This term, issue by issue · Tax, public finances and retirement
Tax and retirement: ACT is the only party that bends the long-run budget, and its key policy is the most at risk
ACT is the only party whose plan clearly builds the 2050 fiscal position, through a later Super age and spending cuts, but NZ First's bottom line makes it fragile.
What is at stake now and by 2050
This term
The budget is still in deficit, with surplus forecast for 2028/29, and the parties split on whether to tax capital and land or hold the tax mix and restrain spending. NZ Super is the largest single line, and only one party proposes changing its age.
Number to know
NZ Super costs about $23b a year today (Treasury).
Source: Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)
By 2050
By 2050 there are 2.8 working-age people per person over 65, against 3.8 now, and Super and health costs rise faster than tax. Without changes, net core Crown debt climbs steadily from about 40% of GDP in 2031.
Number to know
Net core Crown debt reaches about 96% of GDP by 2050 if nothing changes (this report's rebasing of Treasury's 2025 path onto PREFU 2026); NZ Super rises from $23b to $76b a year.
Source: Treasury, He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-term Fiscal Statement)
Current settings
NZ Super is paid from 65 and indexed to wages; there is no capital gains, wealth or land tax; income tax runs from 10.5% to 39% and company tax is 28% with Investment Boost. Treasury's pre-election forecast (PREFU 2026) returns to surplus in 2028/29 with debt about 39.5% of GDP in 2030/31.
The options on the table
| Option | Backed by |
|---|---|
| Hold the tax mix and restrain spending under fiscal rules |
|
| Tax capital gains on investment property |
|
| Tax wealth and inheritances, and raise company tax on the largest firms |
|
| Swap taxes on work for a land value tax |
|
| Raise the NZ Super age to 67 |
|
| Keep the Super age at 65 and limit Super to citizens |
|
| Make KiwiSaver compulsory and lift contributions |
|
| An independent costing office for party and government spending |
|
Where each party stands
Voter priorities out of 15 (the four core tests plus relief this term) and Readiness to 2050 out of 21 (the four core tests plus the three long-run tests). Current settings come first, as the bar to beat. Open a party for every test score, the rationale and the sources.
Current settings
- Voter priorities
- 8/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 11/21
Test scores, rationale and sources for Current settings
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 1 Both scores Mechanism 1 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 3 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 2 Readiness to 2050 Candour 1 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Current settings return to surplus in 2028/29 on Treasury's forecast and run through the Public Finance Act, but leave Super, health cost growth and a narrow tax base untouched, so debt rises to about 96% of GDP by 2050.
Relief this term
Super stays at 65 indexed to wages and Treasury forecasts a surplus in 2028/29, but nothing new lands for households this term.
Sources
National
- Voter priorities
- 10/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 14/21
No new taxes, fiscal rules to shrink spending and debt, and compulsory KiwiSaver.
- Surplus by 2028/29 ($4.0b); net debt below 40% of GDP; spending towards 30% of GDP
- No new taxes this term (bottom line); fuel excise rises in 5c steps from 2028
- Compulsory KiwiSaver from July 2028, 12% combined by 2032; $1,500 Baby Boost at birth
- All commitments inside Treasury's $24b of operating allowances
Test scores, rationale and sources for National
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 3 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 3 Readiness to 2050 Candour 1 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Fiscal rules (surplus 2028/29, debt below 40%, spending towards 30% of GDP) are costed in its fiscal plan and credible this term, and compulsory KiwiSaver has cross-bloc support; but no new taxes and silence on Super leave 2050 debt near 96%, and it never says where a 30% spending ceiling would bite.
Relief this term
No new taxes and a $4.0b surplus target in 2028/29 hold the line rather than relieve; compulsory KiwiSaver from July 2028 lowers take-home pay this term for later retirement. The $1,500 Baby Boost is an income payment scored in G01.
Sources
Labour
- Voter priorities
- 9/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 13/21
A capital gains tax on investment property, tighter debt goals, and an independent budget office.
