Migration: few plans say how many people New Zealand will need by 2050

What is at stake now and by 2050

Current settings

Settings are employer-led: the Accredited Employer Work Visa, residence after two years for some skilled workers, citizenship after five, a new Parent Boost visa and a loosened Active Investor Plus visa. Residents can get most benefits after two years; there is no population target or immigration policy statement.

The options on the table

Where each party stands

Voter priorities out of 15 (the four core tests plus relief this term) and Readiness to 2050 out of 21 (the four core tests plus the three long-run tests). Current settings come first, as the bar to beat. Open a party for every test score, the rationale and the sources.

• Current settings

  Voter priorities

  8/15

  Readiness to 2050

  11/21

  Test scores, rationale and sources for Current settings

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	1	Both scores
  Mechanism	1	Both scores
  Funding	2	Both scores
  Delivery	3	Both scores
  Relief	1	Voter priorities
  Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  Current settings respond to employer demand visa by visa, with no population goal or link to housing and infrastructure capacity, and do nothing direct about citizen departures. Visa settings are funded and run by Immigration NZ (Delivery 2), but change with each government.

  Relief this term

  Employer-led settings (Accredited Employer Work Visa, two-year skilled residence, the new Parent Boost visa) keep filling some skill gaps, but nothing addresses citizen departures, which hit a 2013-high in early 2026.

  Sources

  • OECD International Migration Outlook 2025: New Zealand
  • China Daily HK, citing Stats NZ

• National

  Voter priorities

  8/15

  Readiness to 2050

  12/21

  Bring Kiwis home and tighten welfare access for new residents.

  • Prioritise and expedite work and visitor visas for partners of NZ citizens (first 100 days)
  • Benefit eligibility for new residents from two to five years from 2028; refugees exempt (saves $49m over four years)
  • Extra 1% interest and stronger recovery for overseas student loan defaulters; $10m to IRD
  • Trial digital trans-Tasman travel (home in G12)
  Test scores, rationale and sources for National

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	2	Both scores
  Mechanism	1	Both scores
  Funding	2	Both scores
  Delivery	2	Both scores
  Relief	1	Voter priorities
  Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  National names a driver (young people choosing to raise families elsewhere) and its items are in the fiscal plan, but faster partner visas and loan penalties are small levers against the Australian wage gap. The benefit stand-down names who pays (new residents) and the saving ($49m over four years).

  Relief this term

  Faster partner visas for citizens' partners in the first 100 days is dated but helps a small group. The benefit stand-down from 2028 and tougher loan recovery do not relieve departures or pressure on services this term.

  Sources

  • National's plan to welcome more Kiwis home
  • A firm, fair and affordable welfare system
  • National, Fiscal plan
  • Back Pocket Boost for Graduates (31 August 2026)

• Labour

  Voter priorities

  7/15

  Readiness to 2050

  10/21

  Plan migration around capacity, protect migrant workers, and widen Pacific access.

  • Government Policy Statement setting immigration goals around workforce, housing and infrastructure
  • Residence qualifying period from two to four years, with civic orientation
  • Migrants can move between accredited employers after three months
  • Citizenship pathway for NZ-born children; visa-waiver visits for Pacific Islands Forum citizens
  Test scores, rationale and sources for Labour

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	2	Both scores
  Mechanism	2	Both scores
  Funding	0	Both scores
  Delivery	2	Both scores
  Relief	1	Voter priorities
  Future effect	2	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  Labour names a driver (intake not matched to housing and infrastructure) and a named vehicle, a Government Policy Statement, which would make capacity planning routine: a modest long-run build. No costs, numbers or timelines are given (Funding 1, generous; see flags), and it does not say who loses from the longer residence wait.

  Relief this term

  A Government Policy Statement linking intake to housing and infrastructure is a plan; a longer residence wait and freer employer moves after three months help or affect specific groups, with no start dates. Little lands on departures by 2029.

  Sources

  • Labour to ensure an immigration system that works for New Zealand
  • Labour will expand visa-waiver travel to Pacific citizens

• Greens

  Voter priorities

  4/15

  Readiness to 2050

  6/21

  More humanitarian and Pacific access, residency pathways, and stronger ties to New Zealanders overseas.

