Housing: Opportunity's land and zoning plan scores highest; most others add demand, not supply

What is at stake now and by 2050

This term

Rents and mortgage costs take a large share of household budgets, and first-home buyers still need large deposits despite prices easing. The gap between owners and renters, and between generations, keeps widening.

Number to know

66.0% of households owned their home (or held it in a family trust) at the 2023 Census, up from 64.5% in 2018.

Source: Stats NZ, 2023 Census housing release (3 October 2024), via Scoop

By 2050

Home ownership has trended down since its early-1990s peak, so more people will reach retirement renting, which pushes housing costs onto pensions and the Accommodation Supplement. Whether supply keeps up depends on planning rules and on who pays for the pipes and roads that new homes need.

Number to know

Ownership rose only slightly in 2023 (to 66.0%), which Stats NZ calls a small reversal of a fall that began in the early 1990s.

Source: Stats NZ, 2023 Census housing release (3 October 2024), via Scoop

Current settings

The Government's Going for Housing Growth programme requires councils to zone for 30 years of growth inside the RMA replacement, with fast-track consents for large projects. The First Home Loan offers 5% deposits with income caps of $95,000 (single) and $150,000 (couple); the bright-line test is two years and interest deductibility has been restored for landlords.

The options on the table

Option	Backed by
Free up supply through planning and consenting reform	National Opportunity
Build more state and social housing directly	Labour Greens Te Pāti Māori
Tax property gains, land or vacancy to curb speculation	Labour Greens Te Pāti Māori Opportunity
Regulate rents and rental quality	Greens Te Pāti Māori
Ease tax and rules on landlords	ACT
Make new housing prove infrastructure capacity	NZ First
Help first-home buyers with deposits	National

Where each party stands

Voter priorities out of 15 (the four core tests plus relief this term) and Readiness to 2050 out of 21 (the four core tests plus the three long-run tests). Current settings come first, as the bar to beat. Open a party for every test score, the rationale and the sources.

Current settings

Voter priorities: 9/15
Readiness to 2050: 13/21

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Going for Housing Growth targets the land-supply driver through the RMA replacement and is funded within current baselines, but it is still being legislated and names no losers. Calibrated to the v1 housing score (13).

Relief this term

Going for Housing Growth zoning and fast-track consents add supply slowly, mostly after 2029; the existing First Home Loan continues but is not new relief.

Sources

National

Voter priorities: 10/15
Readiness to 2050: 14/21

Keep the planning reforms going and widen help with deposits.

Open the 5% deposit First Home Loan to buyers earning under $300,000 (fiscal cost $4m to $6m)
Engineers sign off parts of building work; a national consent authority for large commercial builds
Councils recover infrastructure costs from fast-track developments; development levies by 2029
Let councils set minimum car parking for new housing outside intensification areas

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	3	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Builds on the Government's supply reforms with consenting fixes and development levies, all inside its fiscal plan and with a track record in office. Wider 5% deposits add demand and parking minimums cut against intensification; no losers named.

Relief this term

Opening 5% deposit First Home Loans to buyers earning under $300,000 helps some first-home buyers with the deposit hurdle, but its fiscal cost of $4m to $6m signals a modest effect and no start date is given; consenting reforms and development levies (by 2029) build supply slowly.

Sources

Labour

Voter priorities: 10/15
Readiness to 2050: 14/21

Build more social housing through Kāinga Ora and tax investment property gains.

$2.9b capital for Kāinga Ora over four years; at least 6,000 more social housing places
Keep income-related rents for social tenants at 25% of income (reverse the Budget 2026 rise to 30%)
Remove rough sleeping and begging from the Move On Bill
Capital gains tax on investment property (homed in G09; informs this score)

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	2	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names a shortfall of social housing and the tax treatment of property; $2.9b for Kāinga Ora is in its fiscal plan (party-commissioned review, so 2). Says investors pay the gains tax, but has no planning or supply policy and the tax is opposed by National, ACT and NZ First.

Relief this term

Keeping income-related rents at 25% of income reverses the Budget 2026 rise to 30% from 2027, a direct and dated saving for social housing tenants; the 6,000 extra social places over four years add some relief within the term.

Sources

Greens

Voter priorities: 6/15
Readiness to 2050: 9/21

Build public homes at scale, cap rents and end tax breaks for landlords.