- 28% capital gains tax on investment and commercial property gains from 2027 (family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares exempt); about $1.35b a year by 2030/31
- Repeal Investment Boost; $10,000 write-off for small firms
- OBEGAL surplus ($2.0b in 2028/29 in the fiscal plan); net debt towards 20% of GDP; spending and revenue near 33% of GDP
- Parliamentary Budget Office; employer KiwiSaver compulsory at 6% by 2032
Test scores, rationale and sources for Labour
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 2 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 2 Readiness to 2050 Candour 2 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Names the narrow tax base and taxes investment property gains (about $1.35b a year by 2030/31), with a Parliamentary Budget Office and a 20% net debt goal; its costings were reviewed only by its own commissioned firm, and the new revenue is spent, so 2050 debt stays near 96%. Greens and Te Pāti Māori back taxing capital.
Relief this term
Keeps Super at 65 and the Budget 2026 surplus path; the main new policy, a 28% capital gains tax on investment property from 2027, adds tax for a small group rather than relieving most people. The small-firm asset write-off is scored in G03.
Sources
Greens
- Voter priorities
- 7/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 12/21
Tax the very wealthy and largest firms; no 'arbitrary' fiscal limits; nothing on the Super age.
- 2.5% annual tax on net wealth above $10m (about $3.8b to $4.1b a year)
- 33% tax on inheritances and gifts above $1m (family homes and farms exempt)
- 33% company tax for the largest 0.7% of firms; 0.06% bank levy; 10-year bright-line; no interest deductibility for landlords
- Reform public finance rules around resilience and wellbeing; restore a 10-year residence test for Super
Test scores, rationale and sources for Greens
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 1 Both scores Relief 0 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 3 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Diagnoses untaxed wealth with evidence (the richest 311 households at a 9% effective rate) and has its wealth, inheritance and company taxes modelled by the Parliamentary Library, naming who pays and how much; but it is silent on Super and ageing, a wealth tax has no delivery timetable, and uncosted pledges take 2050 debt to about 115%.
Relief this term
Wealth, inheritance and top-company taxes fall on a few and have no delivery timetable; a 10-year residence test for Super narrows access. Nothing in this grouping lands for most households by 2029.
Sources
ACT
- Voter priorities
- 10/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 17/21
Raise the Super age, cut spending and shrink government, then cut taxes.
- NZ Super age to 67 by 2035, three months a year (saves $4.1b over four years); suspend payments into the NZ Super Fund
- Operating allowance cut to $2b; back-office spending to 2017 levels; 19 departments and 18 ministers
- No tax on KiwiSaver earnings, paid for by ending the government KiwiSaver contribution
- Let landlords offset rental losses ($1.14b over four years); budget $13.2b better than forecast over four years
Test scores, rationale and sources for ACT
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 3 Both scores Mechanism 3 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 2 Both scores Relief 0 Voter priorities Future effect 3 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 3 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Names ageing as the driver and uses one of Treasury's costed levers (Super age 67 by 2035, saving $4.1b over four years) inside a full fiscal plan, giving the lowest 2050 debt path (74%, or 85% with left-out costs) and naming who pays; but the Super change collides with an NZ First bottom line.
Relief this term
Raising the Super age three months a year (to 67 by 2035) means those turning 65 this term wait longer, and ending the government KiwiSaver contribution hits low savers. Untaxed KiwiSaver earnings would help savers but has no start date.
Sources
NZ First
- Voter priorities
- 5/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 6/21
No Super age rise, Super for citizens only, and state ownership funded partly by debt; no fiscal plan.
- No rise in the Super age (bottom line); Super for citizens only, phased in over three years
- KiwiSaver at birth with a $1,000 Crown deposit; contributions to 8% then 10%, compulsory
- 20% company tax for firms under $30m turnover (about $1b initially)
- Buy back BNZ using ACC, banking bonds, Crown debt and KiwiSaver capital; up to $100b Future Fund
Test scores, rationale and sources for NZ First
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 1 Both scores Mechanism 1 Both scores Funding 1 Both scores Delivery 1 Both scores Relief 1 Voter priorities Future effect 0 Readiness to 2050 Durability 2 Readiness to 2050 Candour 0 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Keeps Super at 65 as a bottom line and limits it to citizens, adds a 20% small-firm tax rate (about $1b) and a BNZ buy-back funded partly by Crown debt, with no fiscal plan and a claim that growth covers the cost; 2050 debt reaches about 104% (119% with left-out costs).
Relief this term
Keeping Super at 65 protects current settings rather than adding relief; a 20% tax rate for firms under $30m turnover (about $1b) helps small business but is undated, and citizens-only Super, phased over three years, removes it from some residents.
