This term, issue by issue · Economy, jobs and productivity
Economy and jobs: no plan does much better than current settings, and nobody sets a target for output per worker
National's investment and consenting settings and Opportunity's R&D and technology-adoption push are the answers most likely to lift output per worker by 2050, with Labour's Future Fund a possible build if it is sized.
What is at stake now and by 2050
This term
Unemployment has risen and young people are hit first, while growth has been weak. Wages follow output per hour, and New Zealand's has grown slowly for two decades.
Number to know
Output per hour grew about 0.7% a year over the past 20 years (OECD Economic Survey 2026, as used in this report's productivity card).
By 2050
With fewer workers per retiree, growth to 2050 must come from output per worker rather than more workers. How fast firms adopt AI, invest in capital and spend on R&D will set wages and the tax base.
Number to know
3.8 working-age people per person over 65 today; about 2.8 by 2050 (Treasury).
Source: Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)
Current settings
Investment Boost (a 20% upfront deduction on new business assets), Fast-track Approvals Act, RMA replacement under way, offshore exploration ban repealed, a small-business AI Advisory pilot, and Treasury forecasting about 220,000 more jobs by 2030.
The options on the table
| Option | Backed by |
|---|---|
| Keep Investment Boost and cut regulation and consenting time |
|
| Replace Investment Boost with a $10,000 small-firm write-off and a state Future Fund |
|
| Expand mining and extraction through fast-track and minerals law |
|
| Lift R&D to 2% of GDP with a technology adoption tax credit |
|
| Central AI office and AI regulation |
|
| Job or training guarantee for young unemployed people |
|
| Lower labour costs: minimum wage freeze and training wage |
|
| Targeted tax cuts and special economic zones for regions and small firms |
|
| Funds for Māori enterprise and a higher company tax |
|
Where each party stands
Voter priorities out of 15 (the four core tests plus relief this term) and Readiness to 2050 out of 21 (the four core tests plus the three long-run tests). Current settings come first, as the bar to beat. Open a party for every test score, the rationale and the sources.
Current settings
- Voter priorities
- 9/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 13/21
Test scores, rationale and sources for Current settings
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 2 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 2 Readiness to 2050 Durability 2 Readiness to 2050 Candour 1 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Investment Boost, fast-track consenting and RMA replacement target the investment and regulation drivers and sit in Treasury's forecasts; the government does not quantify a productivity target or name who bears the costs of faster consents.
Relief this term
Investment Boost, fast-track consenting and RMA replacement are structural and build slowly; Treasury's 220,000 more jobs by 2030 is a forecast, not a measure aimed at today's jobless.
Sources
National
- Voter priorities
- 10/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 14/21
Stay the course: keep Investment Boost, replace the RMA, fast-track projects and target 2.7% growth and 220,000 jobs by 2030.
- Keep Investment Boost; replace the RMA, roughly halving consents; growth target 2.7% a year and 220,000 jobs by 2030
- 47-point small business plan: 120 more AI Advisory places, 'Next 200' exporter programme, prompt payment reporting
- Government policy statement on mining under the Fast-track Approvals Act; data centres approved only with new firm generation
- Extra case management for 30,000 long-term Jobseekers, 5,000 places for young people
Test scores, rationale and sources for National
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 3 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 2 Readiness to 2050 Durability 2 Readiness to 2050 Candour 1 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Names investment and regulation as drivers and sets measurable targets (2.7% growth, 220,000 jobs by 2030), all inside its costed fiscal plan, with a delivery record in government; Labour would repeal Investment Boost, and the plan presents its measures as having no losers.
Relief this term
Extra case management for 30,000 long-term Jobseekers (5,000 places for young people) is the only direct help for the unemployed; the rest continues structural settings with a 2.7% growth and 220,000 jobs target to 2030.
Sources
Labour
- Voter priorities
- 10/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 13/21
Repeal Investment Boost for a small-business package, set up a Future Fund and an Office of AI.
- Repeal Investment Boost; $10,000 low-value asset write-off for firms under $10m turnover from July 2027 ($1.56b over four years)
- New Zealand Future Fund, seeded with Crown assets and run by the Guardians of the Super Fund (size not stated)
- Office of AI in DPMC with a senior minister; AI workforce plan; data centres pay own connection and bring own renewables
- Apprenticeship Boost extended to two years at $500 a month; Reserve Bank dual mandate restored
Test scores, rationale and sources for Labour
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 2 Both scores Relief 2 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 2 Readiness to 2050 Candour 2 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Targets small-firm cash flow, AI adoption and skills with named vehicles (100-day payments law, Office of AI, Guardians-run Future Fund) inside its party-reviewed fiscal plan; it names larger firms losing Investment Boost, but repealing it lowers capital incentives and the Future Fund has no size or date.
Relief this term
Dated help for small firms and apprentices: a $10,000 low-value asset write-off for firms under $10m turnover from 1 July 2027 ($1.56b over four years), a $1,000 toolbox grant from July 2027 and Apprenticeship Boost extended to two years from July 2028; the Future Fund has no size or date.
