This term, issue by issue · Education and skills

Education: National and Labour lead; the bigger risk is the curriculum changing with every government

What is at stake now and by 2050

This term

Too many children are not in class often enough, and results in reading, writing and maths have slipped. This term parents also face a second round of curriculum and qualification changes, and rising school costs.

Number to know

64.3% of students were present for more than 90% of Term 2 2026, against a government target of 80%.

Source: DPMC, Government Targets factsheet: Target 6, regular school attendance (June 2026 update)

By 2050

As the population ages, fewer workers will support each retiree, so each worker's skills and output matter more for incomes and tax. Children now in school will be the core of that workforce through the 2050s, and AI will change which skills pay.

Number to know

3.8 working-age people for each person over 65 today; about 2.8 by 2050.

Source: Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)

Current settings

A new Years 0 to 10 curriculum built on structured literacy and maths (schools have until 2029), with NCEA being replaced by the NZCE and NZACE from 2028, a phone ban and an 80% attendance target. School lunches run on a cheaper central model funded to 2029; tertiary is fees-free in the final year only.

The options on the table

Option	Backed by
Continue and extend this term's curriculum and NCEA replacement	National
Pause or reset the reforms and hand curriculum design to an independent body	Labour Greens Opportunity
Locally made or expanded school lunches	Labour Greens Te Pāti Māori Opportunity
Free or better-resourced early childhood education	Greens Te Pāti Māori Opportunity
Student loan relief	National Labour Greens Opportunity
More trades training and apprenticeships	National Labour Greens
Classroom discipline and lower school costs	Labour ACT
Māori-led education authority	Greens Te Pāti Māori

Where each party stands

Voter priorities out of 15 (the four core tests plus relief this term) and Readiness to 2050 out of 21 (the four core tests plus the three long-run tests). Current settings come first, as the bar to beat. Open a party for every test score, the rationale and the sources.

Current settings

Voter priorities: 9/15
Readiness to 2050: 12/21

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names falling literacy and maths results and responds with structured literacy, a new curriculum and an 80% attendance target, funded in Budget 2026 and being delivered by the Ministry. Attendance sits at 64.3%, the NZCE replacement is untested, and school lunches are funded only to 2029, so Future effect is 1. The curriculum is gazetted and backed by all three coalition parties.

Relief this term

The structured literacy curriculum, phone ban and 80% attendance target continue, and school lunches run on the cheaper central model to 2029. Attendance is 64.3% against the target and the curriculum has until 2029 to bed in, so effects on results land mostly after the term.

Sources

National

Voter priorities: 10/15
Readiness to 2050: 14/21

Finish this term's reforms and go further: grades and exams, tighter screen rules, more trades places.

Replace NCEA with A+ to E grades and regular exams; new curriculum embedded at all levels
Students must finish Year 11 or turn 16, whichever is later; no screens in ECE, strict limits in Years 1 to 3
Double Trades Academy places to 20,000 by 2030; 704 onsite teacher training places a year from 2028
Student loan repayment rate cut from 12% to 10% ($77m plus $296m in 2026/27); tougher recovery from overseas borrowers

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	3	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names a driver (falling maths and reading, screens, untrained teachers) and sets measurable targets (20,000 Trades Academy places by 2030, 704 teacher places from 2028). Costed in its fiscal plan and delivered by the agency already doing the work. A switch to A+ to E grades is plausible but untested, and no trade-offs of a second qualification change are named.

Relief this term

Core school offers (A+ to E grades replacing NCEA, Year 11 leaving rule, 20,000 Trades Academy places by 2030, 704 teacher places from 2028) are structural and land mostly after 2029. The student loan repayment rate cut from 12% to 10% in 2026/27 gives dated, costed relief to repaying graduates.

Sources

Labour

Voter priorities: 10/15
Readiness to 2050: 13/21

Pause the curriculum rollout, set up an independent curriculum body, and cut school and student costs.

Independent Council for Curriculum and Assessment (about $500,000 a year); pause unimplemented curriculum changes for a year; NCEA unchanged until 2029
Fresh, locally made school lunches from Term 1 2028 at $5 a meal ($6.50 for Years 9 to 13); fewer branded uniform items
Apprenticeship Boost extended to two years with a $1,000 toolbox grant ($56.5m a year); Māori trades training fund ($21m a year)
Write off 10% of student loans for graduates who stay in New Zealand (about $40m a year by 2031)

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	2	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names churn in curriculum and assessment as a driver and proposes an independent council with a dated start (expert group within three months), plus funded apprenticeships and school costs in its reviewed fiscal plan. The council builds stability and is shared by Opportunity; the costs of a year's pause for schools mid-rollout are not named. The council policy is sourced from an on-record spokesperson statement, not a party page.