Sources
Te Pāti Māori
- Voter priorities
- 6/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 10/21
Tax wealth, companies and land to pay for lower tax on low earners; nothing on Super.
- Wealth tax from 1.5% above $2m to 2.5% above $10m
- Company tax to 33%; 5% tax on profits sent offshore; $1b to fight tax avoidance
- 33% land banking tax; 2% vacant house tax; 5% stamp duty on residential sales (first-home buyers under $1m exempt)
- Align tax and environmental policy
Test scores, rationale and sources for Te Pāti Māori
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 2 Both scores Mechanism 1 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 1 Both scores Relief 0 Voter priorities Future effect 1 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 2 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
A full tax package moves tax onto wealth over $2m, companies and land to pay for a $30,000 tax-free band, with costed revenue and thin headroom; it has no position on Super or ageing, and 2050 debt barely moves (95%, or 109% with left-out costs).
Relief this term
Wealth, company, land banking and vacant house taxes and a 5% stamp duty on residential sales add costs for those affected, with no stated start dates; nothing on Super.
Sources
Opportunity
- Voter priorities
- 8/15
- Readiness to 2050
- 12/21
Reset the tax system around land, fold Super into a Citizen's Income, and borrow for infrastructure.
- Land value tax of 1.75% on urban land and 0.5% on rural land
- Citizen's Income replaces NZ Super, with a top-up to current Super rates
- Compulsory KiwiSaver rising to 6% plus 6% over eight years
- Up to $60b of infrastructure borrowing over ten years through an Infrastructure Fund, interest kept under 1% of GDP; health to 9% of GDP
Test scores, rationale and sources for Opportunity
Test Score /3 Counts towards Diagnosis 3 Both scores Mechanism 2 Both scores Funding 2 Both scores Delivery 1 Both scores Relief 0 Voter priorities Future effect 0 Readiness to 2050 Durability 1 Readiness to 2050 Candour 3 Readiness to 2050 Rationale
Strongest diagnosis of the tax mix, moving tax from work to land with a modelled 10% to 15% fall in house prices and naming who pays; but the Tax Reset is $0.6b to $1.6b short before its health target, the Citizen's Income tops Super up to current rates (no saving), and 2050 debt runs to about 100% on its own figures and 138% with left-out costs.
Relief this term
A land value tax (1.75% urban, 0.5% rural) adds a new annual cost for land owners, and compulsory KiwiSaver rising over eight years trims take-home pay; the Citizen's Income tops Super up to current rates, so retirees gain nothing new. No start dates are given.
Sources
Place yourself
Agreeing sometimes means change and sometimes keeping current settings. Take the quiz to compare across every issue.
| Statement | National | Labour | Greens | ACT | NZ First | Te Pāti Māori | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super age 67. NZ Super eligibility should rise from 65 to 67. | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position | Agrees | Disagrees | No stated position | Mixed |
| Tax on capital. New Zealand should tax capital gains, wealth or land. | Disagrees | Agrees | Agrees | Disagrees | Disagrees | Agrees | Agrees |
| Compulsory KiwiSaver. KiwiSaver contributions should be compulsory. | Agrees | Mixed | No stated position | Disagrees | Agrees | Mixed | Agrees |
| Keep Investment Boost. The Investment Boost 20% upfront deduction for business assets should continue. | Agrees | Disagrees | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position | No stated position |
✓ Agrees, ○ Mixed, ✗ Disagrees, · No stated position. Silence is a finding.
Why each statement matters
Super age 67 NZ Super eligibility should rise from 65 to 67.
- What it means
- NZ Super, the state pension, is paid from 65 and costs about $23b a year. This would raise the age to 67, three months a year, by 2035.
- The case for
- Super heads for $76b a year by 2050; a later age keeps it affordable with fewer workers per retiree.
- The case against
- It hits people in physically hard jobs who cannot work longer, and those with little other income.
- The trade-off
- Lower long-term costs versus a later pension for everyone.
Tax on capital New Zealand should tax capital gains, wealth or land.
- What it means
- New Zealand has no general tax on capital gains, wealth or land. Options include taxing investment property gains, a wealth tax on the very rich, or a land value tax.
- The case for
- It taxes wealth more like wages, and could fund services or lower taxes on work.
- The case against
- New taxes add cost and complexity, and may push investment and wealthy people offshore.
- The trade-off
- A broader tax base for an ageing country versus the risk of less saving and investment.