Build tens of thousands of public homes (uncosted); same-day placement for people who are homeless
Cap rent rises at 2% a year, with new-tenancy rents linked to the previous rent
Independently certified Rental Warrant of Fitness and tighter Healthy Homes Standards
Remove interest deductibility for landlords and restore a 10-year bright-line test

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names housing as an investment vehicle as the driver and says landlords and speculators pay. The main promise, tens of thousands of public homes, is uncosted and a 2% rent cap risks cutting rental supply; only the tax and insulation parts are costed.

Relief this term

A 2% annual cap on rent rises would be broad relief for renters if in force, but no start date or legislated timetable is given; tens of thousands of public homes are uncosted and mostly land after 2029.

Sources

ACT

Voter priorities: 7/15
Readiness to 2050: 9/21

Cut tax costs for landlords so they are not passed on to renters.

Let residential landlords offset rental losses against other income, as commercial landlords can ($1.14b over four years)

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	1	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

A single tax change for landlords, costed at $1.14b in ACT's fiscal plan, rests on an asserted pass-through to rents. It does not address supply, and it would likely be reversed by the left bloc.

Relief this term

Letting residential landlords offset rental losses ($1.14b over four years) is a tax cut for landlords; any relief for renters depends on an asserted pass-through to rents.

Sources

NZ First

Voter priorities: 4/15
Readiness to 2050: 7/21

More housing, but only where infrastructure can cope; citizens first for social housing.

Fast-track housing applicants must show what infrastructure they need and whether it is funded; councils advise on capacity
Change the law so NZ citizens move up the social housing waitlist ahead of residents

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	0	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	0	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names infrastructure capacity as a real constraint on growth, but adds a test to fast-track housing without funding the pipes, which may slow supply. No fiscal plan; citizens-first allocation names who loses but does not add homes.

Relief this term

Adding an infrastructure test to fast-track housing may slow approvals, and moving citizens up the social housing waitlist reorders the queue without adding homes; nothing lowers rents or prices this term.

Sources

Te Pāti Māori

Voter priorities: 6/15
Readiness to 2050: 9/21

Build public and affordable homes, enable building on Māori land and tax vacancy and land banking.

Build 2,000 homes on ancestral Māori land within four years, plus more public and affordable homes
Universal rent control: freeze all rents
2% vacant house tax and a 33% land banking tax
Change rules to make it easier to build on Māori and ancestral land

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names land banking and barriers on Māori land as drivers, and says vacant owners and buyers pay. The homes promise is not costed (only the taxes are, in its tax plan), and rent control and stamp duty can cut supply and turnover.

Relief this term

2,000 homes on ancestral Māori land within four years is dated but narrow; the universal rent freeze would be broad, but it is not on the live housing page, and the 5% stamp duty raises costs for some buyers.

Sources

Opportunity

Voter priorities: 10/15
Readiness to 2050: 16/21

Make homes cheaper by building more: national zoning plus a land value tax.

Replace over 1,000 planning zones with 10 national zones; national pre-approval for prefab and modular builds
1.75% urban land value tax, which the party says would lower house prices 10% to 15%
Underwrite affordable developments to smooth the build cycle; low-cost Crown finance for councils, community providers and iwi
Refund GST to councils on high-standard new builds

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	3	Both scores
Mechanism	3	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	3	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	3	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names land prices and zoning as the driver with evidence, and sets a measurable aim of prices 10% to 15% lower (undated). The land tax is costed in its tax package but is outside its coalition bottom lines, so delivery and durability are weak; it says plainly that prices must fall.

Relief this term

National zoning and a 1.75% land value tax aim to cut prices 10% to 15%, but the effect is undated and builds through new supply; underwriting and GST refunds on new builds are also slow-acting.

Sources

Place yourself

Agreeing sometimes means change and sometimes keeping current settings. Take the quiz to compare across every issue.

Statement	National	Labour	Greens	ACT	NZ First	Te Pāti Māori	Opportunity
Property gains tax. Gains on residential investment property should be taxed.	Disagrees	Agrees	Agrees	Disagrees	Disagrees	Mixed	Mixed
Rent cap. Annual rent rises should be capped by law.	No stated position	No stated position	Agrees	No stated position	No stated position	Agrees	No stated position
6,000 more social homes. Kāinga Ora should add at least 6,000 social housing places over the next four years.	No stated position	Agrees	Agrees	No stated position	No stated position	Agrees	Mixed
Landlord loss offset. Residential landlords should be able to offset rental losses against their other income.	No stated position	No stated position	Disagrees	Agrees	No stated position	No stated position	No stated position
Fast-track housing. Fast-track housing consents should continue without a test of local infrastructure capacity.	Agrees	No stated position	No stated position	No stated position	Disagrees	No stated position	No stated position

✓ Agrees, ○ Mixed, ✗ Disagrees, · No stated position. Silence is a finding.