  • Refugee quota to 5,000 by 2029; clear family reunification backlogs
  • Residency pathways for long-settled migrants, including some with expired visas; open work rights
  • Replace the RSE scheme; extend visa-free travel to Pacific citizens
  • Abolish acceptable standards of health rules; citizenship for all with Māori whakapapa; longer overseas voting rights
  Test scores, rationale and sources for Greens

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	1	Both scores
  Mechanism	1	Both scores
  Funding	0	Both scores
  Delivery	1	Both scores
  Relief	1	Voter priorities
  Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  The Greens focus on fairness for migrants and refugees (exploitation, family reunification) rather than on the size or skills of the population. The 5,000 refugee quota and the end to health screening are uncosted, with no delivery timeline beyond 2029.

  Relief this term

  A refugee quota of 5,000 by 2029, residency pathways for long-settled migrants and clearing family reunification backlogs would help particular migrant groups, but most items have no start date and none addresses departures or skill gaps.

  Sources

  • Immigration and Refugees
  • Overseas New Zealanders
  • Pacific Peoples (13 August 2026)

• ACT

  Voter priorities

  8/15

  Readiness to 2050

  12/21

  Make migrants pay their way and tighten residence rules.

  • $6 a day infrastructure surcharge on temporary work visas (ACT estimate $80m a year; not in its fiscal plan)
  • Replace permanent residence with a resident visa requiring two of every five years in NZ
  • Five-year benefit stand-down for residents; English test for all accredited employer visas
  • 12-month expiry on accredited employer visas; overstayer enforcement unit; deport residents for serious offences
  Test scores, rationale and sources for ACT

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	2	Both scores
  Mechanism	2	Both scores
  Funding	1	Both scores
  Delivery	2	Both scores
  Relief	1	Voter priorities
  Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	2	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  ACT names a driver (temporary migrants use infrastructure they do not fund) with a concrete levy and revenue estimate ($80m a year) that names who pays. The levy is not shown as a line in its fiscal plan (Funding 1), and the tighter visa rules shrink intake without a view on population size.

  Relief this term

  A $6 a day surcharge on temporary work visas (about $80m a year) and tighter residence and benefit rules give a small, undated contribution to infrastructure pressure and nothing on departures.

  Sources

  • A Fair Contribution
  • ACT's new immigration policy
  • ACT, Fiscal Plan 2026
  • Deport Serious Offenders (7 August 2026)

• NZ First

  Voter priorities

  6/15

  Readiness to 2050

  9/21

  Cut and condition migration: a referendum on a 20,000 resident visa cap and longer paths to citizenship.

  • Referendum on a legislated cap of 20,000 resident visas a year; a 30-year Population Plan tied to infrastructure
  • Citizenship after at least 10 years, residence after five; 10-year benefit stand-down; NZ Super for citizens only
  • Replace the Accredited Employer Work Visa with a shortage-led visa and wage floor; end automatic student work rights
  • Wider deportation; overstayer amnesty to self-deport; citizenship by birth only for children of citizens
  Test scores, rationale and sources for NZ First

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	2	Both scores
  Mechanism	2	Both scores
  Funding	0	Both scores
  Delivery	1	Both scores
  Relief	1	Voter priorities
  Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	2	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  NZ First names a driver (net migration outrunning infrastructure) and a hard lever, a 20,000 cap with a 30-year Population Plan, but no costing, no referendum date and no evidence of the cap's effect on the workforce. It names who pays (non-citizens), but not the cost of a smaller workforce to an ageing population.

  Relief this term

  The main lever, a 20,000 resident visa cap, depends on a referendum with no date, and the 30-year Population Plan is a plan. Replacing the Accredited Employer Work Visa could tighten skill supply this term.

  Sources

  • NZ First announces immigration reform policies
  • NZ First to scrap Accredited Working Visa model
  • NZ Super for citizens only (6 September 2026)

• Te Pāti Māori

  Voter priorities

  0/15

  Readiness to 2050

  0/21

  Silent: nothing on record by 19 October 2026.