Relief this term

Fresh, locally made school lunches from Term 1 2028 at $5 a meal ($6.50 for Years 9 to 13) and fewer branded uniform items give dated cost relief to families this term. The apprentice toolbox grant is scored in G03; the curriculum pause holds settings steady, and the 10% loan write-off builds to 2031.

Sources

Greens

Voter priorities: 8/15
Readiness to 2050: 9/21

Free early childhood and tertiary education, permanent school lunches, and a reset of this term's reforms.

Cap ECE fees at $10 a day, then 35 free hours a week by 2029; end public funding for for-profit centres by 2028
Restore and permanently fund Ka Ora, Ka Ako, extended to about 400 more schools (150,000 more children)
Fees-free tertiary education, a universal student allowance and paid work placements
Reset the curriculum and NCEA changes; $50m a year for te reo Māori, including teacher training

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	2	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names cost and under-resourcing as barriers and sets dated targets for ECE (35 free hours by 2029) and lunches (400 more schools). Lunches and te reo sit in the party's costed table, but free ECE, fees-free tertiary and a universal allowance are uncosted, and delivery is mostly intent.

Relief this term

Restoring Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunches and extending them to about 150,000 more children is booked in the Greens' costed table, noticeable relief for many families this term. The $10 a day ECE cap is undated and 35 funded hours by 2029 is a target, and fees-free tertiary has no start date.

Sources

ACT

Voter priorities: 7/15
Readiness to 2050: 11/21

Order in class, lower school costs and more choice.

Legal power for teachers to remove seriously disruptive students; parents fined for missing behaviour meetings
Limit state schools to three compulsory branded uniform items
Index private school subsidies to public school grants ($100m over four years) and a $500 investment fund for Year 11 students ($35m a year)
Ban ethnicity-based support at universities; make Student Services Fees voluntary

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	1	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	2	Both scores
Delivery	2	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Targets symptoms (classroom disruption, uniform costs) rather than what drives achievement or skills, and offers little on teaching, trades or tertiary. Its costed items sit in the fiscal plan and use named law changes; it names who pays (parents fined, other education spending cut for buses). Labour shares the uniform policy.

Relief this term

A three-item cap on branded uniforms, legal power to remove seriously disruptive students and a $500 fund for Year 11 students offer some relief to parents and classrooms, but no start dates are given and the reach on attendance and results is narrow.

Sources

NZ First

Voter priorities: 3/15
Readiness to 2050: 6/21

No stated schools or skills plan; only nutrition teaching and tighter student visas.

Promote nutrition from primary school to medical school
Remove automatic work rights from student visas

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	1	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	0	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	0	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Not silent, but only peripheral items: nutrition teaching and student visa work rights (scored mainly in migration). No schools, early childhood or skills policy, no cost and no trade-offs.

Relief this term

Only nutrition teaching and removing student visa work rights; nothing lands on attendance, results or school costs by 2029.

Sources

Te Pāti Māori

Voter priorities: 6/15
Readiness to 2050: 8/21

A Māori Education Authority and more money for kōhanga, kura and wānanga.

Create a Māori Education Authority to govern Māori education
Te reo Māori a core subject to Year 10; mātauranga Māori across the curriculum
Kōhanga reo capital fund of $20m a year plus a one-off $50m for about 80 new builds or refurbishments; a Kōhanga Reo Act
Expanded school lunches, free public transport for students, free school counselling

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	1	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names a driver (a system that does not connect Māori learners to identity) and states some costs (kōhanga capital $20m a year plus $50m), but gives no funding source, timeline or evidence path for a Māori Education Authority. The Greens back a similar authority, but a change of government would likely undo it.

Relief this term

The main offer, a Māori Education Authority and te reo as a core subject, is structural and lands after 2029. Expanded lunches, free student transport and free counselling would relieve costs for many families but have no start date; the $20m a year kōhanga capital fund helps a small group.

Sources

Opportunity

Voter priorities: 7/15
Readiness to 2050: 11/21

A ten-year cross-party education plan with curriculum set by an independent council.

Ten-year cross-party education plan; independent council for curriculum and assessment, including a review of the NCEA replacement
Better ECE ratios (1:3 under two, 1:5 two to three, 1:8 over three) and more core funding for community services
20-year Skills and Learning Accord for universities, wānanga and polytechs; restore adult and community education
Forgive student loan interest for returning Kiwis, for up to three years overseas (about $95m)

Test scores, rationale and sources

Test	Score /3	Counts towards
Diagnosis	2	Both scores
Mechanism	2	Both scores
Funding	1	Both scores
Delivery	1	Both scores
Relief	1	Voter priorities
Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

Rationale

Names politicisation and short-term churn as drivers of falling results and proposes an independent curriculum council, measurable ECE ratios and a 20-year tertiary accord. Costs are 'spread over ten years' with only loan forgiveness ($95m) stated; delivery depends on cross-party agreement. Labour proposes a similar council.