Why each statement matters

Property gains tax Gains on residential investment property should be taxed.
What it means
Profit from selling a rental is mostly untaxed unless sold within two years (the bright-line test). This would tax those gains; one proposal is 28% from July 2027, family homes exempt.
The case for
It taxes property gains like wages and may cool speculation that pushes prices up.
The case against
A new tax adds cost and complexity for investors, which could cut rental supply and lift rents.
The trade-off
Taxing property gains like income versus less investment in rentals.
Rent cap Annual rent rises should be capped by law.
What it means
Rents are not capped by law now. This would limit yearly rent rises by law, for example to 2% a year.
The case for
Tenants get predictable costs and protection from rises they cannot afford.
The case against
Caps make renting out property less attractive, so fewer rentals may be offered.
The trade-off
Security for today's tenants versus the supply of rentals for future ones.
6,000 more social homes Kāinga Ora should add at least 6,000 social housing places over the next four years.
What it means
Kāinga Ora is the government agency that builds and manages state houses. This would fund it to add at least 6,000 social housing places in four years; one proposal costs this at $2.9b.
The case for
The state can house people in need directly instead of waiting for the market.
The case against
It costs billions, and private or community builders may deliver homes more cheaply.
The trade-off
More homes for people in need versus money that cannot go elsewhere.
Landlord loss offset Residential landlords should be able to offset rental losses against their other income.
What it means
Residential landlords whose rent does not cover costs cannot now use that loss to cut tax on other income; commercial landlords can. This would let them, costing about $1.14b over four years.
The case for
It treats rental housing like any other business and may encourage more rentals.
The case against
It costs over $1b and mostly helps investors who borrow heavily.
The trade-off
Consistent tax rules versus lost revenue and a tilt towards property.
Fast-track housing Fast-track housing consents should continue without a test of local infrastructure capacity.
What it means
Large housing projects can now get fast-track consent without showing local pipes and roads can cope. Disagreeing would make developers show what infrastructure they need and whether it is funded.
The case for
Fewer hurdles mean homes get built sooner, with costs recovered through development levies.
The case against
Without a capacity test, new homes may overload pipes and roads, leaving ratepayers to fix them.
The trade-off
Faster housing supply versus assurance that pipes and roads can cope.

The 2050 test

Opportunity's zoning and land tax package and the Government's Going for Housing Growth programme build the 2050 position, because they target land supply, the driver of long-run prices; Labour's extra social homes also add lasting stock. ACT's landlord tax change and National's wider 5% deposits mostly add demand, and the Greens' and Te Pāti Māori's promises borrow on uncosted building. Nobody sets a dated target for prices or ownership, or says who pays for the infrastructure that new homes need beyond development charges.

Party	Effect to 2050	The policy that drives it	Would it last?
National	Builds	Consenting reforms and development levies on top of Going for Housing Growth. Easier consents and cost recovery for infrastructure raise the supply of serviced land, which lowers housing costs relative to incomes. Source	Partly
Labour	Builds	$2.9b for Kāinga Ora, at least 6,000 social places. Adds permanent social stock that lowers housing costs for low-income households, though it does not change land supply. Source	Partly
Greens	Neutral	Tens of thousands of public homes and a 2% rent cap. Uncosted building may not happen, and a rent cap can reduce rental supply, so the net effect on housing costs is unclear. Source	No
ACT	Neutral	Rental loss offset for landlords. Lowers investors' tax costs but adds no supply, so any effect on rents is uncertain. Source	No
NZ First	Neutral	Infrastructure capacity test for fast-track housing. Better-serviced growth, but an unfunded test may slow new supply. Source	Partly
Te Pāti Māori	Neutral	Public homes, Māori land rules and vacancy taxes. Easier building on Māori land helps supply, but uncosted building and rent control offset it. Source	No
Opportunity	Builds	10 national zones and a 1.75% land value tax. More zoned land and a tax on holding it lower land prices, which cuts housing costs and frees capital for productive investment. Source	No

Since 19 October (not yet scored)

Labour: Repeal the law that could criminalise rough sleeping (final leaders' debate, 20 October). Source

All sources for this grouping are listed on the sources page.