  No stated position on migration or population.

  Test scores, rationale and sources for Te Pāti Māori

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	0	Both scores
  Mechanism	0	Both scores
  Funding	0	Both scores
  Delivery	0	Both scores
  Relief	0	Voter priorities
  Future effect	0	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	0	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	0	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  Silent: no migration or population policy found on the party's site or in the Policy.nz migration topic to 19 October 2026.

  Relief this term

  Silent: no migration or population policy found to 19 October 2026.

  Sources

  • Te Pāti Māori, policy pages

• Opportunity

  Voter priorities

  6/15

  Readiness to 2050

  8/21

  Keep young Kiwis here through a stronger economy; a cross-party population strategy.

  • Forgive student loan interest for Kiwis who return ($95m a year)
  • Launch a cross-party population strategy (no detail published)
  Test scores, rationale and sources for Opportunity

  Test	Score /3	Counts towards
  Diagnosis	2	Both scores
  Mechanism	1	Both scores
  Funding	1	Both scores
  Delivery	1	Both scores
  Relief	1	Voter priorities
  Future effect	1	Readiness to 2050
  Durability	1	Readiness to 2050
  Candour	1	Readiness to 2050

  Rationale

  Opportunity ties talent loss to weak productivity and costs a $95m a year loan-interest offer for returning Kiwis, funded at package level from its Tax Reset. The population strategy is a one-line intent with no content.

  Relief this term

  Forgiving loan interest for returning Kiwis ($95m a year) helps a small group with no start date; the population strategy has no content.

  Sources

  • Breakthrough Economy

Place yourself

Agreeing sometimes means change and sometimes keeping current settings. Take the quiz to compare across every issue.

✓ Agrees, ○ Mixed, ✗ Disagrees, · No stated position. Silence is a finding.

Why each statement matters

• Resident visa cap The number of resident visas should be capped at 20,000 a year.

  What it means

  Resident visa numbers now follow employer demand, with no population target. This would set a legal limit of 20,000 a year.

  The case for

  A fixed number lets housing, roads and services be planned to match new residents.

  The case against

  A hard cap could leave health and construction short of workers as the population ages.

  The trade-off

  Predictable growth versus fewer workers to support a growing number of retirees.

• Longer wait for residence Migrants should wait longer than two years before qualifying for permanent residence.

  What it means

  Some skilled migrants can now get permanent residence after two years. This would make them wait longer, for example four or five years.

  The case for

  A longer wait means people show they are settled and committed before getting permanent rights.

  The case against

  Longer waits keep workers on temporary visas, and skilled people may choose countries with faster routes.

  The trade-off

  More time to test commitment versus losing skilled migrants elsewhere.

• Benefit stand-down New residents should wait at least five years before they can get a benefit.

  What it means

  New residents can now get most benefits after two years. This would make them wait at least five years; one proposal exempts refugees.

  The case for

  It saves money (about $49m over four years in one estimate) and expects newcomers to support themselves.

  The case against

  New arrivals who lose work through no fault of their own would have little to fall back on.

  The trade-off

  Welfare savings versus a safety net for newcomers.

• Keep employer-led visas The Accredited Employer Work Visa should continue as the main skilled work visa.

  What it means

  The Accredited Employer Work Visa lets approved employers hire skilled workers from overseas. Disagreeing would replace it with a visa based on a shortage list and a wage floor.

  The case for

  Employers know which skills they need and can fill gaps quickly without waiting for a list.

  The case against

  Employer-led visas can hold down local wages; a shortage list targets real gaps.

  The trade-off

  Flexibility for employers versus tighter control over who comes and at what pay.

The 2050 test

Labour's capacity-based policy statement and NZ First's 30-year Population Plan are the only answers that would tie migration to housing and infrastructure for the long run, though neither sets out a population path. National, ACT and NZ First's longer stand-downs save money now but shrink the pool of working-age migrants an ageing population will need. Nobody states what population or worker-to-retiree ratio they are aiming for, or how they would close the wage gap that drives citizens to Australia.