NZ Election 2026 · The Parties, the Issues and the Long Game

The parties · 5 of 7, by current seats

NZ First

At a glance

Poll average (%)
9.9
Readiness to 2050 /100
33 poor
Voter priorities /100
39 weak
Confidence it happens
Low
Fiscal detail
None

Current settings score 58 on Readiness to 2050 and 55 on Voter priorities. Confidence is shown beside the scores, never added to them.

Grouping scores

Select a grouping for the rationale and sources behind each score.

Who

Founded by Winston Peters in 1993. In the current coalition, with four ministers. Says it brings "balance and stability to government".

The pitch

Economic nationalism and tighter citizenship. The "two old parties" have no economic strategy; New Zealand must "double the economy by 2050".

Coalition stance and bottom lines

Rules out Labour, and says it will "never" deal with Te Pāti Māori. No explicit 2026 commitment to National or ACT. Bottom lines: an NZ First Immigration minister, no asset sales, no Super age rise, leave Paris.

Five headline policies

  1. Buys back BNZ and merges it with Kiwibank
  2. Creates a Future Fund of up to $100b for infrastructure
  3. Splits power companies into generators and retailers
  4. Pays $5,000 a year for each child's first three years
  5. Restricts voting and NZ Super to citizens from 2029

Who gains / Who pays

Who gainsWho pays
Parents of young childrenNot stated
Small firmsFuture taxpayers, through borrowing
Regions with mines and drillingNon-citizen residents

On the long game

  • Borrows: all four pressures
  • Global risks with a concrete plan: 2 of 5 (Great-power conflict, including nuclear war; Erosion of trust and governance)
  • Governing for the long term: Four-year term: Plans · With other parties: Silent · Institutions: Acknowledges · Inheritance: Weakens
Four pressures to 2050
PressureEffectWould it last?
Ageing and the fiscal gapBorrowsPartly
Productivity and incomesBorrowsUnlikely
Climate and resilienceBorrowsUnlikely
The infrastructure deficitBorrowsUnlikely
Five global risks
RiskAt homeWith others
Advanced AI going badlyAcknowledgesSilent
Climate change and ecological breakdownSilentAcknowledges
Engineered pandemicsAcknowledgesAcknowledges
Great-power conflict, including nuclear warPlansSilent
Erosion of trust and governancePlansSilent

Governing for the long term

NZ First: governing for the long term

Rating on each count, Rated, never added to the scores. Rests on a stated value: long-term plans should survive a change of government.

CommittedPlansAcknowledgesSilentWeakens

Rated, never added to the scores. Rests on a stated value: long-term plans should survive a change of government. NZ First: Four-year term Plans, Plans with other parties Silent, Long-term institutions Acknowledges, Honours what it inherits Weakens.

NZ First
Ratings from party documents and votes to the evidence cut-off; every rating, note and source is in continuity-ratings.csv on the sources page.
Sources for these ratings

Watch for

On 28 August it said Super eligibility would not change; on 6 September it said Super would be for citizens only from 2029. About $2.3b a year of costed spending has no funding source. If the $100b fund were borrowed, interest at 4.5% would be about $4.5b a year. The BNZ buy-back would be funded from ACC, banking bonds, Crown debt and KiwiSaver capital, with BNZ profits paying it back; the price is not stated. Its Real score (27 of 100) is the lowest of any party, because almost nothing is paid for. Its spending plans sit awkwardly with a coalition goal of shrinking government.

Party order is by seats in the current Parliament. 7 parties, the same template each.