Sources
Greens
- Voter priorities
- 6/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 9/21
Guarantee young people work or training, regulate AI and steer industry toward low-carbon, local firms.
- Job, training or education pathway for every 16 to 24 year old out of work for six months
- AI office in DPMC moving to an independent AI commission; one-year pause on new AI data centres
- Repeal the Fast-track Approvals Act and revoke new coal, gold and seabed mining consents
- 33% company tax for the largest firms; Buy Kiwi Made and stronger competition agencies
Test scores, rationale and sources for Greens
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 1 Both scores Funding 1 Both scores Delivery 1 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 2 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Names youth unemployment (nearly 15%) and market concentration as drivers and names who pays (largest corporates); the jobs guarantee and AI commission have no cost or timeline, and the growth path from tighter mining, nitrogen and data-centre rules is asserted.
Relief this term
A pathway into work, training or education for every 16 to 24 year old out of work six months targets the right group, but has no cost or start date; revoking new mining consents could cost jobs in the term.
Sources
- Green Party, Youth Jobs Guarantee (PDF)
- Green Party, Safe, sovereign AI: An AI Plan for Aotearoa (PDF)
- Green Party, Small Business
- Green Party, A tax system for all of us (PDF)
- Green Party, Call for a one year pause on consenting new AI data centres (26 July 2026)
- Green Party, Environmental Protection (13 August 2026)
ACT
- Voter priorities
- 8/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 12/21
Lower the cost of hiring and of regulation, and lock in mining investment.
- Freeze the adult minimum wage for three years; training wage at 60% for under 20s
- 90-day limit on personal grievances; protected exit negotiations
- Statutory body to compensate mineral investors if permits are withdrawn; property rights in the Bill of Rights
- Innovation trials exempting firms from rules; review tax treatment of software
Test scores, rationale and sources for ACT
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 2 Both scores Relief 0 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 2 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Names labour and regulatory costs as drivers, with mostly zero-cost law changes inside its fiscal plan and named vehicles (Ministry for Regulation); it admits the minimum wage loses real value, but the freeze clashes with NZ First's inflation pledge and the mining compensation body binds future governments.
Relief this term
The main offer, a three-year minimum wage freeze and a 60% training wage for under-20s, cuts real pay for the lowest paid this term; the claimed hiring gains are not modelled, and the 90-day grievance limit gives no relief.
Sources
NZ First
- Voter priorities
- 6/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 7/21
Economic nationalism: tax breaks, a special economic zone, a minerals survey and more domestic processing.
- 20% company tax for firms under $30m turnover (party estimate $1b at first)
- Special Economic Zone at Marsden Point with tax breaks, wage subsidies and lighter planning rules
- Nationwide geological survey ($1b over the term); half of mining royalties kept in the regions
- Guaranteed milk for domestic processors from 50 to 500 million litres; trade protection for NZ aluminium
Test scores, rationale and sources for NZ First
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 1 Both scores Funding 1 Both scores Delivery 1 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 0 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Names drivers (small-firm tax, processor scale, untapped minerals) but the path is asserted, the $1b tax cut and $1b survey have no funding source ('growth will cover it'), and no party publishes support for the special economic zone.
Relief this term
A 20% company tax rate for firms under $30m turnover (about $1b at first) has no start date, and the Marsden Point zone and $1b geological survey build slowly.
Sources
- NZ First, Lowering Tax Rate for SMEs to 20%
- NZ First, Establishing a Special Economic Zone at Marsden Point
- NZ First, Returning 50% of mining royalties to the regions
- NZ First launches 'Use It or Lose It' dairy policy
- NZ First will immediately reverse this week's decision by the Minister of Consumer Affairs (17 October 2026)
Te Pāti Māori
- Voter priorities
- 4/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 7/21
Build Māori economic power and local ownership, paid for by taxing corporates and offshore profits.
- Funds for Māori enterprise and long-term Māori wealth (size not stated)
- On-farm and community renewable generation owned locally
- Company tax to 33%; 5% tax on profits sent overseas; 33% land banking tax
- Kai sovereignty: reject genetic engineering, support Māori-owned food sellers
Test scores, rationale and sources for Te Pāti Māori
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 1 Both scores Mechanism 1 Both scores Funding 1 Both scores Delivery 1 Both scores Relief 0 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 1 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Frames the problem as fairness and Māori ownership rather than a productivity driver; the Māori enterprise funds are unsized and only the tax side is costed in its tax plan.
Relief this term
Māori enterprise and wealth funds are unsized and undated, so nothing for jobs lands by 2029; the rise in company tax to 33% and a 5% tax on profits sent overseas could weigh on hiring.
Sources
Opportunity
- Voter priorities
- 10/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 13/21
An innovation-led 'Breakthrough Economy': R&D to 2% of GDP and a tax credit for adopting technology.