Relief this term

A ten-year cross-party plan, an independent curriculum council and a 20-year tertiary accord are plans whose effect falls after 2029. Better ECE ratios have no date, and loan interest forgiveness for returning Kiwis reaches a small group.

Sources

Place yourself

Agreeing sometimes means change and sometimes keeping current settings. Take the quiz to compare across every issue.

Statement	National	Labour	Greens	ACT	NZ First	Te Pāti Māori	Opportunity
NCEA replacement. NCEA should be replaced with new qualifications from 2028, as planned.	Agrees	Disagrees	Disagrees	No stated position	No stated position	No stated position	Mixed
Independent curriculum council. An independent council should set the school curriculum and assessment.	No stated position	Agrees	Mixed	No stated position	No stated position	No stated position	Agrees
Local school lunches. School lunches should be cooked by schools or local providers.	No stated position	Agrees	Agrees	No stated position	No stated position	No stated position	Agrees
Loan repayment rate. Student loan repayments should fall from 12% to 10% of income above the threshold.	Agrees	No stated position	Mixed	No stated position	No stated position	No stated position	No stated position

✓ Agrees, ○ Mixed, ✗ Disagrees, · No stated position. Silence is a finding.

Why each statement matters

NCEA replacement NCEA should be replaced with new qualifications from 2028, as planned.
What it means
NCEA is the main secondary school qualification. It is due to be replaced from 2028 by new qualifications (NZCE and NZACE) with A+ to E grades and more exams. Disagreeing delays or reverses that.
The case for
Clear grades and regular exams could lift standards and make results easier to read.
The case against
Another big change unsettles students and teachers while a new curriculum is still rolling out.
The trade-off
A faster reset of standards versus stability for schools.
Independent curriculum council An independent council should set the school curriculum and assessment.
What it means
Ministers now decide what schools teach and how students are assessed. This would hand that to an independent council.
The case for
It would cut the churn that comes with each change of government, giving schools a steady plan.
The case against
Ministers answer to voters for school results; an independent council would be less accountable.
The trade-off
Long-term stability versus democratic control over what children learn.
Local school lunches School lunches should be cooked by schools or local providers.
What it means
Free school lunches (Ka Ora, Ka Ako) now run on a cheaper central model funded to 2029. This would return to meals cooked by schools or local providers; one proposal pays $5 a meal.
The case for
Locally made meals can be fresher, suit students better and support local jobs.
The case against
The central model costs less per meal, so local cooking means more spending or fewer meals.
The trade-off
Meal quality and local jobs versus how far the funding stretches.
Loan repayment rate Student loan repayments should fall from 12% to 10% of income above the threshold.
What it means
Graduates now repay 12% of income above a set threshold on student loans. This would drop it to 10%.
The case for
Graduates keep more of each pay, easing living costs early in their careers.
The case against
Loans take longer to repay, so the Government gets its money back more slowly.
The trade-off
More take-home pay now versus slower repayment to the Crown.

The 2050 test

National, Labour and Opportunity build the 2050 skills base: National through foundational literacy, trades places and teacher training; Labour and Opportunity through an independent curriculum body that could stop the churn each election brings. The Greens' free ECE and fees-free tertiary would widen access but are uncosted, so they borrow against a budget already squeezed by ageing. Nobody sets out how schools and tertiary providers should retrain workers for AI at scale, or plans for school rolls that will shrink as birth rates fall.

Party	Effect to 2050	The policy that drives it	Would it last?
National	Builds	Structured literacy and maths, Year 11 leaving rule, 20,000 Trades Academy places. Stronger foundational skills and more trade-ready school leavers lift the skills of the future workforce. Source	Partly
Labour	Builds	Independent curriculum council and extended Apprenticeship Boost. Stable, expert-led curriculum and longer apprentice support raise skills without a reset each election. Source	Partly
Greens	Neutral	Free ECE and fees-free tertiary. Wider access could raise skills, but the main promises are uncosted, so the net effect is unclear. Source	No
ACT	Neutral	Classroom discipline and lower uniform costs. May protect teaching time, but does not change what or how students learn at scale. Source	Partly
NZ First	Neutral	Nutrition teaching; student visa work limits. No schools or skills plan, so no effect on workforce skills either way. Source	No
Te Pāti Māori	Neutral	Māori Education Authority and kōhanga funding. Could improve Māori learner outcomes, but no evidence path or funding source, and likely to be reversed. Source	No
Opportunity	Builds	Ten-year education plan, independent council, 20-year Skills and Learning Accord. Long-term, cross-party planning links school, vocational and academic learning to future skill needs. Source	Partly

All sources for this grouping are listed on the sources page.