NZ Election 2026 · The Parties, the Issues and the Long Game

The parties · 6 of 7, by current seats

Te Pāti Māori

At a glance

Poll average (%)
about 1.5
Readiness to 2050 /100
35 weak
Voter priorities /100
40 weak
Confidence it happens
Low
Fiscal detail
Tax package

Current settings score 58 on Readiness to 2050 and 55 on Voter priorities. Confidence is shown beside the scores, never added to them.

Grouping scores

Select a grouping for the rationale and sources behind each score.

Who

Formed in 2004 after the foreshore and seabed hīkoi. It holds four Māori electorates. One MP has left to form a Te Tai Tokerau Party.

The pitch

Crown systems were designed without Māori. Move authority, money and land to Māori-led bodies, bind the Crown to Te Tiriti, and redistribute wealth through tax.

Coalition stance and bottom lines

Will work with "anyone serious about removing this Government". Names no partners and no written bottom lines. Runs a one-person list and asks for party votes to go to the Greens or Labour.

Five headline policies

  1. Makes Waitangi Tribunal findings binding and entrenches Te Tiriti
  2. Removes income tax on the first $30,000; sets 48% top rate
  3. Taxes net wealth above $2m at 1.5% to 2.5%
  4. Rebuilds the Māori Health Authority
  5. Withdraws oil and gas permits within five years

Who gains / Who pays

Who gainsWho pays
Low and middle earnersPeople with over $2m
Māori-led servicesEarners above $300,000
RentersHome buyers (5% stamp duty; first-home buyers under $1m exempt)

On the long game

  • Neutral: all four pressures
  • Global risks with a concrete plan: 2 of 5 (Great-power conflict, including nuclear war; Erosion of trust and governance)
  • Governing for the long term: Four-year term: Weakens · With other parties: Silent · Institutions: Acknowledges · Inheritance: Acknowledges
Four pressures to 2050
PressureEffectWould it last?
Ageing and the fiscal gapNeutralUnlikely
Productivity and incomesNeutralUnlikely
Climate and resilienceNeutralUnlikely
The infrastructure deficitNeutralUnlikely
Five global risks
RiskAt homeWith others
Advanced AI going badlyAcknowledgesSilent
Climate change and ecological breakdownAcknowledgesSilent
Engineered pandemicsSilentSilent
Great-power conflict, including nuclear warPlansPlans
Erosion of trust and governancePlansAcknowledges

Governing for the long term

Te Pāti Māori: governing for the long term

Rating on each count, Rated, never added to the scores. Rests on a stated value: long-term plans should survive a change of government.

CommittedPlansAcknowledgesSilentWeakens

Rated, never added to the scores. Rests on a stated value: long-term plans should survive a change of government. Te Pāti Māori: Four-year term Weakens, Plans with other parties Silent, Long-term institutions Acknowledges, Honours what it inherits Acknowledges.

Te Pāti Māori
Ratings from party documents and votes to the evidence cut-off; every rating, note and source is in continuity-ratings.csv on the sources page.
Sources for these ratings

Watch for

A "$1 billion" investment in ending tax avoidance is booked as revenue; if it is spending, the package is $0.8b short. Doubling benefits, free primary and dental care, phased free public transport and a universal student allowance carry no cost. The party states a net $4.1b; on our sums from its line items, the package raises $20.8b and costs $16.7b. A separate "$3 billion" from landlord tax changes sits outside the tax table. Its party vote understates its support, because it asks supporters to give that vote to Labour or the Greens.

Party order is by seats in the current Parliament. 7 parties, the same template each.