- R&D to 2% of GDP within ten years (3% by 2050); restore science funding
- Technology adoption tax credit of up to 25% for AI, digital platforms and automation ($600m a year)
- Commerce Commission power to seek break-ups of dominant firms; double funding for incubators and accelerators
- Polytechs as regional innovation hubs; package costed at $1.33b a year extra
Test scores, rationale and sources for Opportunity
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 3 Both scores Mechanism 3 Both scores Funding 1 Both scores Delivery 2 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 2 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 1 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Names low R&D and weak competition with evidence and sets a measurable target (R&D 2% of GDP in ten years); the $1.33b a year is costed but no funding source is given, it relies on this party alone, and it does not say who pays.
Relief this term
R&D to 2% of GDP within ten years is long-run; the technology adoption tax credit of up to 25% ($600m a year) could help firms but has no start date or job effect.
Sources
Place yourself
Agreeing sometimes means change and sometimes keeping current settings. Take the quiz to compare across every issue.
| Statement | National | Labour | Greens | ACT | NZ First | Te Pāti Māori | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office of AI. Government should set up a central Office of AI in the Prime Minister's department. | No stated position | Agrees | Agrees | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position |
| Data centres bring power. New data centres should only be approved if they bring their own new electricity generation. | Agrees | Agrees | Agrees | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position |
| Fast-track mining. Mining projects should continue to be eligible for the Fast-track Approvals Act. | Agrees | No stated position | Disagrees | Agrees | Agrees | Mixed | Mixed |
✓ Agrees, ○ Mixed, ✗ Disagrees, · No stated position. Silence is a finding.
Why each statement matters
Office of AI Government should set up a central Office of AI in the Prime Minister's department.
- What it means
- AI policy now sits with existing agencies, plus a small-business advice pilot. This would create a central Office of AI in the Prime Minister's department, led by a senior minister.
- The case for
- One office could plan for how AI changes jobs and set clear rules early.
- The case against
- A new office adds cost and rules; existing agencies can handle AI in their own areas.
- The trade-off
- Central control versus a lighter touch, as AI reshapes which skills pay by 2050.
Data centres bring power New data centres should only be approved if they bring their own new electricity generation.
- What it means
- Data centres are large buildings of computers that run AI and online services, and they use a lot of electricity. This would approve new ones only if they bring their own new power generation.
- The case for
- It stops big new users pushing up household power prices when supply is already tight.
- The case against
- An extra condition could slow or deter investment that brings jobs and growth.
- The trade-off
- Protecting household power bills versus attracting AI investment.
Fast-track mining Mining projects should continue to be eligible for the Fast-track Approvals Act.
- What it means
- The Fast-track Approvals Act lets large projects get consent through a shorter, faster process. Mining can use it now; disagreeing would remove that access.
- The case for
- Faster consents bring investment, jobs and royalties to regions that need them.
- The case against
- Fast-tracking mining limits environmental checks and local say, and damage can last generations.
- The trade-off
- Regional jobs and income versus stronger environmental checks and local say.
The 2050 test
National's investment and consenting settings and Opportunity's R&D and technology-adoption push are the answers most likely to lift output per worker by 2050, with Labour's Future Fund a possible build if it is sized. NZ First borrows from the future with unfunded tax cuts and subsidies, while ACT's lower-wage and mining lock-ins trade short-run hiring for contested long-run gains. Nobody sets a measurable productivity target or says how AI-driven job losses would be absorbed in the tax base.
| Party | Effect to 2050 | The policy that drives it | Would it last? |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | Builds | Keep Investment Boost; RMA replacement and fast-track consenting. Cheaper capital investment and faster consents raise capital per worker, the main source of output per hour. Source | Partly |
| Labour | Neutral | Swap Investment Boost for a $10,000 small-firm write-off; Future Fund; Office of AI. Shifts investment support from larger to smaller firms and adds an unsized fund, so the net effect on capital deepening is unclear. Source | Partly |
| Greens | Neutral | Youth jobs guarantee; AI regulation; repeal fast-track. Keeps young people attached to work but adds limits on mining, data centres and nitrogen, with no stated productivity path. Source | No |
| ACT | Neutral | Minimum wage freeze, training wage, innovation trials, mining compensation body. Lower labour costs raise hiring but not output per hour, while regulatory trials could lift adoption of new technology at the margin. Source | Partly |
| NZ First | Borrows | 20% small-firm company tax, Marsden Point zone, $1b minerals survey. About $2b of costs with no funding source pushes the bill onto future debt for gains the party asserts but does not show. Source | No |
| Te Pāti Māori | Neutral | Māori enterprise funds, local energy ownership, 33% company tax. Redistributes ownership and returns but sets no path to higher output per worker. Source | No |
| Opportunity | Builds | R&D to 2% of GDP; 25% technology adoption tax credit. R&D and faster AI and automation adoption are the levers most linked in the evidence to total factor productivity. Source | No |
All sources for this grouping are listed on the sources page.