and chart on this site, as exported from the report's scoring files, published as open data for researchers and AI agents.

  • meta.json (3 KB) · titles, dates, lenses, tests, bands, continuity scale, poll average and seats
  • parties.json (76 KB) · current settings and every party: scores, bands, confidence, fiscal detail, pressures, risks, continuity
  • groupings.json (498 KB) · the groupings: stakes, options, every test score with rationale and sources, all statements and explainers
  • pressures.json (1 KB) · the pressures and their groupings
  • risks.json (47 KB) · the global risks and every party rating
  • charts.json (5 KB) · chart series
  • quiz.json (1 KB) · quiz statements and scoring rules