Compulsory KiwiSaver KiwiSaver contributions should be compulsory.
- What it means
- KiwiSaver is a retirement savings scheme paid into by workers, employers and the government. New workers are enrolled automatically but can opt out. This would make contributions compulsory for all, rising to 12% combined in some proposals.
- The case for
- More saving builds bigger retirement funds and eases pressure on NZ Super.
- The case against
- Forced saving takes money from tight household budgets now, hitting low earners hardest.
- The trade-off
- Better-funded retirements versus less money in pay packets today.
Keep Investment Boost The Investment Boost 20% upfront deduction for business assets should continue.
- What it means
- Investment Boost lets a business deduct 20% of the cost of new assets, such as machinery, from taxable income straight away. Disagreeing repeals it; one proposal offers a $10,000 small-firm write-off instead.
- The case for
- It encourages firms to invest in machines and technology, which lifts output per worker and wages.
- The case against
- It costs revenue that could fund other priorities, and may reward investment firms would make anyway.
- The trade-off
- Faster business investment versus revenue for other uses.
The 2050 test
ACT is the only party whose plan clearly builds the 2050 fiscal position, through a later Super age and spending cuts, but NZ First's bottom line makes it fragile. NZ First borrows most from the future, while the Greens and Opportunity broaden the tax base but promise more than it raises, and National and Labour leave the debt path where current settings put it. No party proposes changes at the scale Treasury says would hold debt steady, and none says how health spending rising from 6.9% to 9.4% of GDP will be paid for.
| Party | Effect to 2050 | The policy that drives it | Would it last? |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | Neutral | Fiscal rules, no new taxes, compulsory KiwiSaver. Rules hold debt this term and KiwiSaver builds private saving, but Super and health growth are untouched, so 2050 debt matches current settings (about 96%). Source | Partly |
| National | Neutral | Keep Investment Boost; compulsory KiwiSaver. Keeps an investment incentive and grows a domestic capital pool, but leaves untaxed property gains steering capital into housing. Source | Partly |
| Labour | Neutral | Capital gains tax and 20% net debt goal. New revenue is spent on health, so the 2050 debt path stays near 96%. Source | Partly |
| Labour | Neutral | Capital gains tax; repeal Investment Boost. Taxing property gains tilts investment away from housing, but repealing Investment Boost weakens the incentive for business capital. Source | Partly |
| Greens | Neutral | Wealth, inheritance and company taxes. Taxes raise more than costed spending (debt 86% by 2050), but uncosted pledges push it to about 115%. Source | No |
| Greens | Neutral | Wealth tax and 33% tax on large firms. Shifts tax onto capital and large firms with no stated effect on investment or productivity. Source | No |
| ACT | Builds | Super age 67 by 2035 and spending cuts. A later Super age is one of Treasury's costed levers and gives the lowest 2050 debt path (74%). Source | No |
| ACT | Builds | Smaller government and untaxed KiwiSaver earnings. Lower spending and higher after-tax returns on saving free resources for private investment. Source | No |
| NZ First | Borrows | No Super age rise; unfunded spending and debt-funded BNZ buy-back. About $2.3b a year of unfunded spending takes 2050 debt to about 104%. Source | Partly |
| NZ First | Borrows | 20% small-firm tax rate and BNZ buy-back. An unfunded tax cut and debt-funded state purchase add to borrowing without a tested productivity path. Source | Partly |
| Te Pāti Māori | Neutral | Wealth, company and land taxes. Revenue roughly matches its tax cuts, so 2050 debt barely moves (95%); nothing on Super. Source | No |
| Te Pāti Māori | Neutral | Land banking tax and vacant house tax. Penalises idle land and homes, but higher company tax and an offshore profits tax may deter investment. Source | No |
| Opportunity | Neutral | Land value tax, Citizen's Income, infrastructure borrowing. A broader tax base nets about $1.9b a year from 2038, but $60b of borrowing and the health target take 2050 debt to 100% (138% with left-out costs). Source | No |
| Opportunity | Builds | Land value tax replacing taxes on work. Taxing land rather than work and capital is the least distorting tax, and lower house prices free capital for productive use. Source | No |
Since 19 October (not yet scored)
- Labour: Keep NZ Super eligibility at 65, with no stated funding (final Stuff leaders' debate, 20 October). Source
All sources for this grouping are listed on the sources page.